Pontefract
3.30
This Ones For Eddy 1pt win - 2nd (btn hd) 9/2 (adv) => 9/4
4.05
Summers Lease 0.5pt win - unpl
Rio Guru 0.25pt E/W - unpl
5.15
Uncle Bertie 0.5pt win - 7th
Princess Rainbow 0.5pt win - unpl
Ascot
5.05
Mister Ross 0.5pt win - 8th
Blue Spartan 0.5pt win - unpl
Priti Fabulous 0.5pt win - unpl
Kempton
6.50
Bramalea 0.5pt E/W - 8th
7.50
James Pollard 1pt win - 7th
Another Try 0.25pt win - unpl
Cwm Rhondda 0.25pt win - unpl
8.20
Crown Choice 1.5pts win - WON 7/4 (adv)
9.20
Colourful Move 0.25pt E/W - WON 14/1 (adv)
Lucky Dancer 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 10/1
A real 'Houdini' act to show a profit on the day (+0.62pts). The afternoon's racing wasn't easy, there were odd betting patterns throughout the day including landed gambles and massive drifters.
First up was the 3.30 at Ponty, was keen on This Ones For Eddy when he was an easy winner over c&d last Monday and despite a 6lb penalty he still looked well treated on his A/W form. The race was set up for a finisher due to the idiotic pace set by Silvestre De Souza on Jebel Tara, This Ones For Eddy (happier when in front) was forced to chase this suicidal early gallop and paid for it inside the past when he was collared on the line by Blue Charm. He looked the winner until the final strides and without doubt was the best horse at the weights, the result was hard to swallow. There is no reason to suggest this horse is inferior on turf so if the handicapper continues to show him leniency on the green stuff I will continue to follow him.
The fillies handicap at 4.05 had a trappy look to it, it's hard to evaluate the chances of 3yo fillies against their elders and it was indeed a 3yo, Faldal, who took the race. Rio Guru lost all chance when badly hampered and Summers Lease seems ground dependent.
The market suggested there was just one horse in the 5.15 and that did turn out to be the case with Timocracy scoring at 9/4 having been backed from 7/1 on course. They finished in a bunch behind and many of those are better than they showed here, Moonstreaker and Old Romney did well after tardy starts and Uncle Bertie, who was a big drifter, didn't get the clearest of passages late on and will find a race off his current mark.
It was a similar story for the last at Ascot, they market spoke, or shouted, in favour of two horses. Mount Hadley and Trafalgar Bay were backed down from massive early prices to 1st and 2nd favourite. Every man and his dog knew about the former, owned by Michael Tabor, perhaps connections of many rivals 'decided' that this wasn't their day. Those at the head of the morning market, Mister Ross, Blue Spartan and Brouhaha, had doubled in price by the off.
The gambles finished 1-2, and were clear of the 3rd, however a number in behind are worth another chance, especially those drawn high as jockeys on those were responsible for strange tactics. They broke well enough (as expected due to a number of prominent racers), and originally kept straight in their own group down the middle of the course, then after one furlong they chose to switch to the stands side rail, losing ground and all chance in the process.
Blue Spartan, drawn highest of all in stall 20, ended up scraping paint on the stands side rail, you would have been forgiven for thinking he was drawn 1! Despite an unclear passage he made moderate late headway passed beaten horses. Mister Ross found himself well behind thanks to the aforementioned manoeuvre but got into his stride at the halfway mark and made decent headway out wide. Running almost alone in the middle of the track he could only finish 8th. It was a fine effort under the circumstances. Priti Fabulous ran better than her finishing position suggests, she travelled fairly well throughout but blew up and was then heavily eased. She will come on a bundle for this. All three are worth another chance.
Despite a disappointing day I was full of hope going into the Kempton card, confident of a winner or two. Although again got off to a disappointing start with Bramalea running poorly in the first.
James Pollard (7.50) is a frustrating type, without doubt he has ability and is better than his rating suggests, however usually ruins is chances by refusing to settle in his races. With the experienced Jimmy Fortune booked I felt all may be in place for this horse to finally show his best. Connections decided on a change of tactics and decided to let him bowl along in front, obviously an attempt to get him to settle better. He travelled well in front, he didn't pull as he was allowed to stride on, but when asked for his effort he found nil, weakening tamely inside the last. Front-running would not have been a tactic I would've used with this horse, far too much use was made of him early, he needs to be kept together, given cover and allowed to settle (if possible) in a bunch, only then we will see the best of this horse - obviously he is not an easy ride for jockeys. He may be one to play in-running in future.
Without doubt the bet of the night was Crown Choice, making his handicap debut in the 8.50. He looked a horse to follow when losing his maiden tag earlier in the month in a race that has started to work out well. It looked as if the handicapper had taken a massive chance allotting him a mark of 80 and that did turn out to be the case as he ran out a ready winner.
I thought the market had it all wrong for the staying handicap at 9.20. I gave little chance to those at the head of the market and decided that Lucky Dancer and Colourful Move were overpriced at their morning prices of 10/1 and 14/1 respectively. Surprisingly they were available at much bigger on course before attracting support before the off. They travelled in first and second throughout and never looked like getting caught. It was Lucky Dancer who looked the likelier of the two to win, travelling strongly in the lead but he was outstayed in the final half furlong by Colourful Move. As suggested after his last run, perhaps he is worth a try over 1m6f.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 105
Winners 37
P/L +29.74pts
ROI 23%
All-Weather
Bets 29
Winners 11
P/L +16.60pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 67
Winners 21
P/L +4.13pts
ROI 5%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Thursday 30 April 2009
Tuesday 28 April 2009
Tuesday 28th April
Wincanton
2.20
Lady Friend 0.25pt E/W - brought down (2nd)
Bath
2.45
Magnitude 1pt win - unpl
Aypeeyes 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
5.40
Volito 0.5pt E/W - 7th
Lingfield
4.50
Azharia 0.5pt E/W - unpl
Nottingham
7.05
Hunting Country 1pt win - unpl
Red Jade 0.5pt win - 2nd
Stone Of Scone 0.5pt win - WON 12/1 (best odds g'td adv)
Back to winning ways (+2.38pts) thanks to a higher than expected SP on the final selection. The day didn't start well however when Lady Friend was brought down at the 2nd flight in the Wincanton opener.
Next up for me was the Bath seller at 2.45. Magnitude drifted alarmingly beforehand and ran no sort of race, my saver Aypeeyes, who looked the form choice on best form, stayed on well to save the day.
Volito was a rare 3yo flat runner for Jonjo O'Neil but this handicap debutant was up against after getting outpaced after some early scrimmaging. He could be capable of better over further.
Bahamian Bliss was well backed for the 4.15 at Lingfield and her finishing position of 4th does not do her performance justice. Despite a slow start she got herself into contention at the furlong marker and her challenged only petered out because she was positioned up the dreaded inside. She can find a similar event.
Jamie Spencer reported that Azharia (4.50) did not face the kick back, that may be the case but she faced the heavier kick back of Southwell on debut. Personally I feel she may fare better when not steadied to race 3l off the 2nd last horse. She showed a consistent level of form on her previous three starts when ridden by Callan and Golam and this run can be ignored.
The 7.05 at Nottingham was the race of the day for and I felt by backing Hunting Country, Stone Of Scone and Red Jade I was certain to have the winner. I believe the trio are well handicapped and set for decent seasons. Stone Of Scone has always been highly thought of and his maiden win last May at Great Leighs could not have worked out any better. The 2nd - 8th that day went on to win 15 races between them and many are rated in the 80s or 90s, so a mark of 90 looked well within his capabilities provising all was well after a year off the course. Although well backed this morning he was a massive drifter on course, after opening 9/2 he drifted to an SP of 12/1! The on-course market got it badly wrong as he came from pretty much last to first to land the spoils, despite idling slightly when hitting the front. He deserves plenty of credit for this win and has unlimited potential.
Red Jade was the horse he touched off into 2nd place and Karl Burke's colt lost nothing in defeat. The 70,000gns purchase out of John Gosden's yard was another who looked well handicapped on last season's maiden form. He travelled much the best throughout and looked the likely winner until the powerful run of Stone Of Scone. Even though the handicapper will probably have his say, compensation looks a formality - keep him on your side.
Hunting Country was one of the first beat, perhaps finding the rain softened ground against him.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 97
Winners 35
P/L +29.36pts
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 25
Winners 9
P/L +11.72pts
ROI 42%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 63
Winners 21
P/L +8.63pts
ROI 11%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
2.20
Lady Friend 0.25pt E/W - brought down (2nd)
Bath
2.45
Magnitude 1pt win - unpl
Aypeeyes 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
5.40
Volito 0.5pt E/W - 7th
Lingfield
4.50
Azharia 0.5pt E/W - unpl
Nottingham
7.05
Hunting Country 1pt win - unpl
Red Jade 0.5pt win - 2nd
Stone Of Scone 0.5pt win - WON 12/1 (best odds g'td adv)
Back to winning ways (+2.38pts) thanks to a higher than expected SP on the final selection. The day didn't start well however when Lady Friend was brought down at the 2nd flight in the Wincanton opener.
Next up for me was the Bath seller at 2.45. Magnitude drifted alarmingly beforehand and ran no sort of race, my saver Aypeeyes, who looked the form choice on best form, stayed on well to save the day.
Volito was a rare 3yo flat runner for Jonjo O'Neil but this handicap debutant was up against after getting outpaced after some early scrimmaging. He could be capable of better over further.
Bahamian Bliss was well backed for the 4.15 at Lingfield and her finishing position of 4th does not do her performance justice. Despite a slow start she got herself into contention at the furlong marker and her challenged only petered out because she was positioned up the dreaded inside. She can find a similar event.
Jamie Spencer reported that Azharia (4.50) did not face the kick back, that may be the case but she faced the heavier kick back of Southwell on debut. Personally I feel she may fare better when not steadied to race 3l off the 2nd last horse. She showed a consistent level of form on her previous three starts when ridden by Callan and Golam and this run can be ignored.
The 7.05 at Nottingham was the race of the day for and I felt by backing Hunting Country, Stone Of Scone and Red Jade I was certain to have the winner. I believe the trio are well handicapped and set for decent seasons. Stone Of Scone has always been highly thought of and his maiden win last May at Great Leighs could not have worked out any better. The 2nd - 8th that day went on to win 15 races between them and many are rated in the 80s or 90s, so a mark of 90 looked well within his capabilities provising all was well after a year off the course. Although well backed this morning he was a massive drifter on course, after opening 9/2 he drifted to an SP of 12/1! The on-course market got it badly wrong as he came from pretty much last to first to land the spoils, despite idling slightly when hitting the front. He deserves plenty of credit for this win and has unlimited potential.
Red Jade was the horse he touched off into 2nd place and Karl Burke's colt lost nothing in defeat. The 70,000gns purchase out of John Gosden's yard was another who looked well handicapped on last season's maiden form. He travelled much the best throughout and looked the likely winner until the powerful run of Stone Of Scone. Even though the handicapper will probably have his say, compensation looks a formality - keep him on your side.
Hunting Country was one of the first beat, perhaps finding the rain softened ground against him.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 97
Winners 35
P/L +29.36pts
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 25
Winners 9
P/L +11.72pts
ROI 42%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 63
Winners 21
P/L +8.63pts
ROI 11%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Monday 27 April 2009
Monday 27th April
Newcastle
2.50 Touchdown 1.5pts win - N/R
4.20 Thebes 1pt win - 3rd
Plumpton
4.00 Spanchil Hill 1.5pts win - 6th
Southwell
7.10 If You Knew Suzy 0.5pt win - 4th
2.50 Touchdown 1.5pts win - N/R
4.20 Thebes 1pt win - 3rd
Plumpton
4.00 Spanchil Hill 1.5pts win - 6th
Southwell
7.10 If You Knew Suzy 0.5pt win - 4th
A loss shown for the first time in nine days. Touchdown is a well handicapped horse, I was fairly confident he'd win the 2.50 so was disappointed when I heard he was a non-runner. He hasn't made it to the course that often, has obviously been hard to train and perhaps connections didn't want to risk him on the 'firm in places' ground.
I persisted with Thebes in the sprint at 4.20 as I believe he is a well handicapped horse. He travelled by far the best throughout and looked the winner when Royston Ffrench moved him out to challenge. For me he didn't want to go by, his challenged petered out as soon as he was in a challenging position and he even lost 2nd place near the line. I strongly feel the horse would benefit for the application of headgear, something I touched on earlier in this blog after Thebes' run at Kempton. That, or a return to front running tactics will see this horse score of his current mark.
Spanchil Hill was disappointing when looking to have an obvious chance in the selling handicap hurdle at Plumpton. Perhaps too much use was made of him, although it could be he is a better horse over fences.
