A Vacant Belt Come March?

Despite what the market currently tells us, due to the leading protagonists vulnerabilities, this season's Queen Mother Champion Chase could well be up for grabs.

Master Minded has disappointed at home as well as on the course recently, and with bone scans planned we must look for a viable alternative.

Current 2nd favourite Big Zeb is classy enough but with four falls from eleven chase starts to date, a clear round at Cheltenham is far from certain. If someone will lay me "fall no-bet" I'll get involved.

I was lucky enough to back Well Chief ante-post for the Arkle at 33/1. His legs were not as brittle back then, and as brilliant as he is around Cheltenham, he is no longer an ante-post proposition. I'll wait to see what condition he is come the day before I include him in any calculations.

It's a possibility these three may not be in the race with a circuit to run on that Wednesday in March, so with most firms going double-figures bar, there must be some risk-free ante-post value around. Risk-free in the sense that bigger priced selections backed now will be a similar price if the big guns line up, but will be a fraction of the price if any of the A-Team fail in make it.

Voy Por Ustedes, Crackaway Jack and Schindlers Hunt will almost certainly run in more suitable races so are far from ideal ante-post possibilities.

Last season's Arkle 1-2, Forpadydeplasterer and Kalahari King, don't interest me the prices. I still believe both will need further to be at their best and it's no surprise to see them a similar price for the Ryanair Chase.

Barker's (who?) 12/1 quote looks very stingy indeed. It's solely based on his two improved runs last April, the last of which a 15l victory over Forpadydeplaster. In my opinion this one time 90-odd handicap hurdler hasn't the class to be a Champion Chaser and his odds are at least a third of what they should be.

It leaves me with an obvious and perhaps uninspiring selection in Petit Robin. A 9l third at 12/1 last season on only his fourth chase start, he ran better than the formline suggest when a well-beaten 7th on his final start 2m4f Melling Chase at Aintree.

After Cheltenham his stable spoke of step ups in trip to "avoid the winner (Master Minded)". Given the sudden uncertainty regarding Master Minded it wouldn't surprise me if connections re-nag on that idea and had another crack at the 2m prize.

His left-handed form is very decent and with another year behind him he may not put in his one blunder per race - if that is the case there is every reason to believe he can improve on his 3rd last year, even if class acts do show up. If they don't it leaves the door wide open and only a just a reproduction of last year's effort will see him fight out the finish.

A speculative E/W at Ladbrokes and William Hill's 33/1 is in order.

STOP PRESS - AN UPDATE!!!

It's been some time since I updated this blog. Time constraints was one reason but I was also waiting for some news before making a decision with this blog.

This blog will now be just an update of results. My thoughts and articles can soon be found on a weekly basis in Raceform Update.

The flat season is now over and the line has performed very well in the difficult period since.

Below is a record of bets so far in the A/W season, as well as all NH bets so far this autumn.

A/W 2009/10
Tangerine Tress 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1
Colourful Move 0.5pt win - 3rd
Eagle Nebula 0.5pt win - 2nd
Ebraam 2pts win - WON 0.56/1
Jewelled 0.25pt E/W - lost
Chosen One 0.25pt E/W - lost
Carbon Hoofprint 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ensnare 0.5pt win - 2nd
Decameron 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bountiful Bay 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bestowed 2pts win - 2nd
Crimson Ribbon 0.75pt win - lost
Critical Path 0.25pt win - lost
Black Eagle 1.5pts win - WON 5/6
Fourtowns Flyer 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 7/1
Insolence 0.75pt win - WON 5.2/1
Samaaha 0.5pt win - lost
Beat The Shower 0.25pt E/W - lost
Moon Money 0.25pt E/W - lost
Business Class 0.25pt E/W lost
Kings Colour 0.25pt E/W - WON 7/1
Farcombe 0.5pt win - lost
Moojeh 0.5pt win - lost
Red Suede Shoes 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
Dance The Star 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 7/1
Black Stocking 0.25pt E/W - lost
Castlecarra 0.25pt E/W - lost
Johnny Mudball 0.5pt win - 2nd
Prescription 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ebony Eyes 0.25pt win - WON 8/1
Key Regard 0.25pt win - lost
Maria Di Scozia 0.25pt E/W - lost
Istidaam 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1
Dajen 0.25pt E/W - lost
Sydneysider 0.25pt E/W - lost
Turbo Shandy 0.25pt win - lost
Summer Affair 0.25pt win - lost
Addienaa 0.25pt E/W - lost
Onceaponatime 0.5pt win - lost
Sutton Venny 0.25pt E/W - lost
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1
Stormy Summer 0.25pt E/W - lost

Bets in 31 races
11 winners
Staked 24.75pts
Returns 30.04pts
Profit 5.29pts
Yield 21%

NH Season "proper" (Autumn onwards)
Is It Me 1pt win - WON 13/8
Poquelin 0.5pt E/W - WON 9/2
Fourty Acers 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 13/2
Seven Is My Number 0.25pt E/W - 4th 15/2
Poker Di Sivola 0.25pt E/W - lost
Killyglen 1pt win - 2nd
Fairyland 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 4/1
Gracechurch 0.5pt win - 2nd
Manyriverstocross 1pt win - WON 10/11
Peppertree Lane 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 9/1
Holoko Heights 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
Roll Along 1pt win - lost
Copper Bleu 0.5pt win - 2nd
Inchidaly Rock 0.5pt win - WON 4/6
Chapoturgeon 0.25pt E/W - Fell
Nothern Alliance 0.25pt E/W - lost
Harry Tricker 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 6/1
Ronaldo Des Mottes 0.25pt E/W - lost
Nomecheki 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Bormo 0.5pt win - 3rd
Zabeel Palace 0.5pt win - WON 9/4
Raise You Five 0.5pt win - WON 10/3
Whiteoak 0.5pt win - WON 15/8
Suntini 0.5pt win - WON 3/1

Bets in 20 races
15 winners
Staked 15.5pts
Returns 26.93pts
Profit 11.43pts
Yield 74%