Thursday 8 April 2010

Grand National Pinstickers' Guide

Madison Du Berlais
A much improved chaser since falling at the 8th in 2008 but has so far failed to show the same form he did in the 2009 season. Loves Aintree and could stay the trip. Would need to be back to his best to figure of top-weight but the national fences may bring back some of his spark - 50/1. ***

Mon Mome
Last year's winner looks sure to give another bold showing and, given his third in the Gold Cup, is arguably the best treated former-winner I can remember. That said, it's such tough ask to win back-to-back Nationals - 12/1. ***

Vic Venturi
Already won over the National fences when taking the Becher Chase earlier this season and in theory is well handicapped having won the Bobbyjo Chase off this mark LTO. However I still believe there are better handicapped horses in the field - 20/1. **

Black Apalachi
Second-favourite with some bookmakers but failed to complete in 2008 and 2009. Was still going well when unseating at Becher's last year but it's possible his best chance has gone - 14/1. **

Joe Lively
A busy (and succesful) novice season in 07/08 has taken it's toll. Good jumper but looked weighted to the hilt - 100/1. *

Dont Push It
The pick of Tony McCoy but in reality it's similar to Fabio Cappello picking between Darren Bent and Emile Heskey if there was no Wayne Rooney - 25/1. *

Comply Or Die
Almost pulled off back-to-back wins when runner-up to Mon Mome last year (won in 2008). Sure to give another good account - 20/1. ***

Tricky Trickster
Everything was going to plan for the long time ante-post favourite until he run poorly in the Gold Cup. The National is only his 7th chase start (10th career start) and it may all be a bit too soon - 16/1. **

Niche Market
Last year's Irish Grand National winner has been brought along steadily this year. Should be tailor-made for this given his running style, jumping and stamina reserves. Very likely to hold a chance (at least) turning for home - 18/1. ****

Made In Taipan
Massive leap of faith needed with regards to him staying the trip and handicapped on totally irrelevant form (2miles) - 200/1. *

Dream Alliance
Welsh National winner but won't get the slog he needs due to the decent ground, lacks the class to win the real Grand National - 40/1. *

Cloudy Lane
Favourite in 2008 but could only manage sixth behind Comply Or Die and unseated at the Chair last year. Probably doesn't quite stay 4m4f but well handicapped on best form. I can see him running well for a long way but his challenge may peter out - 40/1. **

Nozic
Runs in the colours of Sun readers but more chance of Ann Widdecombe appearing on Page 3 on Monday than this fella making the back page. Another with stamina concerns - 100/1. *

My Will
Well fancied when third last year (2lbs lower this year) in a race that wasn't run to suit. Came into that race in fine form but that isn't the case this season. A return to form, a possibility over these fences, could see him run well again - 40/1. ***

Pablo Du Charmil
Big fan of trainer and jockey combo but only ever won over 2m2f and extensively campaign at and around that trip - 150/1. *

Ballyholland
Another with no evidence to suggest he will stay - 33/1. *

Backstage
Cleared the fences when eigth in last year's Foxhunters and laid out for this since. Trainer already won a Grand National in his short career but I can't help thinking that his priced is based on his trainer's qualities rather than his own - 25/1. **

Beat The Boys
Should be nicknamed "Pip" at home as he has two ways of running, seems to either win or fail to complete. Last thirteen runs read 11P13PFP1P1PP. Hard to see the reason behind such inconsistency but would will run well if on a going day. One of the better three-figure priced horses - 150/1. **

Preists Leap
Likes it bottomless and all best form on right-handed undulating tracks. Be a fish out of water here - 125/1. *

Snowy Morning
Odds-on to complete having finished third in 2008 and ninth last year. Back to his best recently and well handicapped on recent and best form. However not many win their first National at their third attempt. Must run well but not definitely not a win-only horse - 16/1. ***