If You Knew Suzy ran no race at Southwell but Pipers Piping took the eye in the following race, travelling well and looking all over the winner until the last half furlong. Jamie Osborne's 3yo appears versatile with regards to surfaces so will give connections plenty of options in the near future.
At Windsor, Plaisterer showed enough to suggest there are races to be won with her. She did well to get into contention after being shuffled to the rear early in the race. She swished her tail inside the last though and obviously isn't totally straightforward. Cyborg showed promise in bumpers and maidens last year and he also ran well in 4th, he should find a similar race.
In the following race Onceaponatime did well to finish 3rd considering he raced wide throughout with little cover and would've prefered the rain to stay away. He wasn't knocked about either, he could be about to strike now the handicapper has cut him some slack, although I don't think he is the toughest in a finish.
Sunday 26 April 2009
Sunday 26th April
Brighton
3.15
Saints Bay 0.5pt E/W - unpl
3.50
Lady Hestia 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Clazaghe 1pt win - 5th
4.25
Rapid City 1pt win - WON 4/1 (best odds gt'd adv)
Tignello 1pt win - 7th
5.25
Green Velvet 0.5pt E/W - unpl
4.5pts profit on the day making it 15.8pts profit over the past 8 days.
Many punters dislike Brighton but from a betting point of view it's one of my favourite tracks, I rarely come away a loser and all today's best bets were at the Sussex track. In the claimer (3.15) El Dececy had an obvious chance at the weights but at the prices I was prepared to take a chance with Richard Hannon's 3yo filly, Saints Bay, at the other end of the weights. She was tailed off after a furlong and it was reported she returned lame.
I talked up Lady Hestia's future chances after her last run on Thursday 9th April. She made no mistake on this, her 2nd handicap start, knuckling down well to score - she should improve further. Calzaghe, a winning selection last Sunday, was arguably an unlucky loser back in 5th. He was denied a clear run at crucial time and wasn't knocked about once in the clear.
It's been some time since Rapid City contested a handicap, he has held his own in claiming and selling company recently and looked well weighted on his old handicap form. We've come to expect improvement when a horse joins Jim Best and indeed Rapid City did make his return to handicap company a winning one. He was a decent effort considering he pulled hard early (as did many) due to the dawdling pace. He could follow up if the handicapper is fair. Tignello was one of many who suffered due to the 'gallop' and is capable of better.
In the last Travis Block allowed his mount, Green Velvet, to be carried wide by Toby Atkinson on Multahab. Both horses lost all chance due to this manoeuvre and their form lines are best ignored. Who's more foolish? The fool, or the fool that follows him?
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 89
Winners 33
P/L +29.98pts
ROI 28%
All-Weather
Bets 23
Winners 9
P/L +13.22pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 7
Winners 5
P/L +11.01pts
ROI 138%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 59
Winners 19
P/L +5.75pts
ROI 8%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
3.15
Saints Bay 0.5pt E/W - unpl
3.50
Lady Hestia 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Clazaghe 1pt win - 5th
4.25
Rapid City 1pt win - WON 4/1 (best odds gt'd adv)
Tignello 1pt win - 7th
5.25
Green Velvet 0.5pt E/W - unpl
4.5pts profit on the day making it 15.8pts profit over the past 8 days.
Many punters dislike Brighton but from a betting point of view it's one of my favourite tracks, I rarely come away a loser and all today's best bets were at the Sussex track. In the claimer (3.15) El Dececy had an obvious chance at the weights but at the prices I was prepared to take a chance with Richard Hannon's 3yo filly, Saints Bay, at the other end of the weights. She was tailed off after a furlong and it was reported she returned lame.
I talked up Lady Hestia's future chances after her last run on Thursday 9th April. She made no mistake on this, her 2nd handicap start, knuckling down well to score - she should improve further. Calzaghe, a winning selection last Sunday, was arguably an unlucky loser back in 5th. He was denied a clear run at crucial time and wasn't knocked about once in the clear.
It's been some time since Rapid City contested a handicap, he has held his own in claiming and selling company recently and looked well weighted on his old handicap form. We've come to expect improvement when a horse joins Jim Best and indeed Rapid City did make his return to handicap company a winning one. He was a decent effort considering he pulled hard early (as did many) due to the dawdling pace. He could follow up if the handicapper is fair. Tignello was one of many who suffered due to the 'gallop' and is capable of better.
In the last Travis Block allowed his mount, Green Velvet, to be carried wide by Toby Atkinson on Multahab. Both horses lost all chance due to this manoeuvre and their form lines are best ignored. Who's more foolish? The fool, or the fool that follows him?
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 89
Winners 33
P/L +29.98pts
ROI 28%
All-Weather
Bets 23
Winners 9
P/L +13.22pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 7
Winners 5
P/L +11.01pts
ROI 138%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 59
Winners 19
P/L +5.75pts
ROI 8%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
The High Price of Success
There are many national hunt races that take plenty from their parcipants, none more so than the Whitbread Gold Cup (now Bet365 Gold Cup).
Many winners of the RSA Chase, Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand National regress thereafter but the Whitbread seems to halt progression more than any of those.
Looking back at previous winner's form after winning the Sandown finale makes for depressing reading...
Monkerhostin - 5725
Hot Weld - PP
Lacdoudal - 64430303863
Jack High - 3945351U9700472F46
Puntal - 68605527P87303P
Ad Hoc - 66F540F
Bounce Back - 0P63PF0U058P94
Ad Hoc - 753B451233U166F540F
Beau - 3P42U56279U0
Eulogy - U
Call It A Day - 2P443233FP569637
Harwell Lad - 52PP4
Ad Hoc fared best of those win two wins (once when regaining this) and a decent Grand National run. Call It A Day also ran well in the National as did Beau until coming to grief. However, despite their decent efforts it cannot be ignored that these two talented horses remained winless for the remainder of their careers. Let's no forget, these are the horses that fared best after winning this!
Reasoning behind this is clearly the inevitable hefty hike in the weights a Whitbread victory brings, plus the fact that his is a massive ask for any horse at the end of the season. Even those that came here relatively fresh would've been at least on the go at home for some months.
I expect similar future success (or not as the case may be) for this year's protaganists, expecially considering how the race was run. Although the time wasn't anything special, for most of the race the pace was suicidal. To see how breakneck this year's gallop was I have compared sectionals and splits with last years race which was on similar ground.
Sectionals
.....................To 3rd...To Pond...To Water...To Last...To Finish
2009.............1:20.........3:15..........5:25...........7:00.......7:18:20
2008.............1:23.........3:22..........5:31...........7:02.......7:16:50
Splits
..................Start=>3rd.....3rd=>Pond.....Pond=>Water.....Water=>Last.....Last=>Finish
2009...............1:20................1:55..................2:10......................1:35.....................0:18
2008...............1:23................1:59..................2:09......................1:31.....................0:15
This year's runners reached the final railway fence 6secs quicker than those in 2008 yet recorded a 90sec slower final time. It was simply a case of going too fast too early and it's no wonder they were barely out of canter inside the last, by that stage it was down to stamina alone. 2008 was a much more even, sensible, gallop.
The first four home yesterday, Hennessy, Briery Fox, Lacdoudal, and Church Island, all had extremely tough races, especially Hennessy, Lacdoudal and Church Island who ran extrodinarily well as they were up with/forcing the pace throughout.
I worry that the punishing gallop not only ruined many horses chances of winning yesterday, but may have finished or ruined the careers of those who coped with it. Taking this into account plus what history tells us regarding previous winners, it doesn't bode well for aforementioned quartet.
But what are horse and rider to do? Give up at the halfway stage when it's apparent the pace is dangerous? Tony McCoy did change his mind with regards to his intended front running tactics on Hennessy when it became apparent (to him at least), that the leader was going too fast, but that was to give his mount the best chance of winning this race. In such instances, should there be added thought regarding a horse's future?
Perhaps it's unrealistic to suggest so, racing is about winning and who would want to deny horses or connections their chance of greatness, after all you never know what's around the corner. However, it should always be taken into consideration that winning comes with a price, and sometimes that price is high.
Be lucky.
Many winners of the RSA Chase, Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand National regress thereafter but the Whitbread seems to halt progression more than any of those.
Looking back at previous winner's form after winning the Sandown finale makes for depressing reading...
Monkerhostin - 5725
Hot Weld - PP
Lacdoudal - 64430303863
Jack High - 3945351U9700472F46
Puntal - 68605527P87303P
Ad Hoc - 66F540F
Bounce Back - 0P63PF0U058P94
Ad Hoc - 753B451233U166F540F
Beau - 3P42U56279U0
Eulogy - U
Call It A Day - 2P443233FP569637
Harwell Lad - 52PP4
Ad Hoc fared best of those win two wins (once when regaining this) and a decent Grand National run. Call It A Day also ran well in the National as did Beau until coming to grief. However, despite their decent efforts it cannot be ignored that these two talented horses remained winless for the remainder of their careers. Let's no forget, these are the horses that fared best after winning this!
Reasoning behind this is clearly the inevitable hefty hike in the weights a Whitbread victory brings, plus the fact that his is a massive ask for any horse at the end of the season. Even those that came here relatively fresh would've been at least on the go at home for some months.
I expect similar future success (or not as the case may be) for this year's protaganists, expecially considering how the race was run. Although the time wasn't anything special, for most of the race the pace was suicidal. To see how breakneck this year's gallop was I have compared sectionals and splits with last years race which was on similar ground.
Sectionals
.....................To 3rd...To Pond...To Water...To Last...To Finish
2009.............1:20.........3:15..........5:25...........7:00.......7:18:20
2008.............1:23.........3:22..........5:31...........7:02.......7:16:50
Splits
..................Start=>3rd.....3rd=>Pond.....Pond=>Water.....Water=>Last.....Last=>Finish
2009...............1:20................1:55..................2:10......................1:35.....................0:18
2008...............1:23................1:59..................2:09......................1:31.....................0:15
This year's runners reached the final railway fence 6secs quicker than those in 2008 yet recorded a 90sec slower final time. It was simply a case of going too fast too early and it's no wonder they were barely out of canter inside the last, by that stage it was down to stamina alone. 2008 was a much more even, sensible, gallop.
The first four home yesterday, Hennessy, Briery Fox, Lacdoudal, and Church Island, all had extremely tough races, especially Hennessy, Lacdoudal and Church Island who ran extrodinarily well as they were up with/forcing the pace throughout.
I worry that the punishing gallop not only ruined many horses chances of winning yesterday, but may have finished or ruined the careers of those who coped with it. Taking this into account plus what history tells us regarding previous winners, it doesn't bode well for aforementioned quartet.
But what are horse and rider to do? Give up at the halfway stage when it's apparent the pace is dangerous? Tony McCoy did change his mind with regards to his intended front running tactics on Hennessy when it became apparent (to him at least), that the leader was going too fast, but that was to give his mount the best chance of winning this race. In such instances, should there be added thought regarding a horse's future?
Perhaps it's unrealistic to suggest so, racing is about winning and who would want to deny horses or connections their chance of greatness, after all you never know what's around the corner. However, it should always be taken into consideration that winning comes with a price, and sometimes that price is high.
Be lucky.
Saturday 25 April 2009
Saturday 25th April
Sandown
1.00
Nisaal 1pt win -unpl
Spotty Muldoon 0.5pt win - unpl
Ripon
2.55
Braille 0.5pt E/W - unpl
Haydock
6.40
Solas Alainn 1pt win - 3rd
Zuwaar 0.5pt win - WON 10/1 (adv)
7.10
Capucci 0.5pt E/W - 5th
A slight profit on the day (+0.5pt), continuing what has been a profitable and consistent week.
I felt afternoon's racing was too competitive for the most part and played in just two races. The first of which was the 1.00 at Sandown which turned out to be a total farce. The form for this race needs to be totally ripped up and forgotten. There was just one horse in the race, Twilight Star, who kicked clear early under Daryll Holland while the remainder chose to watch and admire rather than attempt to catch him. Perhaps the jump boys thought this was a 2m bumper at Towcester. The pack closed by the line but the winner never looked like being caught.
Hennessy landed the Bet365 Gold Cup under the McCoy drive at the end of a punishing gallop. There will be a separate post on this.
Tartan Bearer showed decent toe to pick up Pipedreamer who looked to have an unassailable lead inside the last. Not wanting to take anything away from the winner but it's possible the runner up got there a little too soon. Both these decent types look set for another solid season.
Light From Mars travelled like the winner in the 4.50 but Dunn'o rallied gamely to deny him. I believe the runner up is still improving and I'm hoping the handicapper leaves him alone for this effort so I can get stuck in next time out. Not for the first time in his career Tartan Gigha ran a strange race on turf. He looked a little unwilling at the halfway mark before running on well into 7th. There are races to be won with this horse but I feel he is happier on polytrack.
