Haydock
2.35
Gravitation 1pt win - unpl
3.05
Main Aim 1.5pt win - WON 7/4
4.45
Wild Rhubarb 1pt win - 6th
Dayia 0.25pt E/W - 5th 50/1 (adv)
Dolly Penrose 0.25pt E/W - 8th
------
Goodwood
2.50
Crackentorp 1pt win - 2nd
Rowan Rio 0.5pt win - unpl
3.25
Yamal 1pt win - 3rd
----------
Doncaster
3.00
Hevelius 0.5pt win - 2nd
4.05
Decameron 1pt win - unpl
Mr Macattack 1pt win - 4th
4.40
Meethaaq 1pt win - 2nd
Sevenna 0.25pt win - 6th
King O'The Gypsies 0.25pt win - 7th
----------
Newbury
6.45
Silver Symphony 1pt E/W - 2nd 4/1
7.20
Supaverdi 1.5pt win - unpl
Uncle Fred 1pt win - WON 13/2 (adv)
7.50
Trading Nation 2pts win - unpl
8.25
Murcar 2pts win - WON 9/4 (adv)
Seedless 0.25pt win - unpl
Drum Major 0.25pt win - 2nd 16/1
8.55
Love Allowed 0.25pt E/W - unpl
--------------
Lingfield
8.40
Green Velvet 1pt win
All bets proofed to Racing Post
More of the same, plenty of 2nds (well into double figures this week) and hard luck stories among the losers with most selections continuing to run well.
At Haydock, Gravitation was a big drifter and ran like she needed this badly.
As expected Main Aim coped with the hike in grade and ran away with the 3.05 despite pulling early on. He continues to improve and impress.
Wild Rhubarb, Dolly Penrose, and Dayia all ran with credit in the 4.45. Dolly Penrose travelled better than anything but perhaps failed to see out the trip. Dayia ran a stormer from outside the handicap. All three are worth monitoring.
Crackentorp impressed in three runs for Gary Moore last season and given he changed hands for 100,000gns (now with Ralph Beckett) since, big things are clearly expected of him this season. He looked all over the winner when going clear in the 2.50 at Goodwood before getting collared by Red Merlin late inside the last. It was a fine effort from Crackentorp given how keen he was to post and compensation looks a formality, although it's likely the handicapper will act accordingly. Rowan Rio will do better on an easier surface.
Yamal (3.25) was given a lot to do after Dettori lost his position after a couple of furlongs.
Walter Swinburn's Hevelius was most unlucky on his reappearance in the 3.00 at Doncaster. Despite getting trapped behind a wall of horses and switched widest of all to challenge he looked to have got up in a tight finish (well odds on in photo), however the judge's verdict went the way of Jack Dawkins.
In the 4.05, Decameron was massively disappointing, weakening rapidly from halfway. It's likely he backed away from the first time visor. Again Mr Macattack took the eye, finishing strongly into 4th after a tidy start. I'm certain there is more to come from him.
Meethaaq was again coltish in the paddock before the 4.40 and with plenty of use made of him throughout he probably did well to finish 2nd, coming again after getting outpaced. Sevenna and King O'The Gypsies were disappointing.
In the 6.45 2yo maiden at Newbury, Silver Symphony travelled well but the first time out winner showed too much speed around a furlong out. Paul Cole's filly was coming back at the line though and this was her 3rd decent run. She may be of interest in nurseries.
Uncle Fred ran a cracker to finish 2nd at Lingfield for us on his previous start at a big price and he went one step better in the 7.20. Despite only just lasting home he travelled very well throughout given he raced alone for the most part he could be capable of better still. Supaverdi was never travelling.
Trading Nation was bitterly disappointing in the maiden, he looked beat very early. After a slow start he was restrained and never picked up when asked.
It looked a real case of now or never for Murcar in the 8.25; slight drop in trip, better going, recent 3lb ease from the handicapper, and the first time headgear. Everything clicked and he ran out an eased down 3.5l winner. Drum Major was the other horse to take from the race, he travelled as well but was no match for the winner.
Green Velvet ran ok in the 8.40 at Lingfield, she could find a small race on turf.
Saturday 30 May 2009
Friday 29th May
Goodwood
2.25
Munlochy Bay 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 16/1 (adv) => 7/1
Colourful Move 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
3.30
Crystal B Good 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
4.10
Viva La Visa 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Hamilton
3.55
Ingleby Arch 2pts win - 6th
5.35
Carpe Diem 1pt win - unplaced
Haydock
6.40
Dream Of Owlyn 1.5pt win - 2nd
I'm In The Pink 0.5pt win - WON 5/1 (adv)
9.10
Decision 2pt win - 4th 4/5 (adv)
Musselburgh
8.20
Dazzling Light 1pt win - WON 11/2 (adv)
That'll Do Nicely 0.5pt win - 3rd
8.50
Infinity Bond 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 7/1
2.25
Munlochy Bay 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 16/1 (adv) => 7/1
Colourful Move 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
3.30
Crystal B Good 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
4.10
Viva La Visa 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Hamilton
3.55
Ingleby Arch 2pts win - 6th
5.35
Carpe Diem 1pt win - unplaced
Haydock
6.40
Dream Of Owlyn 1.5pt win - 2nd
I'm In The Pink 0.5pt win - WON 5/1 (adv)
9.10
Decision 2pt win - 4th 4/5 (adv)
Musselburgh
8.20
Dazzling Light 1pt win - WON 11/2 (adv)
That'll Do Nicely 0.5pt win - 3rd
8.50
Infinity Bond 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 7/1
Thursday 28 May 2009
Thursday 28th May
Ayr
4.20
Sirvino 1.5pt win - WON 2/1
Hillview Boy 0.5pt win - 2nd
4.50
Lenny Bee 2pt win - 2nd
Lingfield
4.30
Mackten 0.5pt E/W - 9th
5.00
Colour Of Money 0.5pt win - 4th
One Oi 0.5pt win - 2nd
Yarmouth
3.40
Espiritu 1pt win - 2nd
5.40
Cwm Rhondda 2pts win - WON evens (adv)
Sandown
6.05
Kensington Oval 1.5pt win - 3rd
7.45
Pipedreamer 1pt win - 5th
8.50
Light From Mars 0.5pt E/W - 7th
Shamali 1pt win - 9th
At Ayr, Sirvino completed a four-timer in fine style. Until now his running style had kept him ahead of the handicapper but this performance proves how much he is improving. Hillview Boy ran well in 2nd and can find a similar event.