Can't Buy Time
Was cantering all over Tricky Trickster in last year's National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival but failed to see out the 4m. Would need to be in a horse-box to stay the National trip and recently abandonned by McCoy - 33/1. *

Big Fella Thanks
Sixth as a novice last year on just his seventh chase start. A year older, more experienced and looks to have improved, obvious chance considering he is 3lbs lower this year - 8/1. *****

State Of Play
Raced just once since fourth in last year's event. Such a tough ask to win this on the back of a light campaign, even for one who goes well fresh. Woefully short (3rd-favourite) with some bookmakers - 20/1. *

Character Building
Doesn't always find as much as expected in a finish so will always be well handicapped if they can get him to click in the latter stages of races. Best performance by some way came at the Cheltenham Festival last year when winning the Kim Muir - fitted with a first-time tongue-tie that day which oddly has been applied since, I'm convinced he needs headgear help of some form - 20/1. *

Ellersie George
Sure to be leading at some stage but has a tendancy to jump right. Will probably make too much use of himself in the first circuit and drop away - 100/1. *

Eric's Charm
In fine form but this couldn't have been the original plan for Oliver Sherwood's veteran. Fell over the fences in the Topham in 2008 - 50/1. *

King Johns Castle
Travelled like a dream but out-stayed by Comply Or Die when runner-up in 2008 and injury kept him out of last year's race. Impossible to tell if he is back to his best, having been campaigned over hurdles of late, but obvious chance if he can reproduce 2008's run - 33/1. **

Conna Castle
Another Irish two-miler to ignore - 150/1. *

Ballyfitz
Put in the odd blunder (putting it mildly) but well handicapped on best form. If, and it's a big if, he takes to these fences, then he will run well. However, as much as I don't like to say it, one of the big fences may cause him problems. Taking everything into consideration, still one of the better rank outsiders - 66/1. **

Ollie Magern
Always thought the National would be ideal for this horse; front runner, goes well left-handed and jumps well. However he performed so well in his early career that he was two high in the handicap for races such as this. Regressing these days, only one win since 2005, and fell early last year, but could give Tom Molloy a good ride in front rank for a way. Not entitled to be the rank outsider - 200/1. **

Arbor Supreme
Will stay but I worry he hasn't had enough racing this year. Under-priced on what he has actaully achieved - 18/1. **

Maljimar
His third in the 4m Cross Country chase at Cheltenham goes some way to proving he will stay. Not easy to win with, needs to be produced right, so possibly not a National type, however is over priced, well handicapped and could run well without winning - 33/1. **

The Package
Has always been well regarded and it's surely a matter of time before this horse wins a big race. Well handicapped for his and looks in need of a longer trip than the 3m he has recently been campaigned over. Probably the pick of the weights but this may have come a little too soon for
the seven year old - 14/1. ***

Piraya
Obvious stamina concerns - 150/1. *

Irish Raptor
76261U over the National fences but all those efforts were over the shorter trips in the Topham or Becher chases. A fair bet to finish but surely connections would've run this eleven year old over this sort of trip already, had they really believed him to be a stayer - 33/1. *

Cerium
Gallant performance to finish fifth last year despite finishing with an injury, however looks massively flattered on that and easily over loooked - 66/1. *

Palypso De Creek
Raced just four times in the UK but was forth in the Becher Chase for one of those. Not quite a two-star chance but probably not entitled to be as big as 100/1. *

Hello Bud
Scottish National winner last year and the ideal Aintree horse; travels front rank, jumps well, stays well. Shame it's taken this long (now 12) to get him high enough in the handicap to take his chance. Definitely capable of a big run at big odds - 50/1. ***

Flintoff
With just three runs in two years it's a worry he is physically or mentally ready for his - 66/1. *

Royal Rosa
Cost £340,000 back in 2003 but never lived up to his price-tag. Connections were keen for him to take his chance and he sneaks in as second reserve. Placed over the fences in November and sixth in the 2008 Scottish National, however doesn't look particualrly well treated off a mark of 139 - 100/1. *

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