In the 6.40 Haydock I thought Zuwaar was over priced on the pick of his winter form and he bounced back to form. There may have been something amiss on his last start or perhaps he was feeling the affects of a busy A/W campaign, whatever the reason he benefited from a small break and was back to his best here. Solas Alainn looked slightly unlucky as he had little room inside the last, as I said on the line in the morning, it's a matter of time before this horse wins a staying handicap.
Capucci would've been close than 5th had he not dwelt badly in the stalls. He also refused to settle for the first half of the race, a result of his pilot urging him to make up that lost ground. He did well to put himself in with a chance at the one pole and could be ready to strike soon. It was a decent effort from Boy Blue in 3rd as he pulled ferociously in the first half of the race.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 85
Winners 31
P/L +25.48pts
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 23
Winners 9
P/L +13.22pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 7
Winners 5
P/L +11.01pts
ROI 138%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 55
Winners 17
P/L +1.25ts
ROI 2%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
1.00
Nisaal 1pt win -unpl
Spotty Muldoon 0.5pt win - unpl
Ripon
2.55
Braille 0.5pt E/W - unpl
Haydock
6.40
Solas Alainn 1pt win - 3rd
Zuwaar 0.5pt win - WON 10/1 (adv)
7.10
Capucci 0.5pt E/W - 5th
A slight profit on the day (+0.5pt), continuing what has been a profitable and consistent week.
I felt afternoon's racing was too competitive for the most part and played in just two races. The first of which was the 1.00 at Sandown which turned out to be a total farce. The form for this race needs to be totally ripped up and forgotten. There was just one horse in the race, Twilight Star, who kicked clear early under Daryll Holland while the remainder chose to watch and admire rather than attempt to catch him. Perhaps the jump boys thought this was a 2m bumper at Towcester. The pack closed by the line but the winner never looked like being caught.
Hennessy landed the Bet365 Gold Cup under the McCoy drive at the end of a punishing gallop. There will be a separate post on this.
Tartan Bearer showed decent toe to pick up Pipedreamer who looked to have an unassailable lead inside the last. Not wanting to take anything away from the winner but it's possible the runner up got there a little too soon. Both these decent types look set for another solid season.
Light From Mars travelled like the winner in the 4.50 but Dunn'o rallied gamely to deny him. I believe the runner up is still improving and I'm hoping the handicapper leaves him alone for this effort so I can get stuck in next time out. Not for the first time in his career Tartan Gigha ran a strange race on turf. He looked a little unwilling at the halfway mark before running on well into 7th. There are races to be won with this horse but I feel he is happier on polytrack.
In the 6.40 Haydock I thought Zuwaar was over priced on the pick of his winter form and he bounced back to form. There may have been something amiss on his last start or perhaps he was feeling the affects of a busy A/W campaign, whatever the reason he benefited from a small break and was back to his best here. Solas Alainn looked slightly unlucky as he had little room inside the last, as I said on the line in the morning, it's a matter of time before this horse wins a staying handicap.
Capucci would've been close than 5th had he not dwelt badly in the stalls. He also refused to settle for the first half of the race, a result of his pilot urging him to make up that lost ground. He did well to put himself in with a chance at the one pole and could be ready to strike soon. It was a decent effort from Boy Blue in 3rd as he pulled ferociously in the first half of the race.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 85
Winners 31
P/L +25.48pts
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 23
Winners 9
P/L +13.22pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 7
Winners 5
P/L +11.01pts
ROI 138%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 55
Winners 17
P/L +1.25ts
ROI 2%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Friday 24th April
Sandown
1.25
Thief Of Time 1pt win - 2nd
4.00
Howard 0.25pt E/W - unpl
Khan Tengri 0.25 E/W - unpl
Perth
2.10
Hazeldene 1.5pts win - WON 11/8 (adv) *2.24 after R4
Level or thereabouts. Thief Of Time was ridden with confidence by Alan Munro in the first at Sandown. He made decent headway from the rear but caught a tartar in Racketeer. I don't think he is the best handicapped horse in the world but he is consistent and will find easier tasks that this. His success will rely on placement.
In the maiden won by debutant Star Ruby, John Dunlop's Hoboob ran better than the result suggests and will improve for the outing and on easier ground.
Despite an ill-judged ride from Ted Durcan, Antinori fared best of those to race off the pace in the 4.20. He has a few placed efforts to his name though so perhaps isn't the most resilient but this was a decent effort.
At Perth, Hazeldene took advantage of a massive drop in class and was a facile winner of the maiden hurdle. Not disgraced in handicaps off a mark of 108 he was entitled to win this and looked over priced at odds against in the morning. Like Gloucester the day before, his SP was more indicative of his chances.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 81
Winners 30
P/L +24.98pts
ROI 26%
All-Weather
Bets 23
Winners 9
P/L +13.22pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 7
Winners 5
P/L +11.01pts
ROI 138%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 51
Winners 16
P/L +0.75ts
ROI 1%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
1.25
Thief Of Time 1pt win - 2nd
4.00
Howard 0.25pt E/W - unpl
Khan Tengri 0.25 E/W - unpl
Perth
2.10
Hazeldene 1.5pts win - WON 11/8 (adv) *2.24 after R4
Level or thereabouts. Thief Of Time was ridden with confidence by Alan Munro in the first at Sandown. He made decent headway from the rear but caught a tartar in Racketeer. I don't think he is the best handicapped horse in the world but he is consistent and will find easier tasks that this. His success will rely on placement.
In the maiden won by debutant Star Ruby, John Dunlop's Hoboob ran better than the result suggests and will improve for the outing and on easier ground.
Despite an ill-judged ride from Ted Durcan, Antinori fared best of those to race off the pace in the 4.20. He has a few placed efforts to his name though so perhaps isn't the most resilient but this was a decent effort.
At Perth, Hazeldene took advantage of a massive drop in class and was a facile winner of the maiden hurdle. Not disgraced in handicaps off a mark of 108 he was entitled to win this and looked over priced at odds against in the morning. Like Gloucester the day before, his SP was more indicative of his chances.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 81
Winners 30
P/L +24.98pts
ROI 26%
All-Weather
Bets 23
Winners 9
P/L +13.22pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 7
Winners 5
P/L +11.01pts
ROI 138%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 51
Winners 16
P/L +0.75ts
ROI 1%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Friday 24 April 2009
Thursday 23rd April
Beverley
3.00
Changing The Guard 1pt win - 2nd
3.30
Cheers For Thea 1pt win - 2nd
Snow Dancer 0.5pt win - 3rd
Uttoxeter
5.30
Gloucester 2pts win - WON 4/5 (adv)
Southwell
6.20
Onemoreandstay 1pt win - WON 5/1 => 4/1
7.20
Top Tribute 0.5pt win - unpl
This Ones For Pat 0.5pt win - unpl
A profit made for the 5th day in succession (+2.1pts). Plenty of recent losers have gone close and/or suffered trouble in running and yesterday was no exception.
At Beverley Changing The Guard was short of room at a pivotal time before finishing 2nd to Tartan Gunna although it's doubtful it altered the result. He pulled clear of the 3rd though and there are more races to me won with him.
I fully expected the 3.30 to be won by either Cheers For Thea or Snow Dancer and that looked to be the case until the final 50 yards of the race. Cheers For Thea travelled well in front with Snow Dancer a clear 2nd but they were both outdone by a rattling finish from Shekan Star. It's possible Cheers For Thea paid for quickening the pace at the halfway mark, a strange decision from David Allan as his mount appeared to be happy with her uncontested lead. That wasn't Allan's biggest mistake though, securing the rail inside the last would've ensured victory, however he switched hands and drifted off the rail allowing the winner a clear passage and threw away victory. Compensation awaits.
Although he rarely finds anything off the bridle, Gloucester looked a clear form pick in the novice hurdle of Uttoxeter. He has mixed it at a decent level all season, there are many pieces of form I could mention what put him stones ahead of his rivals here. The morning prices (4/5, 5/6) were huge and the SP of 2/5 was more indicative of his chances. He won like a horse a class apart, hacking up by 21l. He is useful of his day and there is a better race in him.
Onemoreandstay looked well handicapped on plenty of form and took full advantage of some recent leniency from the handicapper.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 78
Winners 29
P/L +25.12
ROI 27%
All-Weather
Bets 23
Winners 9
P/L +13.22pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 6
Winners 4
P/L +9.15pts
ROI 141%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 49
Winners 16
P/L +2.75ts
ROI 5%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
3.00
Changing The Guard 1pt win - 2nd
3.30
Cheers For Thea 1pt win - 2nd
Snow Dancer 0.5pt win - 3rd
Uttoxeter
5.30
Gloucester 2pts win - WON 4/5 (adv)
Southwell
6.20
Onemoreandstay 1pt win - WON 5/1 => 4/1
7.20
Top Tribute 0.5pt win - unpl
This Ones For Pat 0.5pt win - unpl
A profit made for the 5th day in succession (+2.1pts). Plenty of recent losers have gone close and/or suffered trouble in running and yesterday was no exception.
At Beverley Changing The Guard was short of room at a pivotal time before finishing 2nd to Tartan Gunna although it's doubtful it altered the result. He pulled clear of the 3rd though and there are more races to me won with him.
I fully expected the 3.30 to be won by either Cheers For Thea or Snow Dancer and that looked to be the case until the final 50 yards of the race. Cheers For Thea travelled well in front with Snow Dancer a clear 2nd but they were both outdone by a rattling finish from Shekan Star. It's possible Cheers For Thea paid for quickening the pace at the halfway mark, a strange decision from David Allan as his mount appeared to be happy with her uncontested lead. That wasn't Allan's biggest mistake though, securing the rail inside the last would've ensured victory, however he switched hands and drifted off the rail allowing the winner a clear passage and threw away victory. Compensation awaits.
Although he rarely finds anything off the bridle, Gloucester looked a clear form pick in the novice hurdle of Uttoxeter. He has mixed it at a decent level all season, there are many pieces of form I could mention what put him stones ahead of his rivals here. The morning prices (4/5, 5/6) were huge and the SP of 2/5 was more indicative of his chances. He won like a horse a class apart, hacking up by 21l. He is useful of his day and there is a better race in him.
Onemoreandstay looked well handicapped on plenty of form and took full advantage of some recent leniency from the handicapper.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 78
Winners 29
P/L +25.12
ROI 27%
All-Weather
Bets 23
Winners 9
P/L +13.22pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 6
Winners 4
P/L +9.15pts
ROI 141%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 49
Winners 16
P/L +2.75ts
ROI 5%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Wednesday 22 April 2009
Wednesday 22nd April
Epsom
3.05
Dream Desert 1pt win - 6th
Coin Of The Realm 0.25pt E/W - 4th 33/1 (adv)
4.15
Duncan 0.5pt win - WON 12/1 => 8/1
Sweet Lightning 0.25pt win - 6th
Theocritus 0.25pt win - unpl
5.25
Hector Spectre 0.25pt E/W - unpl
Catterick
3.30
Foreign Investment 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 9/2 => 3/1
Kempton
6.50
Holoko Heights 1pt win - 3rd
A profit shown for the 4th day in succession (+2.56pts). The Epsom spring meeting is not what it once was but it always throws up a decent handicap or two, today was no exception.
I thought the sprint was too competitive and went straight to the 1m4f Great Metropolitan Handicap at 3.05. Mick Channon's Dream Desert was the least exposed runner in the field and has been unlucky to run into some decent animals in handicaps so far in his career. He wasn't disgraced in defeat behind those and as a result looked potentially well treated. Holland made his move soon after Tattenham Corner, which may have been a little soon for this doubtful stayer, he briefly looked the winner but didn't get home. He doesn't fully stay 1m4f and needs to be dropped to 10f in order to show his best. The 2nd part of the bet was E/W on Coin Of The Realm who joined Gary Moore from Ed Dunlop last Autumn. The gelding was fit from a recent spin over hurdles and on the pick of last season's form looked over priced at 33/1. He travelled well throughout before being denied a clear run twice inside the last 2f, the race was over by the time he was in the clear and his pilot wasn't overly hard on him. He was a comfortable 4th and can be considered a little unlucky.
The Blue Riband Trial Stakes was won by John Gosden's Debussy, but it was Popmurphy back in 3rd who caught my eye for the second time in his short career. The well regarded Derby entry was still very green but stayed on well once the penny dropped and finished the race as well as the winner. He is clearly useful and could run relatively well in the Derby.
Next up was another historical handicap, the City and Suburban over 10f, for which twenty went to post. It was an open looking handicap that I was happy to go three handed in. Duncan, making his first start for John Gosden was well positioned throughout by Jimmy Fortune and went on to score impressively. The performance came as no surprise as he always looked a decent horse in maidens last season and was well thought of by his former trainer John Dunlop. He could cope with the step up to pattern company. There were numerous hard luck stories in behind, none more so than Sweet Lightning who was repeatedly denied a clear run, he only saw daylight in the final 100yds or so but still managed to fly into 6th place. With a clear run he would've finished 2nd and possibly given the winner a race. It was also reported that he was struck into.