Lenny Bee and Ingleby Lady suffered for the lack of pace in the 4.50. Lenny Bee did especially well to get so close to the winner and the pair are better than they were allowed to show here.
Mackten never got involved in the 4.30 at Lingfield but they went a farcical pace and the form is best ignored.
Both Colour Of Money and One Oi ran well in the 5.00. The latter finishing well from off the pace. Colour Of Money may fare better down in trip.
Espiritu (3.40 Yarmouth) travelled well before finishing 2nd to Class Is Class. He doesn't seem to be progressing and looks a little soft in a finish.
Cwm Rhondda followed up on her recent c&d win under a 6lb penalty. There could be more success to come as her rating was originally very low.
A great evening card at Sandown. Kensington Oval works like a champion, looks like a champion but so far has been expensive to follow. He has been gelded over the winter and was well fancied for his reappearance, the 6.05. He travelled well before finishing 3rd. Although he didn't finish his race as well as he might I'm keeping him on my side. There are surely races to be won with him, possibly on slightly easier ground.
Pipedreamer travelled best of all in the Brigadier Gerard but again found little in a finish. A combination of the trip (10f), getting to the front too early, and Jimmy Fortune losing his whip were to blame. Will no doubt revert to a mile next time out.
Light From Mars was massively over priced (16/1) in the morning for the 8.50. His SP of 5/1 was more indicative of his chances. He came with dangerous looking run 2 out but his challenge petered out and despite trading at 1/33 in-running for a place, he ended up a close 7th. He will find easier tasks than this and looks sure to pay his way over the summer. Shamali will come on for his run and looks sure to do better in the future.
4.20
Sirvino 1.5pt win - WON 2/1
Hillview Boy 0.5pt win - 2nd
4.50
Lenny Bee 2pt win - 2nd
Lingfield
4.30
Mackten 0.5pt E/W - 9th
5.00
Colour Of Money 0.5pt win - 4th
One Oi 0.5pt win - 2nd
Yarmouth
3.40
Espiritu 1pt win - 2nd
5.40
Cwm Rhondda 2pts win - WON evens (adv)
Sandown
6.05
Kensington Oval 1.5pt win - 3rd
7.45
Pipedreamer 1pt win - 5th
8.50
Light From Mars 0.5pt E/W - 7th
Shamali 1pt win - 9th
At Ayr, Sirvino completed a four-timer in fine style. Until now his running style had kept him ahead of the handicapper but this performance proves how much he is improving. Hillview Boy ran well in 2nd and can find a similar event.
Lenny Bee and Ingleby Lady suffered for the lack of pace in the 4.50. Lenny Bee did especially well to get so close to the winner and the pair are better than they were allowed to show here.
Mackten never got involved in the 4.30 at Lingfield but they went a farcical pace and the form is best ignored.
Both Colour Of Money and One Oi ran well in the 5.00. The latter finishing well from off the pace. Colour Of Money may fare better down in trip.
Espiritu (3.40 Yarmouth) travelled well before finishing 2nd to Class Is Class. He doesn't seem to be progressing and looks a little soft in a finish.
Cwm Rhondda followed up on her recent c&d win under a 6lb penalty. There could be more success to come as her rating was originally very low.
A great evening card at Sandown. Kensington Oval works like a champion, looks like a champion but so far has been expensive to follow. He has been gelded over the winter and was well fancied for his reappearance, the 6.05. He travelled well before finishing 3rd. Although he didn't finish his race as well as he might I'm keeping him on my side. There are surely races to be won with him, possibly on slightly easier ground.
Pipedreamer travelled best of all in the Brigadier Gerard but again found little in a finish. A combination of the trip (10f), getting to the front too early, and Jimmy Fortune losing his whip were to blame. Will no doubt revert to a mile next time out.
Light From Mars was massively over priced (16/1) in the morning for the 8.50. His SP of 5/1 was more indicative of his chances. He came with dangerous looking run 2 out but his challenge petered out and despite trading at 1/33 in-running for a place, he ended up a close 7th. He will find easier tasks than this and looks sure to pay his way over the summer. Shamali will come on for his run and looks sure to do better in the future.
Wednesday 27th May
Lingfiled
Eastern Aria 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 4/1 (adv)
Multheeb 1pt win - 3rd
Elisiario 0.5pt win - 2nd
Spotty Muldoon 0.5pt win - unpl
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Eastern Aria again run solid race on polytrack in the 3.35. Despite not being able to dominate she looked the winner until late inside the last. The winner, Aromatic, benefited from drifting off the far rail inside the last 100 yards.
Multheeb was given little chance to do his best and the horse did extremely well to finish 3rd.
Elisiario looked home and dry before getting collared in the dying strides by Ryan Moore on Last Three Minutes.
Eastern Aria 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 4/1 (adv)
Multheeb 1pt win - 3rd
Elisiario 0.5pt win - 2nd
Spotty Muldoon 0.5pt win - unpl
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Eastern Aria again run solid race on polytrack in the 3.35. Despite not being able to dominate she looked the winner until late inside the last. The winner, Aromatic, benefited from drifting off the far rail inside the last 100 yards.
Multheeb was given little chance to do his best and the horse did extremely well to finish 3rd.
Elisiario looked home and dry before getting collared in the dying strides by Ryan Moore on Last Three Minutes.
Wednesday 27 May 2009
Monday 25th May
Carlisle
2.55
Tangerine Trees 1pt E/W - 2nd 17/2
3.30
Strawberry Moon 0.5pt win - 4th
5.15
First Swallow 0.5pt win - unpl
Half A Crown 0.25pt E/W - 7th 33/1
Goodwood
4.55
Seasonal Cross 0.75pt win - 2nd 6/1 (adv) => 7/2
Tignello 0.75pt win - 3rd 6/1 (adv)
Redcar
2.45
Gosforth Park 0.5pt win - 6th
Idependent James 0.5pt win - unpl
3.20
Stagecoach Jade 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 11/2 (adv)
3.55
Checklow 0.25pt E/W - 9th
(-3.2pts)
All bets proofed to Racing Post
A losss shown but plenty to take from the day's racing, many selections ran with promise and I believe I saw numerous future winners in action.
I'll start at Chepstow where Stravella and Ainia fought out the finish in the first. I believe the latter to be a well handicapped filly off 74 so both can make their mark in handicaps soon.
Dhushan took the last easily and is a decent prospect.
There were few decent handicaps (for their grades) at Carlisle. Tangerine Trees ran a solid race in the 2.55. He looked sure to run a race from a plum draw and looks as if he is coming to hand.