Hector Spectre was eased before coming off the bridle in the last, Ted Durcan will no doubt report that he didn't act on the course.
At Catterick I thought Foreign Investment was still the right side of the handicapper, the horse she beat on her previous start, Abu Dubai, went on to run well off a higher mark next time out and a 4lb rise for beating that rival looked fair. I thought she was a cast-iron E/W bet at the 5/1 (or thereabouts) that was available all morning - she was heavily backed into 3/1 on course. She travelled like the winner for the most part but was no match for Rising Kheleyf in the final furlong. It's possible she ran into a better treated rival and she is worth another chance off this mark.
Just the one horse interested me at Kempton, Holoko Heights, who finished 3rd in the 6.50. He looked an unlucky loser for the 2nd successive race. The official formline suggests he is an awkward ride however that is a little unfair in my opinion, I believe this defeat was soley down to pilot error. I feel he could've been urged towards the front rank a little earlier, instead of his rider persisting with hold up tactics off a modest pace. He was short of room when asked for his effort and was never in a position to win this race. He looks sure to find a similar event very soon.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 73
Winners 27
P/L +23.02
ROI 26%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 47
Winners 16
P/L +5.25ts
ROI 9%
All-Weather
Bets 21
Winners 8
P/L +10.22pts
ROI 42%
National Hunt
Bets 5
Winners 3
P/L +7.55pts
ROI 168%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
3.05
Dream Desert 1pt win - 6th
Coin Of The Realm 0.25pt E/W - 4th 33/1 (adv)
4.15
Duncan 0.5pt win - WON 12/1 => 8/1
Sweet Lightning 0.25pt win - 6th
Theocritus 0.25pt win - unpl
5.25
Hector Spectre 0.25pt E/W - unpl
Catterick
3.30
Foreign Investment 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 9/2 => 3/1
Kempton
6.50
Holoko Heights 1pt win - 3rd
A profit shown for the 4th day in succession (+2.56pts). The Epsom spring meeting is not what it once was but it always throws up a decent handicap or two, today was no exception.
I thought the sprint was too competitive and went straight to the 1m4f Great Metropolitan Handicap at 3.05. Mick Channon's Dream Desert was the least exposed runner in the field and has been unlucky to run into some decent animals in handicaps so far in his career. He wasn't disgraced in defeat behind those and as a result looked potentially well treated. Holland made his move soon after Tattenham Corner, which may have been a little soon for this doubtful stayer, he briefly looked the winner but didn't get home. He doesn't fully stay 1m4f and needs to be dropped to 10f in order to show his best. The 2nd part of the bet was E/W on Coin Of The Realm who joined Gary Moore from Ed Dunlop last Autumn. The gelding was fit from a recent spin over hurdles and on the pick of last season's form looked over priced at 33/1. He travelled well throughout before being denied a clear run twice inside the last 2f, the race was over by the time he was in the clear and his pilot wasn't overly hard on him. He was a comfortable 4th and can be considered a little unlucky.
The Blue Riband Trial Stakes was won by John Gosden's Debussy, but it was Popmurphy back in 3rd who caught my eye for the second time in his short career. The well regarded Derby entry was still very green but stayed on well once the penny dropped and finished the race as well as the winner. He is clearly useful and could run relatively well in the Derby.
Next up was another historical handicap, the City and Suburban over 10f, for which twenty went to post. It was an open looking handicap that I was happy to go three handed in. Duncan, making his first start for John Gosden was well positioned throughout by Jimmy Fortune and went on to score impressively. The performance came as no surprise as he always looked a decent horse in maidens last season and was well thought of by his former trainer John Dunlop. He could cope with the step up to pattern company. There were numerous hard luck stories in behind, none more so than Sweet Lightning who was repeatedly denied a clear run, he only saw daylight in the final 100yds or so but still managed to fly into 6th place. With a clear run he would've finished 2nd and possibly given the winner a race. It was also reported that he was struck into.
Hector Spectre was eased before coming off the bridle in the last, Ted Durcan will no doubt report that he didn't act on the course.
At Catterick I thought Foreign Investment was still the right side of the handicapper, the horse she beat on her previous start, Abu Dubai, went on to run well off a higher mark next time out and a 4lb rise for beating that rival looked fair. I thought she was a cast-iron E/W bet at the 5/1 (or thereabouts) that was available all morning - she was heavily backed into 3/1 on course. She travelled like the winner for the most part but was no match for Rising Kheleyf in the final furlong. It's possible she ran into a better treated rival and she is worth another chance off this mark.
Just the one horse interested me at Kempton, Holoko Heights, who finished 3rd in the 6.50. He looked an unlucky loser for the 2nd successive race. The official formline suggests he is an awkward ride however that is a little unfair in my opinion, I believe this defeat was soley down to pilot error. I feel he could've been urged towards the front rank a little earlier, instead of his rider persisting with hold up tactics off a modest pace. He was short of room when asked for his effort and was never in a position to win this race. He looks sure to find a similar event very soon.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 73
Winners 27
P/L +23.02
ROI 26%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 47
Winners 16
P/L +5.25ts
ROI 9%
All-Weather
Bets 21
Winners 8
P/L +10.22pts
ROI 42%
National Hunt
Bets 5
Winners 3
P/L +7.55pts
ROI 168%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Tuesday 21st April
Kempton
2.20
Bromhead 1pt win - 4th
3.50
Planetary Motion 1.5pts win - 4th
Hendersyde 1pt win - WON 3/1
Southwell
2.40
If Only 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Folkstone
4.30
Isabelonabicycle 0.5pt win - WON 10/1 => 8/1
Tobago Bay 0.5pt win- 2nd
Dayia 0.5pt win - 3rd
5.35
Hatta Diamond 1pt win - 6th
Another profitable day (+1.5pts). At Kempton Bromhead sweated beforehand and was given no chance in the race due to an over aggressive ride by Ryan Moore. It's extremely difficult to kick 5l clear 6f from home on polytrack and win, he was a sitting duck for his rivals and this run is best ignored.
Hendersyde did well to get up over an inadequate trip and looks set for a good season over 1m6f+. Planetary Motion didn't improve on his flop last time out despite a return to a small field on polytrack - a disappointing effort.
If Only was an agonising loser at Southwell, he was beaten little over 0.5l, finishing 4th. It was a decent effort given he was forced to challenge on the inside for the entire straight and the fact he missed out on the places after a such a run was hard to take.
In the staying handicap at Folkstone (4.50) I was pretty confident of finding the winner with my three horse split stakes bet. The confidence was justified as the selections finished 1-2-3 resulting in a 169/1 T/C. Isabelonabicycle looked certain to improve for the step up to 2m and as she wasn't disgraced over shorter behind the decent Buddhist Monk and El Bravo previously, she looked potentially well treated. Improve she did, knuckling down to her task well to get up by a head, she is capable of more improvement. Tobago Bay had a fine first season over hurdles and looked well treated off a mark of 56 (rated in the 130's over hurdles) on his return to the level. He was only narrowly beaten by the winner here and it's likely he ran into a well treated rival. If the handicapper is fair with his inevitable reassessment then he looks sure to gain compensation. Dayia ran a solid race in 3rd, she wasn't as well treated as the first two home so it was a gallant effort. She can win more races.
Hatta Diamond didn't see out the 10f in the 5.35.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 68
Winners 24
P/L +20.46
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 20
Winners 8
P/L +11.22pts
ROI 48%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 43
Winners 13
P/L +1.69pts
ROI 3%
National Hunt
Bets 5
Winners 3
P/L +7.55pts
ROI 168%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
2.20
Bromhead 1pt win - 4th
3.50
Planetary Motion 1.5pts win - 4th
Hendersyde 1pt win - WON 3/1
Southwell
2.40
If Only 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Folkstone
4.30
Isabelonabicycle 0.5pt win - WON 10/1 => 8/1
Tobago Bay 0.5pt win- 2nd
Dayia 0.5pt win - 3rd
5.35
Hatta Diamond 1pt win - 6th
Another profitable day (+1.5pts). At Kempton Bromhead sweated beforehand and was given no chance in the race due to an over aggressive ride by Ryan Moore. It's extremely difficult to kick 5l clear 6f from home on polytrack and win, he was a sitting duck for his rivals and this run is best ignored.
Hendersyde did well to get up over an inadequate trip and looks set for a good season over 1m6f+. Planetary Motion didn't improve on his flop last time out despite a return to a small field on polytrack - a disappointing effort.
If Only was an agonising loser at Southwell, he was beaten little over 0.5l, finishing 4th. It was a decent effort given he was forced to challenge on the inside for the entire straight and the fact he missed out on the places after a such a run was hard to take.
In the staying handicap at Folkstone (4.50) I was pretty confident of finding the winner with my three horse split stakes bet. The confidence was justified as the selections finished 1-2-3 resulting in a 169/1 T/C. Isabelonabicycle looked certain to improve for the step up to 2m and as she wasn't disgraced over shorter behind the decent Buddhist Monk and El Bravo previously, she looked potentially well treated. Improve she did, knuckling down to her task well to get up by a head, she is capable of more improvement. Tobago Bay had a fine first season over hurdles and looked well treated off a mark of 56 (rated in the 130's over hurdles) on his return to the level. He was only narrowly beaten by the winner here and it's likely he ran into a well treated rival. If the handicapper is fair with his inevitable reassessment then he looks sure to gain compensation. Dayia ran a solid race in 3rd, she wasn't as well treated as the first two home so it was a gallant effort. She can win more races.
Hatta Diamond didn't see out the 10f in the 5.35.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 68
Winners 24
P/L +20.46
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 20
Winners 8
P/L +11.22pts
ROI 48%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 43
Winners 13
P/L +1.69pts
ROI 3%
National Hunt
Bets 5
Winners 3
P/L +7.55pts
ROI 168%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
Tuesday 21 April 2009
Monday 20th April
Pontefract
3.10
Obe Gold 1pt win - 3rd
Thebes 0.5pt win - 2nd
3.40
Daraiym 1.5pts win - 6th
4.40
This Ones For Eddy 1pt win - WON 4/1
Ibbetson 1pt win - 5th
Wolverhampton
3.50
Towy Valley 1pt win - 5th
Kempton
5.00
Dover's Hill 0.5pt E/W - WON 7/1 => 6/1
Windsor
7.50
El Bravo 0.5pt win - 2nd
Dalrymple 0.5pt win - 8th
A profitable day (+1.75pts) despite some poor fortune. Many losers are running well in defeat and although that is a fine sign, it can be frustrating. At Pontefract I persevered with Thebes, although his previous two runs have been below par, I do believe he is a well handicapped horse. This stiff 6f suited him and it was a much improved effort to finish a neck 2nd to Advanced. He was perhaps a little unlucky as he was short of room at a pivotal time.
I thought there was a chance that Daraiym would cope with his rise in the weights and the step up to 2m6f but he could only finish 6th. It was a puzzling effort, he travelled well throughout and was last off the bridle, he found little however and after being left behind at the 2 pole he stayed on again for hands and heels riding. I still think there could be more to come.
I mentioned in previous posts how unlucky and how well in (on the turf) This Ones For Eddy was after his last start. He certainly made his lenient turf rating pay here with an impressive trap to line victory. Ibbetson got himself into the race turning for home and looked the likely 2nd, he weakened fairly quickly though and perhaps needed this.
Diego Rivera was well handicapped on last season's maiden form so no surprise to see him score after market support in the 4.20 at Wolverhampton. He should win more races this season now he has his head in front. Lady Amberlini, back in 4th, would've been closer with a clearer passage and she will be interesting in this grade in the near future.
Cecily, a recent selection, finally come good in handicap company in the last at Wolverhampton. She was well handicapped on her 2yo form but had to be forgiven for some disappointing recent efforts.
Dover's Hill wasn't disgraced behind some decent types in novice and maiden hurdles this season and as a result looked fairly handicapped. Being as I believe this horse is better going right-handed I couldn't ignore him in this Kempton handicap. We won nicely at 6/1 having been available at double those odds during the day.
El Bravo was yet another horse given a lot to do by Ryan Moore, had at least 15l to make up approaching 3f out, although that was too big an ask the horse kept on well to snatch 2nd.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 63
Winners 22
P/L +18.96
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 17
Winners 7
P/L +11.72pts
ROI 62%
National Hunt
Bets 5
Winners 3
P/L +7.55pts
ROI 168%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 41
Winners 12
P/L -0.31pts
ROI -1%
3.10
Obe Gold 1pt win - 3rd
Thebes 0.5pt win - 2nd
3.40
Daraiym 1.5pts win - 6th
4.40
This Ones For Eddy 1pt win - WON 4/1
Ibbetson 1pt win - 5th
Wolverhampton
3.50
Towy Valley 1pt win - 5th
Kempton
5.00
Dover's Hill 0.5pt E/W - WON 7/1 => 6/1
Windsor
7.50
El Bravo 0.5pt win - 2nd
Dalrymple 0.5pt win - 8th
A profitable day (+1.75pts) despite some poor fortune. Many losers are running well in defeat and although that is a fine sign, it can be frustrating. At Pontefract I persevered with Thebes, although his previous two runs have been below par, I do believe he is a well handicapped horse. This stiff 6f suited him and it was a much improved effort to finish a neck 2nd to Advanced. He was perhaps a little unlucky as he was short of room at a pivotal time.
I thought there was a chance that Daraiym would cope with his rise in the weights and the step up to 2m6f but he could only finish 6th. It was a puzzling effort, he travelled well throughout and was last off the bridle, he found little however and after being left behind at the 2 pole he stayed on again for hands and heels riding. I still think there could be more to come.
I mentioned in previous posts how unlucky and how well in (on the turf) This Ones For Eddy was after his last start. He certainly made his lenient turf rating pay here with an impressive trap to line victory. Ibbetson got himself into the race turning for home and looked the likely 2nd, he weakened fairly quickly though and perhaps needed this.
Diego Rivera was well handicapped on last season's maiden form so no surprise to see him score after market support in the 4.20 at Wolverhampton. He should win more races this season now he has his head in front. Lady Amberlini, back in 4th, would've been closer with a clearer passage and she will be interesting in this grade in the near future.
Cecily, a recent selection, finally come good in handicap company in the last at Wolverhampton. She was well handicapped on her 2yo form but had to be forgiven for some disappointing recent efforts.
Dover's Hill wasn't disgraced behind some decent types in novice and maiden hurdles this season and as a result looked fairly handicapped. Being as I believe this horse is better going right-handed I couldn't ignore him in this Kempton handicap. We won nicely at 6/1 having been available at double those odds during the day.
El Bravo was yet another horse given a lot to do by Ryan Moore, had at least 15l to make up approaching 3f out, although that was too big an ask the horse kept on well to snatch 2nd.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 63
Winners 22
P/L +18.96
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 17
Winners 7
P/L +11.72pts
ROI 62%
National Hunt
Bets 5
Winners 3
P/L +7.55pts
ROI 168%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 41
Winners 12
P/L -0.31pts
ROI -1%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
Sunday 19 April 2009
Sunday 19th April
Lingfield
2.10 Calzaghe 0.5pt E/W - WON 12/1 => 8/1
4.40 Sevenna 1pt win - 5th
Stratford
5.00 Indian Blood 1pt win - 5th
A decent priced winner is just what the doctor ordered and Calzghe floored his opponents (sorry!) in the first at Lingfield. The chestnut gelding won in better company off a 10lb higher mark 12 months ago, and as he shaped as if he was coming to hand last time out, he couldn't be ignored in weak looking Class 6 handicap. At the turn for home it looked as if Richard Thomas had given his mount far too much to do but he picked up well late and won going away.
Sevenna was weak in the market for her seasonal debut but travelled well and looked the likely winner when Tom Queally took up proceedings on her at the 2f marker. She didn't kick on as expected but still looked set for the frame (traded 1/16 in-running for a place), until tiring late on and losing two places inside the last 100yds. I believe she will come on for this and I expect her to go very close on her next outing.
Over at Stratford I thought Indian Blood had a decent chance to gain compensation for his last start when he crashed out at the last with the race at his mercy. He put in a puzzling display today, travelled well off the pace before Timmy Murphy rushed him up to challenge. He made ground up very quickly but just as he started to look threatening came under pressure and found little. Despite looking very dangerous after the third last he finished a tired 5th. With regards to timing and tactics I do not think that Timmy Murphy is riding well at present, and Indian Blood's weak finish may have been a result of doing too much, too quickly, in the middle part of the race.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
All-Weather
Bets 16
Winners 7
P/L +12.72pts
ROI 71%
National Hunt
Bets 4
Winners 2
P/L +3.8pts
ROI 109%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 37
Winners 11
P/L +0.69pts
ROI 2%
Combined
Bets 57
Winners 20
P/L +17.21
ROI 25%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
2.10 Calzaghe 0.5pt E/W - WON 12/1 => 8/1
4.40 Sevenna 1pt win - 5th
Stratford
5.00 Indian Blood 1pt win - 5th
A decent priced winner is just what the doctor ordered and Calzghe floored his opponents (sorry!) in the first at Lingfield. The chestnut gelding won in better company off a 10lb higher mark 12 months ago, and as he shaped as if he was coming to hand last time out, he couldn't be ignored in weak looking Class 6 handicap. At the turn for home it looked as if Richard Thomas had given his mount far too much to do but he picked up well late and won going away.
Sevenna was weak in the market for her seasonal debut but travelled well and looked the likely winner when Tom Queally took up proceedings on her at the 2f marker. She didn't kick on as expected but still looked set for the frame (traded 1/16 in-running for a place), until tiring late on and losing two places inside the last 100yds. I believe she will come on for this and I expect her to go very close on her next outing.
Over at Stratford I thought Indian Blood had a decent chance to gain compensation for his last start when he crashed out at the last with the race at his mercy. He put in a puzzling display today, travelled well off the pace before Timmy Murphy rushed him up to challenge. He made ground up very quickly but just as he started to look threatening came under pressure and found little. Despite looking very dangerous after the third last he finished a tired 5th. With regards to timing and tactics I do not think that Timmy Murphy is riding well at present, and Indian Blood's weak finish may have been a result of doing too much, too quickly, in the middle part of the race.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
All-Weather
Bets 16
Winners 7
P/L +12.72pts
ROI 71%
National Hunt
Bets 4
Winners 2
P/L +3.8pts
ROI 109%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 37
Winners 11
P/L +0.69pts
ROI 2%
Combined
Bets 57
Winners 20
P/L +17.21
ROI 25%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
Saturday 18 April 2009
Friday 17th April & Saturday 18th April
Newbury
2.10
Cloudy Start 0.5pt E/W - unpl.
2.40
Cheveton 0.5pt win - 5th
Oldjoesaid 0.5pt win - 6th
Kempton
7.10
Madam President 0.5pt win - WON 6/1 (5/1 adv)
Watson's Bay 0.25pt win - unpl.
Waldorf 0.25pt win - unpl.
8.50
Al Gillani 1pt win - unpl.
Espy 0.25pt E/W - unpl.
A slight loss on what was a difficult days racing. No strong sole bets, it was a case of spreading money in search of value in an attempt to secure a profit. Madam President won in the style of a well handicapped horse and could win more races this year. Little else entered the notebook although Cheveton and Fullandby did well from low draws in the sprint.
Newbury
2.35
Charm School 1pt win - 7th (8/1)
Fanjura 0.5pt win - 5th (25/1)
Mawatheeq 0.5pt win - unpl. (16/1)
5.20
Liberally 0.5pt win - 6th (11/1)
Kidlat 0.5pt win - 7th (20/1)
Thirsk
2.30
Flawed Genuis 0.5pt E/W - 6th
3.00
Herrera 1pt win - unpl.
Solas Alain 0.5pt win - 3rd (14/1)
Ayr
3.25
L'Aventure 0.25 E/W - 6th 33/1 (adv)
A difficult day, again no strong selections, I opted for some big priced selections (average price 14/1) who I believed represented real value. Many ran decent races without winning. In the Spring Cup at Newbury Fanjura ran a fine race and is definitely capable of winning a nice race. Charm School broke slowest of all losing a few lengths, so in fairness probably ran well to finish a 4.5l 7th. I got the impression he is still coming to hand this year so remains in the notebook - may come into his own over 10f however. Mawatheeq ran better than the result suggests, and although hard to place, will do better on quicker ground. Swingkeel ran well on his reappearance in the 4.50 and will be interesting over staying handicaps in the near future. Liberally will come on a bundle for her 6th in the 5.20, and Kidlat (a place behind) will find easier tasks to get off the mark.
Not many got into the 2.30 at Thirsk and although he isn't totally straightforward Flawed Genius was never put in the race. They were strung out at halfway due to a frantic pace and the horse did not receive the cover a horse of his type needs. Solas Alainn ran a race full of promise in the 3.00, keeping on well for 3rd after coming under pressure when entering the straight. He still looked green and should find a handicap soon over 1m4f or further.
Was certain L'Aventure would run a race in the Scottish National and I think I was a little unlucky in the 33/1 E/W bet. People will say she ran her usual race, staying on after getting outpaced, but I'm not so sure. These days, due to a change in tactics, she is racing more prominently and she was going well in touch until a horrendous blunder at the 19th. She lost lengths and her place after that but stayed on well for 6th place. I'm certain she would've had a say in the finish but for that error.
In the evening card at Nottingham, Garter Knight ran a race full of promise in the 6.35. Showed a decent turn of pace to take up proceedings around the two pole but perhaps got there too soon and faded into 4th late on (would've been 3rd but for interference). The way he quickened to the front suggests he is a horse better than his rating suggests and will gain compensation soon I would imagine.
A difficult week, a host of unlucky losers, but pleased to still be in the black during the most difficult time of the flat season. Plenty of losing selections ran well this week and I'm sure the winners will flow again in the next day or so.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 54
Winners 19
P/L +14.21
ROI 22%
All-Weather
Bets 14
Winners 6
P/L +8.72pts
ROI 55%
National Hunt
Bets 3
Winners 2
P/L +4.8pts
ROI 192%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 37
Winners 11
P/L +0.69pts
ROI 2%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
2.10
Cloudy Start 0.5pt E/W - unpl.
2.40
Cheveton 0.5pt win - 5th
Oldjoesaid 0.5pt win - 6th
Kempton
7.10
Madam President 0.5pt win - WON 6/1 (5/1 adv)
Watson's Bay 0.25pt win - unpl.
Waldorf 0.25pt win - unpl.
8.50
Al Gillani 1pt win - unpl.
Espy 0.25pt E/W - unpl.
A slight loss on what was a difficult days racing. No strong sole bets, it was a case of spreading money in search of value in an attempt to secure a profit. Madam President won in the style of a well handicapped horse and could win more races this year. Little else entered the notebook although Cheveton and Fullandby did well from low draws in the sprint.
Newbury
2.35
Charm School 1pt win - 7th (8/1)
Fanjura 0.5pt win - 5th (25/1)
Mawatheeq 0.5pt win - unpl. (16/1)
5.20
Liberally 0.5pt win - 6th (11/1)
Kidlat 0.5pt win - 7th (20/1)
Thirsk
2.30
Flawed Genuis 0.5pt E/W - 6th
3.00
Herrera 1pt win - unpl.
Solas Alain 0.5pt win - 3rd (14/1)
Ayr
3.25
L'Aventure 0.25 E/W - 6th 33/1 (adv)
A difficult day, again no strong selections, I opted for some big priced selections (average price 14/1) who I believed represented real value. Many ran decent races without winning. In the Spring Cup at Newbury Fanjura ran a fine race and is definitely capable of winning a nice race. Charm School broke slowest of all losing a few lengths, so in fairness probably ran well to finish a 4.5l 7th. I got the impression he is still coming to hand this year so remains in the notebook - may come into his own over 10f however. Mawatheeq ran better than the result suggests, and although hard to place, will do better on quicker ground. Swingkeel ran well on his reappearance in the 4.50 and will be interesting over staying handicaps in the near future. Liberally will come on a bundle for her 6th in the 5.20, and Kidlat (a place behind) will find easier tasks to get off the mark.
Not many got into the 2.30 at Thirsk and although he isn't totally straightforward Flawed Genius was never put in the race. They were strung out at halfway due to a frantic pace and the horse did not receive the cover a horse of his type needs. Solas Alainn ran a race full of promise in the 3.00, keeping on well for 3rd after coming under pressure when entering the straight. He still looked green and should find a handicap soon over 1m4f or further.
Was certain L'Aventure would run a race in the Scottish National and I think I was a little unlucky in the 33/1 E/W bet. People will say she ran her usual race, staying on after getting outpaced, but I'm not so sure. These days, due to a change in tactics, she is racing more prominently and she was going well in touch until a horrendous blunder at the 19th. She lost lengths and her place after that but stayed on well for 6th place. I'm certain she would've had a say in the finish but for that error.
In the evening card at Nottingham, Garter Knight ran a race full of promise in the 6.35. Showed a decent turn of pace to take up proceedings around the two pole but perhaps got there too soon and faded into 4th late on (would've been 3rd but for interference). The way he quickened to the front suggests he is a horse better than his rating suggests and will gain compensation soon I would imagine.