Strawberry Moon was subject to on-course support before the 3.30 and she ran a lot better than her 4th placing suggests. She did best of those who raced up with the lively pace and continues to improve.
Half A Crown ran a lot better than his formline suggests on his seasonal reappearance so it was no surprise to see him fare better in the 5.15. He was a fast finishing 7th at 33/1 and looks sure to make his presence felt in similar company soon. The same can be said about First Swallow who showed some promise despite finishing 10th.
2.55
Tangerine Trees 1pt E/W - 2nd 17/2
3.30
Strawberry Moon 0.5pt win - 4th
5.15
First Swallow 0.5pt win - unpl
Half A Crown 0.25pt E/W - 7th 33/1
Goodwood
4.55
Seasonal Cross 0.75pt win - 2nd 6/1 (adv) => 7/2
Tignello 0.75pt win - 3rd 6/1 (adv)
Redcar
2.45
Gosforth Park 0.5pt win - 6th
Idependent James 0.5pt win - unpl
3.20
Stagecoach Jade 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 11/2 (adv)
3.55
Checklow 0.25pt E/W - 9th
(-3.2pts)
All bets proofed to Racing Post
A losss shown but plenty to take from the day's racing, many selections ran with promise and I believe I saw numerous future winners in action.
I'll start at Chepstow where Stravella and Ainia fought out the finish in the first. I believe the latter to be a well handicapped filly off 74 so both can make their mark in handicaps soon.
Dhushan took the last easily and is a decent prospect.
There were few decent handicaps (for their grades) at Carlisle. Tangerine Trees ran a solid race in the 2.55. He looked sure to run a race from a plum draw and looks as if he is coming to hand.
Strawberry Moon was subject to on-course support before the 3.30 and she ran a lot better than her 4th placing suggests. She did best of those who raced up with the lively pace and continues to improve.
Half A Crown ran a lot better than his formline suggests on his seasonal reappearance so it was no surprise to see him fare better in the 5.15. He was a fast finishing 7th at 33/1 and looks sure to make his presence felt in similar company soon. The same can be said about First Swallow who showed some promise despite finishing 10th.
Close but no cigar in the 4.55 at Goodwood, backing the 2nd and 3rd. For the 2nd time this term Seasonal Cross came from a mile back to play a part in the finish. It looked as if William Buick had timed it just right when his mount came with a storming run down the outside but the winner kept pulling out more. Tignello back in 3rd is maybe value for a lengh of so more as his rider lost an iron briefly a furlong out. Both horses look sure to find a race soon.
Gosforth Park attracted support before the 2.45 at Redcar but too much use was made of him and he failed to show his best.
Stagecoach Jade ran a solid race behind the runaway winner of the 3.20. Omokoroa put in some good late work to snatch 3rd.
Kingdom Of Fife was impressive in the Zetland Gold Cup, had the race won a long way from home. Checklow is consistently inconsistent.
Tuesday 26th May
Chepstow
4.50
Many Welcomes 0.5pt win - 5th
Leicester
3.00
Featherweight 1pt win - 6th
Hatta Diamond 0.25pt win - 4th
Sawab 0.25pt win - 8th
4.30
Espy 0.25pt E/W - 6th
Redcar
3.10
Rosko 0.5pt E/W - 6th
Uncle Bertie 0.25pt E/W - 4th
5.10
Triple Dream 0.5pt E/W - 7th
(-5pts)
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Again, all selections run with credit without threatening. I wasn't surprised to see Kidlat win the 3.50 at Chepstow, I've long believed he was well handicapped but with two other potentially well treated horses in the field, Finney Hill and I'm In The Pink, I decided to leave the race alone at the prices. All three are worth monitoring.
Earlier on the card, in the claimer, Triumphant Welcome would've been closer (than his 8th) with a clear run. That was his best run for some time.
In the last Many Welcomes again made up plenty of late ground after getting badly outpaced. Surely a try at 7f is in order.
I was a little worried about the 10f trip for Hatta Diamond in the 3.00 at Leicester but he finished as well as any in 4th place. He has the potential to do better and will make his mark in handicaps soon.
The same can be said of another Mark Johnston horse, Toujours Souriante, who was 3rd in the 3.30. He looks to be coming to hand, improving with every race to date.
Espy is starting to look well handicapped, but despite his plummeting rating he couldn't get competitive in the 4.30. This was his best effort for some time though, travelling well and not knocked about once beaten, a return to form could be around the corner.
Finally at Redcar and the 3.10 where I thought Rosko was a little bit disappointing stepped back up to 9f. Uncle Bertie ran well in 4th, as expected him put his recent 'poor' effort on soft ground behind him.
For me, Seldom, Laura's Lady and Just Timmy Marcus were the three to take out of the 4.40.
Like many of the yard's horses, Triple Dream disappointed in the last.
4.50
Many Welcomes 0.5pt win - 5th
Leicester
3.00
Featherweight 1pt win - 6th
Hatta Diamond 0.25pt win - 4th
Sawab 0.25pt win - 8th
4.30
Espy 0.25pt E/W - 6th
Redcar
3.10
Rosko 0.5pt E/W - 6th
Uncle Bertie 0.25pt E/W - 4th
5.10
Triple Dream 0.5pt E/W - 7th
(-5pts)
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Again, all selections run with credit without threatening. I wasn't surprised to see Kidlat win the 3.50 at Chepstow, I've long believed he was well handicapped but with two other potentially well treated horses in the field, Finney Hill and I'm In The Pink, I decided to leave the race alone at the prices. All three are worth monitoring.
Earlier on the card, in the claimer, Triumphant Welcome would've been closer (than his 8th) with a clear run. That was his best run for some time.
In the last Many Welcomes again made up plenty of late ground after getting badly outpaced. Surely a try at 7f is in order.
I was a little worried about the 10f trip for Hatta Diamond in the 3.00 at Leicester but he finished as well as any in 4th place. He has the potential to do better and will make his mark in handicaps soon.
The same can be said of another Mark Johnston horse, Toujours Souriante, who was 3rd in the 3.30. He looks to be coming to hand, improving with every race to date.
Espy is starting to look well handicapped, but despite his plummeting rating he couldn't get competitive in the 4.30. This was his best effort for some time though, travelling well and not knocked about once beaten, a return to form could be around the corner.
Finally at Redcar and the 3.10 where I thought Rosko was a little bit disappointing stepped back up to 9f. Uncle Bertie ran well in 4th, as expected him put his recent 'poor' effort on soft ground behind him.