A difficult week, a host of unlucky losers, but pleased to still be in the black during the most difficult time of the flat season. Plenty of losing selections ran well this week and I'm sure the winners will flow again in the next day or so.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 54
Winners 19
P/L +14.21
ROI 22%
All-Weather
Bets 14
Winners 6
P/L +8.72pts
ROI 55%
National Hunt
Bets 3
Winners 2
P/L +4.8pts
ROI 192%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 37
Winners 11
P/L +0.69pts
ROI 2%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
Thursday 16 April 2009
Thursday 16th April
Newmarket
4.45 Balaagha 1.5pts win - 2nd, btn nse
5.20 Imposing 1pt win - 2nd, btn sh
Ripon
4.55 Leonid Glow 0.25pt E/W - unpl.
Wolverhampton
5.45 Shark Man 1.5pts win - WON 2/1 (adv) *15p R4
7.45 Never Ending Tale 0.5pt win - 2nd
A slight loss (less than a point) on the day, but that doesn't even tell half the story. I'll start with Newmarket where I was most unlucky.
Delegator was impressive in the Craven and must go close in the Guineas providing this hasn't taken the edge off him. My first bet came in the 4.45 where I expected Balaagha to improve greatly on her debut 5th of last season. She played up in the preliminaries and went to post very keenly. It was much the same during the early stages of the race as Richard Hills was unable to settle her. Despite this she cut through the field with relative ease and threw it down to the Ryan Moore ridden Resort. It looked as if she get the better of her rival in the finish but Richard Hills chose to hit her with the stick just once and she went down by the narrowest of margins. With so much going wrong for her, to get within millimetres of winning was as fine performance and maiden success looks a mere formality. She is a potentially pattern class.
The following race was the 10f 3y0 handicap that last year saw Bronze Cannon and Doctor Fremantle fight out a close finish. Michael Stoute targets this race well, over the past four years we have seen him run Doctor Fremantle (btn nk), Regal Flush (btn nk), Papal Bull (won), and Zalongo (btn hd). This year he was represented by Imposing, who looked sure to appreciate the step up 1m2f. He took my eye last season in that 7f sales race won by Donativum, he was tailed off at the mid point but when he hit the rising ground he flew, cutting threw half the field as if they were standing still. Imposing also holds a Derby entry and the fact that Doctor Fremantle, Regal Flush, Papal Bull, and Balakheri (won this 2002) all went on to contest a classic after faring well in this race, bode well for his chances.
Ryan Moore travelled well on Imposing before making what looked like a race winning challenge to take it up inside the last. He was undone however by Perpetually who, despite looking beat when passed by Imposing, got his head down at the line to record a short-head victory. The handicapper will probably have his say with Imposing but he still remains of great interest. Not the start I was looking for at HQ in 2009 but wrong with regards to judgement so can claim a moral victory. Much prefer immoral financial victories though.
The horse to take away from Ripon was the Willie Haggas trained Mutamaashi, who despite beaten at a short price, ran a race full of promise on handicap debut. He will not have to wait long to gain compensation.
There was justice at Wolverhampton thankfully, although he was joint strongest with regards to stake, I made Shark Man the NAP of the day for text service purposes and he became by 7th winning NAP in the past 9 racing days. He looked a good thing based on his Brocklesby 5th and 2nd to Soccer previously and despite looking like he'd improve for 6f he won comfortably enough come the finish. I advised taking the 2/1 and even with the rule4 it beat the SP (10/11) massively.
The following race saw Mark Johnston's Stagecoach Jade make it two from two winning by 3/4l on her handicap debut. The 2nd, Abu Dubai, was an alarming drifter all day (16 => 140 on the exchanges) but ran another solid race on polytrack and looks sure to find a similar event.
Never Ending Tale, now trained by Ed Vaughan, looks to have started the season on a fair mark and was well backed for his seasonal debut. He looked the winner on the turn for home, but doesn't find a great deal off the bridle. He will benefit from a more waiting ride and will get his head in front if he stays this well handicapped.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
All-Weather
Bets 12
Winners 5
P/L +8.22pts
ROI 61%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 31
Winners 11
P/L +8.19pts
ROI 21%
National Hunt
Bets 2
Winners 2
P/L +5.3pts
ROI 265%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
4.45 Balaagha 1.5pts win - 2nd, btn nse
5.20 Imposing 1pt win - 2nd, btn sh
Ripon
4.55 Leonid Glow 0.25pt E/W - unpl.
Wolverhampton
5.45 Shark Man 1.5pts win - WON 2/1 (adv) *15p R4
7.45 Never Ending Tale 0.5pt win - 2nd
A slight loss (less than a point) on the day, but that doesn't even tell half the story. I'll start with Newmarket where I was most unlucky.
Delegator was impressive in the Craven and must go close in the Guineas providing this hasn't taken the edge off him. My first bet came in the 4.45 where I expected Balaagha to improve greatly on her debut 5th of last season. She played up in the preliminaries and went to post very keenly. It was much the same during the early stages of the race as Richard Hills was unable to settle her. Despite this she cut through the field with relative ease and threw it down to the Ryan Moore ridden Resort. It looked as if she get the better of her rival in the finish but Richard Hills chose to hit her with the stick just once and she went down by the narrowest of margins. With so much going wrong for her, to get within millimetres of winning was as fine performance and maiden success looks a mere formality. She is a potentially pattern class.
The following race was the 10f 3y0 handicap that last year saw Bronze Cannon and Doctor Fremantle fight out a close finish. Michael Stoute targets this race well, over the past four years we have seen him run Doctor Fremantle (btn nk), Regal Flush (btn nk), Papal Bull (won), and Zalongo (btn hd). This year he was represented by Imposing, who looked sure to appreciate the step up 1m2f. He took my eye last season in that 7f sales race won by Donativum, he was tailed off at the mid point but when he hit the rising ground he flew, cutting threw half the field as if they were standing still. Imposing also holds a Derby entry and the fact that Doctor Fremantle, Regal Flush, Papal Bull, and Balakheri (won this 2002) all went on to contest a classic after faring well in this race, bode well for his chances.
Ryan Moore travelled well on Imposing before making what looked like a race winning challenge to take it up inside the last. He was undone however by Perpetually who, despite looking beat when passed by Imposing, got his head down at the line to record a short-head victory. The handicapper will probably have his say with Imposing but he still remains of great interest. Not the start I was looking for at HQ in 2009 but wrong with regards to judgement so can claim a moral victory. Much prefer immoral financial victories though.
The horse to take away from Ripon was the Willie Haggas trained Mutamaashi, who despite beaten at a short price, ran a race full of promise on handicap debut. He will not have to wait long to gain compensation.
There was justice at Wolverhampton thankfully, although he was joint strongest with regards to stake, I made Shark Man the NAP of the day for text service purposes and he became by 7th winning NAP in the past 9 racing days. He looked a good thing based on his Brocklesby 5th and 2nd to Soccer previously and despite looking like he'd improve for 6f he won comfortably enough come the finish. I advised taking the 2/1 and even with the rule4 it beat the SP (10/11) massively.
The following race saw Mark Johnston's Stagecoach Jade make it two from two winning by 3/4l on her handicap debut. The 2nd, Abu Dubai, was an alarming drifter all day (16 => 140 on the exchanges) but ran another solid race on polytrack and looks sure to find a similar event.
Never Ending Tale, now trained by Ed Vaughan, looks to have started the season on a fair mark and was well backed for his seasonal debut. He looked the winner on the turn for home, but doesn't find a great deal off the bridle. He will benefit from a more waiting ride and will get his head in front if he stays this well handicapped.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
All-Weather
Bets 12
Winners 5
P/L +8.22pts
ROI 61%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 31
Winners 11
P/L +8.19pts
ROI 21%
National Hunt
Bets 2
Winners 2
P/L +5.3pts
ROI 265%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
Wednesday 15 April 2009
Wednesday 15th April
Beverley
1.30
Jack My Boy 1.5pts win - WON 6/4
Kempton
7.20
Set The Trend 2pts win - WON 5/2 (adv)
Keep Ringing 0.5pt win - 4th
7.50
Gold Again 0.5pt E/W - 6th
8.50
Murcar 0.5pt win - unpl
Starburst 0.5pt win - unpl
9.20
Taqdeyr 1pt win - WON Evs (adv)
A decent day, all the biggest bets won securing a profit of 5.75pts on the day.
I thought Newmarket was a card to watch rather than invest in. Fantasia was mightily impressive in the Nell Gwyn and it will be a fascinating duel when if takes on Rainbow View again. I've a feeling Fantasia has improved greatly over the winter and given she is bred to improve over further she is a top class prospect.
Monitor Closely and Moneycantbuymelove were unlucky behind Nehaam in the Timeform sales race. The former was far too keen early and wasn't helped by the winner hanging inside the last, he was an unlucky loser. Moneycantbuymelove was denied a clear run and given too much to do by Jamie Spencer - got a feeling that won't be the last time I write those words this season.
Just one horse interested me at Beverley and that was Jack My Boy in the first - my first 2yo bet of the season. Pleasantly surprised to see odds against for this one and there was hardly a moments danger as he made all to win by over 2l. I wrote last week regarding the benefit of experience in early 2yo races and this race proved no exception, the 1-2 and 4 of the first 6 home having already seen a racecourse.
Later on the card it was no surprise to see Sirvino score after attracting market support. He can pay his way in handicaps this term.
Kempton was the most interesting card of the day for me, with regards to betting opportunities obviously. I was excited about the reappearance of Set The Trend, I gave Andrew Balding's colt a glowing reference in the "Flat (turf) 2009 Story So Far..." post last week. I fully expected him to score off this mark of 80 and he was a confident selection. There was a lot of nonsense spoken in the media after the race, suggesting the 2nd, Anitinori, was an unlucky loser. Watlter Swinburn's runner up was short of room approaching the furlong marker but Set The Trend kept pulling out more when asked and he was only pushed out by Liam Keniry at the line. As stated last week, I expect Set The Trend to have a decent season, definitely a horse to follow.
Gold Again, also trained by Walter Swinburn, made her handicap debut in the following race and she ran a fair race from the dreaded one box. After tacking over to the rail she was denied a clear run but kept on despite not being knocked about. She looks potentially well treated and her time will come soon.
It looked like the handicapper had taken a massive chance giving Taqdeyr a mark of 85 and he sluiced up in the last. He looked a grade (at least) above his rivals and he won't be seeing him in Class 4 handicaps again.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 28
Winners 11
P/L +11.19pts
ROI 32%
All-Weather
Bets 10
Winners 4
P/L +6.17pts
ROI 54%
National Hunt
Bets 2
Winners 2
P/L +5.3pts
ROI 265%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
1.30
Jack My Boy 1.5pts win - WON 6/4
Kempton
7.20
Set The Trend 2pts win - WON 5/2 (adv)
Keep Ringing 0.5pt win - 4th
7.50
Gold Again 0.5pt E/W - 6th
8.50
Murcar 0.5pt win - unpl
Starburst 0.5pt win - unpl
9.20
Taqdeyr 1pt win - WON Evs (adv)
A decent day, all the biggest bets won securing a profit of 5.75pts on the day.
I thought Newmarket was a card to watch rather than invest in. Fantasia was mightily impressive in the Nell Gwyn and it will be a fascinating duel when if takes on Rainbow View again. I've a feeling Fantasia has improved greatly over the winter and given she is bred to improve over further she is a top class prospect.
Monitor Closely and Moneycantbuymelove were unlucky behind Nehaam in the Timeform sales race. The former was far too keen early and wasn't helped by the winner hanging inside the last, he was an unlucky loser. Moneycantbuymelove was denied a clear run and given too much to do by Jamie Spencer - got a feeling that won't be the last time I write those words this season.
Just one horse interested me at Beverley and that was Jack My Boy in the first - my first 2yo bet of the season. Pleasantly surprised to see odds against for this one and there was hardly a moments danger as he made all to win by over 2l. I wrote last week regarding the benefit of experience in early 2yo races and this race proved no exception, the 1-2 and 4 of the first 6 home having already seen a racecourse.
Later on the card it was no surprise to see Sirvino score after attracting market support. He can pay his way in handicaps this term.
Kempton was the most interesting card of the day for me, with regards to betting opportunities obviously. I was excited about the reappearance of Set The Trend, I gave Andrew Balding's colt a glowing reference in the "Flat (turf) 2009 Story So Far..." post last week. I fully expected him to score off this mark of 80 and he was a confident selection. There was a lot of nonsense spoken in the media after the race, suggesting the 2nd, Anitinori, was an unlucky loser. Watlter Swinburn's runner up was short of room approaching the furlong marker but Set The Trend kept pulling out more when asked and he was only pushed out by Liam Keniry at the line. As stated last week, I expect Set The Trend to have a decent season, definitely a horse to follow.