For me, Seldom, Laura's Lady and Just Timmy Marcus were the three to take out of the 4.40.
Like many of the yard's horses, Triple Dream disappointed in the last.
Saturday 23 May 2009
Saturday 23rd May
Beverley
2.15 Cotswold 1.5pt win - 7th
5.00 Herrera 0.5pt win - WON 6/1 (adv)
5.00 Solas Alainn 0.5pt win - 4th
Catterick
5.15 This Ones For Eddy 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Haydock
3.40 Set The Trend 0.5pt win - 2nd 8/1
3.40 Thief Of Time 0.5pt win - 7th
4.15 The Galloping Shoe 0.5pt win - unpl
4.15 Nisaal 0.5pt win - 8th
5.25 Eton Rifles 1pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)
5.25 Atlantic Beach 0.5pt win - 3rd 16/1
Newmarket
4.35 Militarist 1pt win - 6th
5.45 Hendersyde 0.5pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)
5.45 Buddhist Monk 0.5pt win - 3rd 12/1 (adv)
(+2pts)
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Cotswold was favourite for the first at Beverley but was one of the first beaten after connections adopted different tactics to those used previously when winning a small Catterick maiden. He may fare better if less use is made of him.
Herrera started the season on a fair mark as she made in two wins from three starts this year with a win in the 5.00. She disappointed on her last start but found the ground more to her liking here. Solas Alainn ran a fine race to finish a close 4th. He possibly got to the front too early here and despite being far from straightforward must surely find a similar event soon.
This Ones For Eddy ran another solid race in the 5.15 at Catterick. He chased a generous pace and fared best of those who raced prominently.
Regular readers will know I'm a fan of Set The Trend and he ran a stormer to finish 2nd in the 3.40 at Haydock. He is progressive and versatile and is one to keep on your side. Theif Of Time ran ok back in 7th.
The Galloping Shoe and Nisaal again disappointed in the 4.15. Although it is possible the holding ground was to blame, they are using up their chances.
Eton Rifles pulled his chances away on his seasonal debut at Newcastle but with the run under his belt he made no mistake on his 2nd start of 2009 and had the 5.25 wrapped up some way out. More success looks likely. Atlantic Beach was a big drifter throughout the day but ran with credit, "winning" the stands side race.
Militarist was a big disappointment in the 4.35 at Newmarket. Difficult to know what to make of him at the moment.
Hendersyde (5.45) made it two from two this season finding the expected improvement over this longer trip. Buddhist Monk ran well without winning once again.
2.15 Cotswold 1.5pt win - 7th
5.00 Herrera 0.5pt win - WON 6/1 (adv)
5.00 Solas Alainn 0.5pt win - 4th
Catterick
5.15 This Ones For Eddy 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Haydock
3.40 Set The Trend 0.5pt win - 2nd 8/1
3.40 Thief Of Time 0.5pt win - 7th
4.15 The Galloping Shoe 0.5pt win - unpl
4.15 Nisaal 0.5pt win - 8th
5.25 Eton Rifles 1pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)
5.25 Atlantic Beach 0.5pt win - 3rd 16/1
Newmarket
4.35 Militarist 1pt win - 6th
5.45 Hendersyde 0.5pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)
5.45 Buddhist Monk 0.5pt win - 3rd 12/1 (adv)
(+2pts)
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Cotswold was favourite for the first at Beverley but was one of the first beaten after connections adopted different tactics to those used previously when winning a small Catterick maiden. He may fare better if less use is made of him.
Herrera started the season on a fair mark as she made in two wins from three starts this year with a win in the 5.00. She disappointed on her last start but found the ground more to her liking here. Solas Alainn ran a fine race to finish a close 4th. He possibly got to the front too early here and despite being far from straightforward must surely find a similar event soon.
This Ones For Eddy ran another solid race in the 5.15 at Catterick. He chased a generous pace and fared best of those who raced prominently.
Regular readers will know I'm a fan of Set The Trend and he ran a stormer to finish 2nd in the 3.40 at Haydock. He is progressive and versatile and is one to keep on your side. Theif Of Time ran ok back in 7th.
The Galloping Shoe and Nisaal again disappointed in the 4.15. Although it is possible the holding ground was to blame, they are using up their chances.
Eton Rifles pulled his chances away on his seasonal debut at Newcastle but with the run under his belt he made no mistake on his 2nd start of 2009 and had the 5.25 wrapped up some way out. More success looks likely. Atlantic Beach was a big drifter throughout the day but ran with credit, "winning" the stands side race.
Militarist was a big disappointment in the 4.35 at Newmarket. Difficult to know what to make of him at the moment.
Hendersyde (5.45) made it two from two this season finding the expected improvement over this longer trip. Buddhist Monk ran well without winning once again.
Friday 22nd May
Newcastle
3.20 Holoko Heights 1pt win - 3rd
4.30 Mark Of Meydan 0.5pt E/W - 5th
4.30 Business Class 0.5pt win - unpl
Newmarket
4.05 Tryst 2pts win - 2nd
4.40 King Olav 0.5pt E/W - 8th
Pontefract
7.00
Cheers For Thea 1pt win - 5th
Calling Victory 0.25pt win - unpl
If You Knew Suzie 0.25pt win - unpl
Wexford
7.25 Hollo Ladies 1pt win - 2nd
Haydock
8.50 Open Sesame 2pts win - WON 6/5
(-5.6pts)
All bets proofed to Racing Post.
Starting at Newcastle where Holoko Heights was given a lot to do in the 3.20. Despite being held up way off the pace by Jamie Spencer he picked up well to get into a challenging position a furlong out- no easy task in the ground. The horse didn't receive the cover I believe he needs as Spencer was forced to challenge widest of all in the straight, if positioned and produced correctly this horse will hose up in the the grade.
Mark Of Meydan travelled well on handicap debut in the 4.30 before finishing 5th. I think this horse is capable of better and could put in an improved performance next time out. There was good money for Business Class in the same race but he was beaten very early.
Tryst looked potentially well treated on his handicap bow but never looked to be going well in the 4.05 at Newmarket. Not one to be written off though and I'm still confident he will pay his way this season.
If You Knew Suzy was travelling well in front rank (7.00 Ponty) before pulling up sharply. Calling Victory backed off the blinkers in the same race while Cheers For Thea was a little disappointing.
Open Sesame was huge price to complete a hat-trick in the 8.50 at Haydock. The generous price surely stemmed from the apparent uncertainty to handle the softer conditions. Having watched the horse thought there was every chance of him handling easy ground and therefore deemed him as value. He won nicely getting and it got a little of dough back.
3.20 Holoko Heights 1pt win - 3rd
4.30 Mark Of Meydan 0.5pt E/W - 5th
4.30 Business Class 0.5pt win - unpl
Newmarket
4.05 Tryst 2pts win - 2nd
4.40 King Olav 0.5pt E/W - 8th
Pontefract
7.00
Cheers For Thea 1pt win - 5th
Calling Victory 0.25pt win - unpl
If You Knew Suzie 0.25pt win - unpl
Wexford
7.25 Hollo Ladies 1pt win - 2nd
Haydock
8.50 Open Sesame 2pts win - WON 6/5
(-5.6pts)
All bets proofed to Racing Post.
Starting at Newcastle where Holoko Heights was given a lot to do in the 3.20. Despite being held up way off the pace by Jamie Spencer he picked up well to get into a challenging position a furlong out- no easy task in the ground. The horse didn't receive the cover I believe he needs as Spencer was forced to challenge widest of all in the straight, if positioned and produced correctly this horse will hose up in the the grade.
Mark Of Meydan travelled well on handicap debut in the 4.30 before finishing 5th. I think this horse is capable of better and could put in an improved performance next time out. There was good money for Business Class in the same race but he was beaten very early.
Tryst looked potentially well treated on his handicap bow but never looked to be going well in the 4.05 at Newmarket. Not one to be written off though and I'm still confident he will pay his way this season.
If You Knew Suzy was travelling well in front rank (7.00 Ponty) before pulling up sharply. Calling Victory backed off the blinkers in the same race while Cheers For Thea was a little disappointing.
Open Sesame was huge price to complete a hat-trick in the 8.50 at Haydock. The generous price surely stemmed from the apparent uncertainty to handle the softer conditions. Having watched the horse thought there was every chance of him handling easy ground and therefore deemed him as value. He won nicely getting and it got a little of dough back.
Friday 22 May 2009
Thursday 21st May
Haydock
1.50
Murcar 0.5pt win - 5th
Zuwaar 0.25pt E/W - unpl
3.35
Cara's Request 1.5pt win - 7th
Mr Hichens 0.25pt win - 6th
Visions Of Johanna 0.25pt win - 5th
4.10
Secret Witness 1pt win - unpl
Arrivederla 0.25pt E/W - WON 16/1 (adv)
5.20
Uncle Bertie 0.5pt win - unpl
Princess Rainbow 0.25pt E/W - WON 25/1 (adv) 30p R4 applies
Goodwood
2.50 Mister Ross 0.5pt E/W - unpl
4.00 Fallen In Love 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 20/1 (adv)
4.35 Crimson Fern 1pt win - 6th
(+4.72pts)
Update Message (Evening Racing)
Salisbury
6.30 Manchester Maverick 0.5pt win - 7th
Sandown
6.20 King Of Wands 0.5pt win - 2nd
6.20 El Bravo 0.5pt win - 5th
7.25 Antinori 0.5pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)
8.35 Lady Brora 0.5pt E/W - unpl
(-0.5pt)
I'll start at Haydock where Murcar failed to see out the 1m6f on soft ground in the 1.50. In the same race Zuwaar found the ground too easy also, as feared.
Cara's Request looked well handicapped and despite being well backed for his seasonal debut he was a big disappointment in the 3.35.
Arrivederla was a surprisingly big price for her handicap debut in the 4.10, she impressed me at Lingfield previously and at the odds I had to get involved. She looked the winner some way out and only had to be kept up to her work to score. Secret Witness looked unhappy from an early stage and is surely better than this.
The 5.20 had an open look about it and I wanted to take on those at the head of the market. Princess Rainbow (a loser for the line on her previous start) was sure to appreciate the give underfoot and looked well handicapped and over priced on her three maiden starts of last year.
I was prepared to forgive her disappointing seasonal reappearance, due to the quicker going and the possibility of her needing the run, and took the 25/1 that was on offer in the morning. She was subject of plenty of support on course and after heavy pressure she stayed on to score. There was a hefty rule 4 to pay on the advised price but it was still a huge return compared to her SP of 11/2.
Over at Goodwood, Ivory Lace looked an unlucky loser in the handicap at 2.50. Mister Ross put in a puzzling effort in the same race, he travelled well before weakening quickly and finishing last.
Fallen In Love is a much under rated filly and has bundles of improvement in her. Again I thought this was an over priced horse in the morning. Her odds of 20/1 couldn't be ignored and a small E/W bet was advised. She took this step up in class in her stride and looked the likely winner until the swooping challenge of Moneycantbuymelove. If backing a 20/1 2nd wasn't frustrating enough, I had planned to back/tip her on her intended seasonal debut (pulled out due to ground) a couple of weeks ago - that was at 5/1 in a handicap off a mark 77! Definitely the one that got away.
Crimson Fern paid the price for being too keen early on in the sprint at 4.35.
King Of Wands and El Bravo ran solid races in the 6.20 at Sandown and can definitely figure in more handicaps over the summer.
Antinori took the eye on his last start at Sandown and previously ran into the useful Set The Trend. He looked a winner waiting to happen and defeat never looked in question in the 7.25.
The hype surrounding Leocorno was justified and she turned the 8.35 into a procession. Lady Brora would have been placed with a clear run and should find a race soon.
1.50
Murcar 0.5pt win - 5th
Zuwaar 0.25pt E/W - unpl
3.35
Cara's Request 1.5pt win - 7th
Mr Hichens 0.25pt win - 6th
Visions Of Johanna 0.25pt win - 5th
4.10
Secret Witness 1pt win - unpl
Arrivederla 0.25pt E/W - WON 16/1 (adv)
5.20
Uncle Bertie 0.5pt win - unpl
Princess Rainbow 0.25pt E/W - WON 25/1 (adv) 30p R4 applies
Goodwood
2.50 Mister Ross 0.5pt E/W - unpl
4.00 Fallen In Love 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 20/1 (adv)
4.35 Crimson Fern 1pt win - 6th
(+4.72pts)
Update Message (Evening Racing)
Salisbury
6.30 Manchester Maverick 0.5pt win - 7th
Sandown
6.20 King Of Wands 0.5pt win - 2nd
6.20 El Bravo 0.5pt win - 5th
7.25 Antinori 0.5pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)
8.35 Lady Brora 0.5pt E/W - unpl
(-0.5pt)
I'll start at Haydock where Murcar failed to see out the 1m6f on soft ground in the 1.50. In the same race Zuwaar found the ground too easy also, as feared.