Gold Again, also trained by Walter Swinburn, made her handicap debut in the following race and she ran a fair race from the dreaded one box. After tacking over to the rail she was denied a clear run but kept on despite not being knocked about. She looks potentially well treated and her time will come soon.
It looked like the handicapper had taken a massive chance giving Taqdeyr a mark of 85 and he sluiced up in the last. He looked a grade (at least) above his rivals and he won't be seeing him in Class 4 handicaps again.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 28
Winners 11
P/L +11.19pts
ROI 32%
All-Weather
Bets 10
Winners 4
P/L +6.17pts
ROI 54%
National Hunt
Bets 2
Winners 2
P/L +5.3pts
ROI 265%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
Need to be Brave to Back a Craven Fave
The Craven hasn't been a great race for punters, despite many horses lining up with huge reputations. The majority have simply underperformed on the day. Over the past 21 runnings, despite 15 favs starting at 2/1 or shorter, just five have succeeded.
Many bubbles have been burst in this...
1988 Warning 4/7 - lost
1990 Mukddaam 6/4 - lost
1991 Desert Sun 6/5 - lost
1992 Forest Tiger 11/4 - lost
1993 Barathea 10/11 - lost
1994 Green Green Desert 11/4 - lost
1995 Nwaamis 8/11 - lost
1996 Alhaarth 1/2 - lost
1999 Mujahid 2/5 - lost
2000 Rossini 7/4 - lost
2001 Nayef 4/6 - lost
2003 Joint-favs 6/5 (coupled) - lost
2004 Three Valleys 2/1 - lost
2005 Etlaala 2/1 - lost
2006 City Of Troy 8/11 - lost
2008 Raven's Pass 11/8 - lost
Just one odds-on shot (from 8) has won, Xaar (by a head) at 8/11 in 1997.
I'm never a fan of 'fate of favourite' statistics, I don't believe they are logical, however I believe with the Craven there is logic behind the stat. Being classic types the horses involved obviously have future dates in mind and no trainer wants to lose the 2000 Guineas in mid-April. They won't be over done at home, connections will not want them to peak in this, they want something left in the tank for the big day(s) ahead. Raven's Pass (2008), King's Best, (2000), Nayef (2001), Dr Devious (1992) improved drastically on what they showed in the Craven, all went on to Group 1 success after defeats in this race.
I'm actually fan of this year's favourite, Delegator, but couldn't entertain the idea of backing him today at odds-on, in what could also turn out to be a muddling affair. In a race where a defeat would mean little to a horses long term possibilities, is this the best opportunity to back this particular horse? Or the best opportunity to back any horse at a short price?
I'm not sure it is.
Be lucky.
Many bubbles have been burst in this...
1988 Warning 4/7 - lost
1990 Mukddaam 6/4 - lost
1991 Desert Sun 6/5 - lost
1992 Forest Tiger 11/4 - lost
1993 Barathea 10/11 - lost
1994 Green Green Desert 11/4 - lost
1995 Nwaamis 8/11 - lost
1996 Alhaarth 1/2 - lost
1999 Mujahid 2/5 - lost
2000 Rossini 7/4 - lost
2001 Nayef 4/6 - lost
2003 Joint-favs 6/5 (coupled) - lost
2004 Three Valleys 2/1 - lost
2005 Etlaala 2/1 - lost
2006 City Of Troy 8/11 - lost
2008 Raven's Pass 11/8 - lost
Just one odds-on shot (from 8) has won, Xaar (by a head) at 8/11 in 1997.
I'm never a fan of 'fate of favourite' statistics, I don't believe they are logical, however I believe with the Craven there is logic behind the stat. Being classic types the horses involved obviously have future dates in mind and no trainer wants to lose the 2000 Guineas in mid-April. They won't be over done at home, connections will not want them to peak in this, they want something left in the tank for the big day(s) ahead. Raven's Pass (2008), King's Best, (2000), Nayef (2001), Dr Devious (1992) improved drastically on what they showed in the Craven, all went on to Group 1 success after defeats in this race.
I'm actually fan of this year's favourite, Delegator, but couldn't entertain the idea of backing him today at odds-on, in what could also turn out to be a muddling affair. In a race where a defeat would mean little to a horses long term possibilities, is this the best opportunity to back this particular horse? Or the best opportunity to back any horse at a short price?
I'm not sure it is.
Be lucky.
Tuesday 14 April 2009
Tuesday 14th April
Yarmouth
3.50
Aakef 1pt win - WON 11/8
Bouvardia 1pt win - 2nd 4/1 (adv) => 85/40
4.20
Lucky Dancer 0.25pt E/W - 5th
4.50
Buddhist Monk 0.75pt E/W - 3rd 9/2 (adv)
The whole day revolved around the 3.50 for me, I made it a definite match between Aakef and Bouvardia and would've been amazed had the race not gone to one of the well handicapped pair.
Aakef was well regarded by the yard last year, was sent of as low as 7/1 for the Windsor Castle stakes at Royal Ascot despite losing on debut, however I thought he looked a little soft in a finish. That said, he looked potentially well treated (OR 81) and there was every reason to believe the horse's mind would be more on the job this term as he has since been gelded. Connections quoted last year that he can be handful at home, and it could be key to the horses' success this season. I'm certain a decision to 'cut' a horse that is highly regarded wasn't one made lightly and I'm sure connections are convinced he'll improve for it.
Everyone's favourite trainer, Henry Cecil, has started the season well and his Bouvardia looked equally well treated. She beat a big field here last season after two 2nds including one against the decent Snoqualmie Girl - form that made her OR of 83 look very lenient. Again I was prepared to forgive a poor handicap debut of last season as I feel the ground was too soft for her on that final 2yo start.
I decided to split my stakes evenly on the pair and I really did think that Bouvardia was tremendous value at 4/1 this morning. She was backed down to 85/40 on course but Aakef got first run on her and despite a lightning-fast finish she could not peg back the winner. As expected they filled the 1-2 spots but we got the consolation prize you could say. Both look set for a decent season though.
I felt Lucky Dancer could improve and what he has already shown given he was stepped up to 2m for the first time. David Elsworth does so well with staying handicappers and they fact he has persevered with this lowly rated gelded should not be ignored. He did indeed put up an improved display, taking it up over 2f from home but didn't quite get home, fading into 5th. I think perhaps Alan Munro took it up a little early, and/or he may be worth a try at 1m6f. I'm sure there is a race for him.
I spoke in greater detail on the "Story So Far" post regarding Buddhist Monk's seasonal debut at Doncaster. Although he appears to be well handicapped and possess plenty of ability he is far from straightforward, but given his running style and the 8 runners going to post, he looked a cast-iron E/W bet in the last today. Although visibility wasn't great due to the fog, he looked the likely winner around 2f out, but was a beaten 3rd when they came back into view after drifting to the far rail. He does need everything to drop right, possible over further, but there are races to be won with him and I will continue to monitor his entries.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 27
Winners 10
P/L +8.94
ROI 26%
National Hunt
Bets 2
Winners 2
P/L +5.3pts
ROI 265%
All-Weather
Bets 6
Winners 2
P/L +2.67pts
ROI 44%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
3.50
Aakef 1pt win - WON 11/8
Bouvardia 1pt win - 2nd 4/1 (adv) => 85/40
4.20
Lucky Dancer 0.25pt E/W - 5th
4.50
Buddhist Monk 0.75pt E/W - 3rd 9/2 (adv)
The whole day revolved around the 3.50 for me, I made it a definite match between Aakef and Bouvardia and would've been amazed had the race not gone to one of the well handicapped pair.
Aakef was well regarded by the yard last year, was sent of as low as 7/1 for the Windsor Castle stakes at Royal Ascot despite losing on debut, however I thought he looked a little soft in a finish. That said, he looked potentially well treated (OR 81) and there was every reason to believe the horse's mind would be more on the job this term as he has since been gelded. Connections quoted last year that he can be handful at home, and it could be key to the horses' success this season. I'm certain a decision to 'cut' a horse that is highly regarded wasn't one made lightly and I'm sure connections are convinced he'll improve for it.
Everyone's favourite trainer, Henry Cecil, has started the season well and his Bouvardia looked equally well treated. She beat a big field here last season after two 2nds including one against the decent Snoqualmie Girl - form that made her OR of 83 look very lenient. Again I was prepared to forgive a poor handicap debut of last season as I feel the ground was too soft for her on that final 2yo start.
I decided to split my stakes evenly on the pair and I really did think that Bouvardia was tremendous value at 4/1 this morning. She was backed down to 85/40 on course but Aakef got first run on her and despite a lightning-fast finish she could not peg back the winner. As expected they filled the 1-2 spots but we got the consolation prize you could say. Both look set for a decent season though.
I felt Lucky Dancer could improve and what he has already shown given he was stepped up to 2m for the first time. David Elsworth does so well with staying handicappers and they fact he has persevered with this lowly rated gelded should not be ignored. He did indeed put up an improved display, taking it up over 2f from home but didn't quite get home, fading into 5th. I think perhaps Alan Munro took it up a little early, and/or he may be worth a try at 1m6f. I'm sure there is a race for him.
I spoke in greater detail on the "Story So Far" post regarding Buddhist Monk's seasonal debut at Doncaster. Although he appears to be well handicapped and possess plenty of ability he is far from straightforward, but given his running style and the 8 runners going to post, he looked a cast-iron E/W bet in the last today. Although visibility wasn't great due to the fog, he looked the likely winner around 2f out, but was a beaten 3rd when they came back into view after drifting to the far rail. He does need everything to drop right, possible over further, but there are races to be won with him and I will continue to monitor his entries.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 27
Winners 10
P/L +8.94
ROI 26%
National Hunt
Bets 2
Winners 2
P/L +5.3pts
ROI 265%
All-Weather
Bets 6
Winners 2
P/L +2.67pts
ROI 44%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
Monday 13 April 2009
Monday 13th April
Warwick
2.20
Baby Rock 0.5pt E/W - unpl
Redcar
2.35
Miss Keck 0.5pt win - 5th
Amir Pasha 0.25pt E/W - unpl
3.45
Kipchak 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Top Tribute 0.25pt win - 7th
Shadowtime 0.25pt win - unpl
Yarmouth
2.50
Desert Kiss 0.5pt win - 4th
4.00
Style Icon 0.5pt win - 6th
Zeffirelli 0.5pt win - 5th
Truly Devine 0.5pt win - unpl
5.45
Annabelle's Charm 1pt win - 3rd
2.20
Baby Rock 0.5pt E/W - unpl
Redcar
2.35
Miss Keck 0.5pt win - 5th
Amir Pasha 0.25pt E/W - unpl
3.45
Kipchak 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Top Tribute 0.25pt win - 7th
Shadowtime 0.25pt win - unpl
Yarmouth
2.50
Desert Kiss 0.5pt win - 4th
4.00
Style Icon 0.5pt win - 6th
Zeffirelli 0.5pt win - 5th
Truly Devine 0.5pt win - unpl
5.45
Annabelle's Charm 1pt win - 3rd
A typical Bank Holiday minefield for punters; horses showing massively improved form to land gambles, strange betting patterns throughout the day and numerous poor rides - I'd be writing for a week if I went into the details of every tenderly handed horse I saw today. Under the circumstances I pleased to come out the day relatively unscathed (-1pt).
At Warwick, Baby Rock's run in the 2.20 can be totally ignored, he suffered an unclear passage throughout and wasn't knocked about.
Miss Keck looked an unlucky loser in the 2.35 at Redcar, she was short of room at a pivotal time and the race was over by the time she got into the clear. She finished well to finish 5th and looks sure to find a staying handicap soon. Kipchak had a decent A/W season and ran well for new connections on his last start, when carrying a penalty over an inadequate 6f. He looked sure to go well today, back over 7f and back running off his OR of 67 - for these reasons he was my joint-strongest bet of the day. The victory never looked in doubt and he won well from the front. Top Tribute wasn't given a hard time back in 7th and should find a race before long.
Yarmouth is probably my least favourite track, I feel it's extremely difficult to find winners there and today proved no exception. Negotiation took the first for John Gosden, he looks sure to progress and should follow up in handicap company. The market told the story in the 4.00, there was money for just two horses (Seneschal and Elusive Hawk), and they filled the 1-2 spots, pulling clear of the 3rd. Many 'negatives' on the exchanges for plenty of their rivals, none more so that 3rd fav Truly Devine, who was 7/1 on-course while simultaneously trading at 20/1 on the machine - he was last throughout. Annabelle's Charm looked a well handicapped filly given her maiden form on the A/W, she disappointed on her handicap debut two months ago after drifting badly in the market so she was far from bombproof. Jamie Spencer failed to keep her straight when making their challenge and as a result couldn't muster a serious challenge. She probably isn't totally straightforward but she has ability and will benefit from stronger handling.