Cara's Request looked well handicapped and despite being well backed for his seasonal debut he was a big disappointment in the 3.35.
Arrivederla was a surprisingly big price for her handicap debut in the 4.10, she impressed me at Lingfield previously and at the odds I had to get involved. She looked the winner some way out and only had to be kept up to her work to score. Secret Witness looked unhappy from an early stage and is surely better than this.
The 5.20 had an open look about it and I wanted to take on those at the head of the market. Princess Rainbow (a loser for the line on her previous start) was sure to appreciate the give underfoot and looked well handicapped and over priced on her three maiden starts of last year.
I was prepared to forgive her disappointing seasonal reappearance, due to the quicker going and the possibility of her needing the run, and took the 25/1 that was on offer in the morning. She was subject of plenty of support on course and after heavy pressure she stayed on to score. There was a hefty rule 4 to pay on the advised price but it was still a huge return compared to her SP of 11/2.
Over at Goodwood, Ivory Lace looked an unlucky loser in the handicap at 2.50. Mister Ross put in a puzzling effort in the same race, he travelled well before weakening quickly and finishing last.
Fallen In Love is a much under rated filly and has bundles of improvement in her. Again I thought this was an over priced horse in the morning. Her odds of 20/1 couldn't be ignored and a small E/W bet was advised. She took this step up in class in her stride and looked the likely winner until the swooping challenge of Moneycantbuymelove. If backing a 20/1 2nd wasn't frustrating enough, I had planned to back/tip her on her intended seasonal debut (pulled out due to ground) a couple of weeks ago - that was at 5/1 in a handicap off a mark 77! Definitely the one that got away.
Crimson Fern paid the price for being too keen early on in the sprint at 4.35.
King Of Wands and El Bravo ran solid races in the 6.20 at Sandown and can definitely figure in more handicaps over the summer.
Antinori took the eye on his last start at Sandown and previously ran into the useful Set The Trend. He looked a winner waiting to happen and defeat never looked in question in the 7.25.
The hype surrounding Leocorno was justified and she turned the 8.35 into a procession. Lady Brora would have been placed with a clear run and should find a race soon.
Thursday 21 May 2009
Wednesday 20th May
Goodwood
2.15 Forte Dei Marmi 0.5pt win - WON 5/1 (adv)
2.15 Kaabari 0.5pt win - unpl
4.00 Isabelaonabicycle 0.5pt E/W - 6th
4.00 Look To This Day 0.5pt E/W -unpl
Lingfield
4.20 Kipchak 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv) *15p R4
4.55 Uncle Fred 0.25 E/W - 2nd 20/1 (adv)
Worcester
7.20 Now Listen To me 0.5pt win - 4th
(+3.31pts)
Forte Dei Marmi (2.15 Goodwood) wasn't disgraced behind some useful types at two, especially when 9th on his debut in one of the hottest maidens of last season. He looked very well treated on those efforts and despite an unclear passage he made no mistake in making this lenient mark pay.
I wanted to oppose the short favourite (Kayf Aramis) in the 4.00 and despite his defeat I failed to find a place from my two E/W selections. Despite finishing 6th, Isabelaonabicycle looked the winner at one stage (11/10 and 1/4 (place) in-running), perhaps too much use was made of her. Look To This Day, virtually pulled, ran as if something amiss.
Over a Lingfield, Bramalea ran well for a long way in the 3.10. There could be a small race in her over 1m.
Kipchak looked to hold an obvious chance in the claimer at 4.20. His previous two (seemingly poor) efforts could be ignored - trip too short latest and he didn't act at Catterick on his penultimate start. But on the surface he loves he was subject to heavy support and made all to score again. He is 4 from 4 on the Lingfield polytrack now.
Uncle Fred wasn't disgraced in maidens and always looked the type to do better once handicapped. I thought he was overpriced for his handicap debut and that proved to be the case. He ran a stormer, after a slow start he was finishing best of all but the bird had flown, he went down by a fast diminishing half length.
2.15 Forte Dei Marmi 0.5pt win - WON 5/1 (adv)
2.15 Kaabari 0.5pt win - unpl
4.00 Isabelaonabicycle 0.5pt E/W - 6th
4.00 Look To This Day 0.5pt E/W -unpl
Lingfield
4.20 Kipchak 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv) *15p R4
4.55 Uncle Fred 0.25 E/W - 2nd 20/1 (adv)
Worcester
7.20 Now Listen To me 0.5pt win - 4th
(+3.31pts)
Forte Dei Marmi (2.15 Goodwood) wasn't disgraced behind some useful types at two, especially when 9th on his debut in one of the hottest maidens of last season. He looked very well treated on those efforts and despite an unclear passage he made no mistake in making this lenient mark pay.
I wanted to oppose the short favourite (Kayf Aramis) in the 4.00 and despite his defeat I failed to find a place from my two E/W selections. Despite finishing 6th, Isabelaonabicycle looked the winner at one stage (11/10 and 1/4 (place) in-running), perhaps too much use was made of her. Look To This Day, virtually pulled, ran as if something amiss.
Over a Lingfield, Bramalea ran well for a long way in the 3.10. There could be a small race in her over 1m.
Kipchak looked to hold an obvious chance in the claimer at 4.20. His previous two (seemingly poor) efforts could be ignored - trip too short latest and he didn't act at Catterick on his penultimate start. But on the surface he loves he was subject to heavy support and made all to score again. He is 4 from 4 on the Lingfield polytrack now.
Uncle Fred wasn't disgraced in maidens and always looked the type to do better once handicapped. I thought he was overpriced for his handicap debut and that proved to be the case. He ran a stormer, after a slow start he was finishing best of all but the bird had flown, he went down by a fast diminishing half length.
Tuesday 19 May 2009
Tuesday 19th May
Nottingham
3.30 Miss Serena 0.5pt E/W - unpl
5.00 Resentful Angel 0.5pt win - 4th
Yarmouth
4.10 Cwm Rhonnda 0.5pt win - WON 5/1 (adv)
4.10 Oops Another Act 0.5pt win - unpl
4.40 Lady Pilot 1.5pt win - 2nd
Leicester
6.40 Devil You Know 0.5pt win - 4th
7.40 Annabelle's Charm 0.5pt win - 2nd
(-2pts)
A little unlucky to show a loss. Two 2nds, both of which, despite the result, were arguably the best horse in the race at the weights.
Caoba took advantage of lenient flat mark in the 3.30 at Nottingham and she could be of interest if turned out under a penalty. Miss Serena was well beaten after being heavily eased, it was reported she lost her action.
Resentful Angel had every chance in the 5.00 but could only finish 4th. It was another solid performance however and she should find a small race, perhaps when lesser questions are asked of her stamina.
Cwm Rhondda appreciated the return to 10f and ran away with the 4.10 at Yarmouth, given her low rating more success looks a formality. Oops Another Act weakened rapidly after travelling well for the 2nd time this season.
There was a distinct lack of pace in the 4.40 and none suffered more due to this than the runner-up Lady Pilot. She is a lot better than the result suggests and this form should be treated with caution.
Devil You Know (6.40 Leicester) was well backed but ultimately disappointing on handicap debut.
Annabelle's Charm travelled supremely well in the 7.40 but was out battled by Dark Prospect. She remains of interest.
3.30 Miss Serena 0.5pt E/W - unpl
5.00 Resentful Angel 0.5pt win - 4th
Yarmouth
4.10 Cwm Rhonnda 0.5pt win - WON 5/1 (adv)
4.10 Oops Another Act 0.5pt win - unpl
4.40 Lady Pilot 1.5pt win - 2nd
Leicester
6.40 Devil You Know 0.5pt win - 4th
7.40 Annabelle's Charm 0.5pt win - 2nd
(-2pts)
A little unlucky to show a loss. Two 2nds, both of which, despite the result, were arguably the best horse in the race at the weights.
Caoba took advantage of lenient flat mark in the 3.30 at Nottingham and she could be of interest if turned out under a penalty. Miss Serena was well beaten after being heavily eased, it was reported she lost her action.
Resentful Angel had every chance in the 5.00 but could only finish 4th. It was another solid performance however and she should find a small race, perhaps when lesser questions are asked of her stamina.
Cwm Rhondda appreciated the return to 10f and ran away with the 4.10 at Yarmouth, given her low rating more success looks a formality. Oops Another Act weakened rapidly after travelling well for the 2nd time this season.
There was a distinct lack of pace in the 4.40 and none suffered more due to this than the runner-up Lady Pilot. She is a lot better than the result suggests and this form should be treated with caution.
Devil You Know (6.40 Leicester) was well backed but ultimately disappointing on handicap debut.
Annabelle's Charm travelled supremely well in the 7.40 but was out battled by Dark Prospect. She remains of interest.
Monday 18th May
Bath
3.00 Seedless 0.5pt win - 5th
3.00 Make Amends 0.5pt win - 4th
3.00 Beautiful Lady 0.5pt win - 7th
4.00 Fancy Footsteps 1pt win - 7th
4.00 Tignello 0.5pt win - 3rd
Southwell
4.10 If Only 1pt win - 5th
4.40 Miss Glitters 2pts win - WON 7/4 (adv)
(-0.5pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
A disaappointing afternoon at Bath, although I am not writing Fancy Footsteps off just yet. She was entitled to need this and should shape better next time out. Tignello ran well in the same race and he is coming to hand.
Over at Southwell, If Only (4.10) paid for missing the break and then being rushed up to take them along. Far too much use was made of him and he was a tired horse come the final furlong. Not 100% certain he needs the recently applied headgear.
Miss Glitters looked a handicap good thing in the 4.40. She was unlucky on handicap debut days before, and despite a tardy start and needing further, she went one better and scored comfortably enough. There should be more to come.
No bet in the last but typically Another Try, a losing selection for the line on his last start, took the race at 18/1. Half A Crown was well backed before the last and ran a lot better than his finishing position suggests.
3.00 Seedless 0.5pt win - 5th
3.00 Make Amends 0.5pt win - 4th
3.00 Beautiful Lady 0.5pt win - 7th
4.00 Fancy Footsteps 1pt win - 7th
4.00 Tignello 0.5pt win - 3rd
Southwell
4.10 If Only 1pt win - 5th
4.40 Miss Glitters 2pts win - WON 7/4 (adv)
(-0.5pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
A disaappointing afternoon at Bath, although I am not writing Fancy Footsteps off just yet. She was entitled to need this and should shape better next time out. Tignello ran well in the same race and he is coming to hand.
Over at Southwell, If Only (4.10) paid for missing the break and then being rushed up to take them along. Far too much use was made of him and he was a tired horse come the final furlong. Not 100% certain he needs the recently applied headgear.
Miss Glitters looked a handicap good thing in the 4.40. She was unlucky on handicap debut days before, and despite a tardy start and needing further, she went one better and scored comfortably enough. There should be more to come.
No bet in the last but typically Another Try, a losing selection for the line on his last start, took the race at 18/1. Half A Crown was well backed before the last and ran a lot better than his finishing position suggests.
Monday 18 May 2009
Sunday 17th May
Ripon
4.10 Sirvino 1pt win - WON 11/4 (adv)
4.40 Akbabend 1.5pt win - unpl, virtually pulled up and dismounted
(+1.25pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
Tanto Faz took the 3.10 and this is a horse I monitored last season. Despite looking well treated on his maiden win he was ultimately disappointing in handicaps towards the end of last season. He was very well backed prior to this and went on to score despite looking far from happy on the track. The win was clearly expected so perhaps connections have found the key with this horse - therefore he may be one to follow.
Sirvino completed his hat-trick in admirable fashion. Despite being short of room when initially making his move and his rider losing his whip, he managed to pip Wigwam Willie on the line. More success depends on placement and the handicapper although this horse has already done enough for connections and his followers this year.
Akbabend looked beaten early, was virtually pulled up and dismounted on-course. Clearly there was something amiss.
4.10 Sirvino 1pt win - WON 11/4 (adv)
4.40 Akbabend 1.5pt win - unpl, virtually pulled up and dismounted
(+1.25pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
Tanto Faz took the 3.10 and this is a horse I monitored last season. Despite looking well treated on his maiden win he was ultimately disappointing in handicaps towards the end of last season. He was very well backed prior to this and went on to score despite looking far from happy on the track. The win was clearly expected so perhaps connections have found the key with this horse - therefore he may be one to follow.
Sirvino completed his hat-trick in admirable fashion. Despite being short of room when initially making his move and his rider losing his whip, he managed to pip Wigwam Willie on the line. More success depends on placement and the handicapper although this horse has already done enough for connections and his followers this year.
Akbabend looked beaten early, was virtually pulled up and dismounted on-course. Clearly there was something amiss.