I've been as 'diplomatic' as I can be with these reviews.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 24
Winners 8
P/L +9.13pts
ROI 30%
------------
National Hunt
Bets 2
Winners 2
P/L +5.3pts
ROI 265%
------------
All-Weather
Bets 6
Winners 2
P/L +2.67pts
ROI 44%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Sunday 12 April 2009
Sunday 12th April
Plumpton
5.00 Dan Tucker 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv)
An average set of cards for Easter Sunday, Musselburgh looked especially difficult with a disappointing turnout for their 'Gold Cup'.
Just the one horse interested me; Dan Tucker in the 0-90 Classified Hurdle at Plumpton. I was on this horse for his last start, on the flat at Kempton, towards to the end of the A/W season. He looked all over the winner that night, well clear 2f out only to tire at the death and finish 4th. I think Richard Thomas got his sectionals wrong during the race, he kicked for home very early, and despite the result I was convinced he was the best horse at the weights that night.
He looked similarly well treated over hurdles and as a result was able to run in this weak looking 0-90 affair. It was unlikely there would be anything of his class in the field and I was amazed he was passed over (as such) in the morning market. Backed off the boards on course though and won like the proverbial good thing. He remains of interest on both codes.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
National Hunt
Bets 2
Winners 2
P/L +5.3pts
ROI 265%
All-Weather
Bets 6
Winners 2
P/L +2.67pts
ROI 44%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 18
Winners 7
P/L +10.13pts
ROI 43%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
5.00 Dan Tucker 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv)
An average set of cards for Easter Sunday, Musselburgh looked especially difficult with a disappointing turnout for their 'Gold Cup'.
Just the one horse interested me; Dan Tucker in the 0-90 Classified Hurdle at Plumpton. I was on this horse for his last start, on the flat at Kempton, towards to the end of the A/W season. He looked all over the winner that night, well clear 2f out only to tire at the death and finish 4th. I think Richard Thomas got his sectionals wrong during the race, he kicked for home very early, and despite the result I was convinced he was the best horse at the weights that night.
He looked similarly well treated over hurdles and as a result was able to run in this weak looking 0-90 affair. It was unlikely there would be anything of his class in the field and I was amazed he was passed over (as such) in the morning market. Backed off the boards on course though and won like the proverbial good thing. He remains of interest on both codes.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
National Hunt
Bets 2
Winners 2
P/L +5.3pts
ROI 265%
All-Weather
Bets 6
Winners 2
P/L +2.67pts
ROI 44%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 18
Winners 7
P/L +10.13pts
ROI 43%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
Saturday 11th April
Kempton
2.05
Checklow 0.5pt win - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Opus Maximus 0.5pt E/W - 8th
2.40
Born Tobouggie 1pt win - WON 10/3
Tactful 0.5pt win - 4th
3.45
Thebes 0.25pt E/W - 8th
4.45
Laudatory 1pt win - WON 5/1 => 10/3
5.25
Miss Serena 0.25pt E/W - 5th
5.55
Dance The Star 0.5pt win - 6th
Casilda 0.5pt win - 3rd
It was all about Kempton for me yesterday, they hosted a decent 8-race card wheres the N.H. meetings looked very trappy. Checklow was a fast finishing 2nd in the first. This horse showed potential but was ultimately disappointing last season, perhaps the gelding operation over the winter will do the trick and he could be one to follow this year.
I said on the line yesterday morning that I expected Born Tobouggie to be favourite, she looked a 2/1 chance to me. She impressed me last season, including when fresh, and looked the only potential Group filly in the race. Not many win so convincingly from the front on polytrack and she could take a step up in class in her stride. Tactful, who was taking a big step up in class, ran better than her 4th place suggests, she paid for chasing the impressive winner early on.
I thought Thebes was over priced at 16/1 (William Hills), his SP was more indicative of his chances. He again showed that perhaps all is not well, taking it up inside the final two furlongs only to stop instantly and wander. If he isn't feeling something, and I doubt he is given the connections, then I think he may benefit from headgear.
I thought the handicapper had taken a massive chance giving Laudatory a handicap mark of just 77. His maiden form worked out fairly well last year and the manner of his victory on his final 2yo start suggested their would be much more to come this season. He was smashed down from 5/1 into an SP of 10/3 and he certainly won like a well handicapped horse, value for much more than the 3/4l victory.
Miss Serena was beaten just 1/2l for place in the falsely run 5.25. She may have benefited from a more vigorous ride.
I thought David Probert took it up a little too early on Casilda in the last. Probert kicked for home before the final bend and she was undone by the rattling finishes of Press The Button and Formation. It was an extremely pleasing return to action for Casilda as she also chased a frantic early gallop, a gallop that played into the hands of the 1-2.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
All-Weather
Bets 6
Winners 2
P/L +2.67pts
ROI 44%
National Hunt
Bets 1
Winners 1
P/L +2pts
ROI 200%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 18
Winners 7
P/L +10.13pts
ROI 43%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
2.05
Checklow 0.5pt win - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Opus Maximus 0.5pt E/W - 8th
2.40
Born Tobouggie 1pt win - WON 10/3
Tactful 0.5pt win - 4th
3.45
Thebes 0.25pt E/W - 8th
4.45
Laudatory 1pt win - WON 5/1 => 10/3
5.25
Miss Serena 0.25pt E/W - 5th
5.55
Dance The Star 0.5pt win - 6th
Casilda 0.5pt win - 3rd
It was all about Kempton for me yesterday, they hosted a decent 8-race card wheres the N.H. meetings looked very trappy. Checklow was a fast finishing 2nd in the first. This horse showed potential but was ultimately disappointing last season, perhaps the gelding operation over the winter will do the trick and he could be one to follow this year.
I said on the line yesterday morning that I expected Born Tobouggie to be favourite, she looked a 2/1 chance to me. She impressed me last season, including when fresh, and looked the only potential Group filly in the race. Not many win so convincingly from the front on polytrack and she could take a step up in class in her stride. Tactful, who was taking a big step up in class, ran better than her 4th place suggests, she paid for chasing the impressive winner early on.
I thought Thebes was over priced at 16/1 (William Hills), his SP was more indicative of his chances. He again showed that perhaps all is not well, taking it up inside the final two furlongs only to stop instantly and wander. If he isn't feeling something, and I doubt he is given the connections, then I think he may benefit from headgear.
I thought the handicapper had taken a massive chance giving Laudatory a handicap mark of just 77. His maiden form worked out fairly well last year and the manner of his victory on his final 2yo start suggested their would be much more to come this season. He was smashed down from 5/1 into an SP of 10/3 and he certainly won like a well handicapped horse, value for much more than the 3/4l victory.
Miss Serena was beaten just 1/2l for place in the falsely run 5.25. She may have benefited from a more vigorous ride.
I thought David Probert took it up a little too early on Casilda in the last. Probert kicked for home before the final bend and she was undone by the rattling finishes of Press The Button and Formation. It was an extremely pleasing return to action for Casilda as she also chased a frantic early gallop, a gallop that played into the hands of the 1-2.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.
All-Weather
Bets 6
Winners 2
P/L +2.67pts
ROI 44%
National Hunt
Bets 1
Winners 1
P/L +2pts
ROI 200%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 18
Winners 7
P/L +10.13pts
ROI 43%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
Saturday 11 April 2009
Thursday 9th April
Wincanton
3.50 Caoba 1pt win - WON 3/1 => 2/1
Due to the time of year I'm treading carefully over the jumps, however one horse stood out for me; Caoba at Wincanton. She had some really decent form prior to a year off the course and after an encouraging comeback in late March she looked to have a massive chance in an average mares only event. She won comfortably by 16l. She was attractively handicapped prior to this (102) but the handicapper raised her 13lb for this effort, it is still possibly however, that she can be competitive off her new mark.
She was the only bet of the day, I thought the sole flat card (Folkstone) was a little trappy. One horse that came close to being a selection was Marcus Tregoning's Lady Hestia, who ran in the Class 6 'hands and heels' handicap. She had shown nothing in three maiden starts prior but it was interesting to see connections keep faith with a 49-rated horse, instead of sending her to the sales. It was no surprise to see her fare betting in this handicap, she took it up inside the last but was headed on the line by Barbirolli, going down by just a head. She will find a similar event soon.
Will keep a record of non-flat turf bets since the blog started, alongside the ongoing Flat (turf) record.
Non-Flat (turf)
Bets : 1
Winners : 1
P/L : 2pts
ROI : 200%
Flat (turf) 2009:
Bets : 18
Winners : 7
P/L : +10.13pts
ROI : 43%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
3.50 Caoba 1pt win - WON 3/1 => 2/1
Due to the time of year I'm treading carefully over the jumps, however one horse stood out for me; Caoba at Wincanton. She had some really decent form prior to a year off the course and after an encouraging comeback in late March she looked to have a massive chance in an average mares only event. She won comfortably by 16l. She was attractively handicapped prior to this (102) but the handicapper raised her 13lb for this effort, it is still possibly however, that she can be competitive off her new mark.
She was the only bet of the day, I thought the sole flat card (Folkstone) was a little trappy. One horse that came close to being a selection was Marcus Tregoning's Lady Hestia, who ran in the Class 6 'hands and heels' handicap. She had shown nothing in three maiden starts prior but it was interesting to see connections keep faith with a 49-rated horse, instead of sending her to the sales. It was no surprise to see her fare betting in this handicap, she took it up inside the last but was headed on the line by Barbirolli, going down by just a head. She will find a similar event soon.
Will keep a record of non-flat turf bets since the blog started, alongside the ongoing Flat (turf) record.
Non-Flat (turf)
Bets : 1
Winners : 1
P/L : 2pts
ROI : 200%
Flat (turf) 2009:
Bets : 18
Winners : 7
P/L : +10.13pts
ROI : 43%
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
Wednesday 8 April 2009
No Substitute For Experience
It's common knowledge that a 2yo debutant will improve greater for his/her first experience than a debutant at any other age.
This year I've noticed more than ever, the advantage of already having a run under the belt.
Many early 2yo's will bring a reputation to the course before their first run, a reputation that is often reflected in their price. Although reputations must be respected, when looking for winners it can pay to ignore well-fancied talking horses and side with those already with racecourse experience - especially when even those at bigger prices appear to run above market opinion.
When looking at all 2yo races so far this season when at least one of the field has already run, we see the experienced runners, at the very least, over performing (with regards to price).
Folkstone 31st March
1/10 runners had experience - 3rd 6/4
Leicester 2nd April
1/9 runners had experience - 1st 6/4
Bath 3rd April
3/11 runners had experience - 1st 15/8, 2nd 14/1, Unpl
Lingfield 4th April
2/7 runners had experience - 2nd 11/4, Unpl
Newcastle 4th April
3/10 runners had experience - 1st Evs, 2nd 4/1, 3rd 4/1
Wolverhampton 6th April
4/5 runners had experience - 1st 11/10, 2nd 3/1, Unpl, Unpl
Nottingham 8th April
4/8 runners with experience - 1st 11/10, 2nd 28/1, Unpl, Unpl
This year I've noticed more than ever, the advantage of already having a run under the belt.
Many early 2yo's will bring a reputation to the course before their first run, a reputation that is often reflected in their price. Although reputations must be respected, when looking for winners it can pay to ignore well-fancied talking horses and side with those already with racecourse experience - especially when even those at bigger prices appear to run above market opinion.
When looking at all 2yo races so far this season when at least one of the field has already run, we see the experienced runners, at the very least, over performing (with regards to price).
Folkstone 31st March
1/10 runners had experience - 3rd 6/4
Leicester 2nd April
1/9 runners had experience - 1st 6/4
Bath 3rd April
3/11 runners had experience - 1st 15/8, 2nd 14/1, Unpl
Lingfield 4th April
2/7 runners had experience - 2nd 11/4, Unpl
Newcastle 4th April
3/10 runners had experience - 1st Evs, 2nd 4/1, 3rd 4/1
Wolverhampton 6th April
4/5 runners had experience - 1st 11/10, 2nd 3/1, Unpl, Unpl
Nottingham 8th April
4/8 runners with experience - 1st 11/10, 2nd 28/1, Unpl, Unpl
Folkstone 9th April
2/13 runners with experience - 3rd 25/1 (from 66/1), Unpl
OK, I know I'm stating the bleeding obvious here, but I think the benefit of experience is even greater than our memories lead us to believe - the results above clearly suggest so. With regards to their apparent chances in the market they could hardly fared any better.
There are many angles here; dutch betting when multiple runners have experience, E/W betting alongside win singles for the bigger priced selections, even F/C combinations would've seen a tasty profit.
The key issue is value, at a time where many fancied horses are first time out, it may pay to side with the value of experience.
So think carefully when listening to those early season whispers and so-called reputations. After all, talk is cheap but money buys the beer.
Be lucky.
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