Saturday 16 May 2009
Saturday 16th May
Newbury
1.30 Sam Sharp 1pt win - WON 5/1
3.10 Eastern Aria 0.25pt E/W - 9th
3.45 Main Aim 1.5pt win - WON 2/1
Nightjar 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 16/1 (adv)
Newmarket
2.20 Priti Fabulous 0.25pt E/W - 4th 25/1
3.30 Victoria Montoya 0.5pt win - WON 11/1 (adv) - 15p R4
5.15 Onceaponatime 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 10/1 (adv)
(+12.98pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
The most profitable day since The Prophet line has been in operation, after some recent misfortune it was fully deserved.
Despite drifting alarmingly beforehand Sam Sharp never looked like getting beat in the Newbury opener. I've never seen a horse trade so short in-running so far from home, it was clear to all he had the race sown up half a mile from home. He was allowed to coast home to record a length and a quarter victory. Plenty of good work late on from those in behind, including several debutantes, this race could work out well.
I thought perhaps the 3.10 was a little warm for Eastern Aria but at the price I was willing to take a small chance. She was restrained out the back was never looked like getting into contention. Relatively speaking she wasn't disgraced, although she was clearly out of her depth. There will be more to come in the right grade.
1.30 Sam Sharp 1pt win - WON 5/1
3.10 Eastern Aria 0.25pt E/W - 9th
3.45 Main Aim 1.5pt win - WON 2/1
Nightjar 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 16/1 (adv)
Newmarket
2.20 Priti Fabulous 0.25pt E/W - 4th 25/1
3.30 Victoria Montoya 0.5pt win - WON 11/1 (adv) - 15p R4
5.15 Onceaponatime 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 10/1 (adv)
(+12.98pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
The most profitable day since The Prophet line has been in operation, after some recent misfortune it was fully deserved.
Despite drifting alarmingly beforehand Sam Sharp never looked like getting beat in the Newbury opener. I've never seen a horse trade so short in-running so far from home, it was clear to all he had the race sown up half a mile from home. He was allowed to coast home to record a length and a quarter victory. Plenty of good work late on from those in behind, including several debutantes, this race could work out well.
I thought perhaps the 3.10 was a little warm for Eastern Aria but at the price I was willing to take a small chance. She was restrained out the back was never looked like getting into contention. Relatively speaking she wasn't disgraced, although she was clearly out of her depth. There will be more to come in the right grade.
Main Aim is high on my list of horses to follow this season and he looked to hold a massive chance in this Class 2 event off a mark of 100. There was nothing in this field with his potential and on ground similar to that he won on last season he destroyed his rivals by 7l. His handicap does are over. Nightjar has held his form well over the past few months and I thought he was weighted to run well on ground that was sure to suit. He came from way back to snatch 3rd and was perhaps value for a couple of lengths more.
Glen Molly was an unlucky loser in the 4.20, improving for her seasonal debut. If the handicapper doesn't clobber her too much for this she will gain compensation soon enough.
As I mentioned previously on this blog, Priti Fabulous ran a lot better than her finishing position suggested on her seasonal debut at Ascot and as a result over priced for the 2.20 at Newmarket. She ran a fine race and just missed out on the place money. This run will put her spot on and she must go close in similar company next time out.
Victoria Montoya had some very decent handicap form last season and despite some negative trainer comments she was very well backed for her seasonal reappearance. She travelled best for despite struggling against a strong cross wind she stayed on well to score.In the 4.05, Without Prejudice ran much better than his finishing position of 11th suggests. He was short of room halfway and lost his position, he kept on fairly well after that however and with the handicapper likely to cut him some slack, he could be of interest in the near future.
Onceaponatime ran another solid race in the last at Newmarket. He is holding his form well, and although not easy to win with, is well handicapped on pieces of form and could get his head in front if given an easier task.
Leonid Glow showed her form for the first time this season when 3rd in the 7.40 at Doncaster. She is coming to hand.
Friday 15th May
York
2.10 Electrolyser 1pt E/W - 4th 7/1 (adv)
4.45 Gilded Age 0.5pt win - unpl
Off Chance 0.5pt win - 7th
Newbury
4.00 El Bravo 1pt E/W - 6th
4.35 Apotheosis 1pt win - 2nd 11/2 (adv)
Seventh Cavalry 0.5pt win - 6th
5.10 Solas Alainn 1pt win - unpl
Newmarket
4.45 Plaisterer 0.5pt win - 4th
Madam President 0.5pt win - 9th
(-5.75pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
The going hindered plenty of the selections with most course's official going description changing drastically during the day.
Electrolyser (2.10 York) put in a pleasing effort on seasonal debut and looks set for a profitable campaign. Kingsdale Orion did well to finish 8th after a starting slowly.
In the fillies Listed race at 3.10, Moonlife was an unlucky loser, going down by just a head after repeatedly denied a clear run. Although she held her head high and seemed to dislike the whip, she would have won this comfortably with a clear and is useful.
Gilded Age and Off Chance hated the ground (4.45).
Over at Newbury it was a similar story, El Bravo (4.00) and Solas Alainn (5.10) got stuck in the mud and their runs are best ignored. El Bravo is definitely worth another chance as he wasn't disgraced and travelled well before failing to pick up.
Once again, Jamie Spencer left punters fuming with his ride on Apotheosis in the 4.35. Held up way off the pace, his mount cut through the field on the bridle, no easy tasked on this ground, and Spencer even seemed to take a pull at the one pole. When finally given the office he didn't pick up as his rider expected and the winner, Beau Fighter, kept on to score. It was a massive ask in these conditions expecting Apotheosis to pick up given the way he was ridden and for the umpteenth time this season Jamie Spencer was left with egg on his face.
2.10 Electrolyser 1pt E/W - 4th 7/1 (adv)
4.45 Gilded Age 0.5pt win - unpl
Off Chance 0.5pt win - 7th
Newbury
4.00 El Bravo 1pt E/W - 6th
4.35 Apotheosis 1pt win - 2nd 11/2 (adv)
Seventh Cavalry 0.5pt win - 6th
5.10 Solas Alainn 1pt win - unpl
Newmarket
4.45 Plaisterer 0.5pt win - 4th
Madam President 0.5pt win - 9th
(-5.75pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
The going hindered plenty of the selections with most course's official going description changing drastically during the day.
Electrolyser (2.10 York) put in a pleasing effort on seasonal debut and looks set for a profitable campaign. Kingsdale Orion did well to finish 8th after a starting slowly.
In the fillies Listed race at 3.10, Moonlife was an unlucky loser, going down by just a head after repeatedly denied a clear run. Although she held her head high and seemed to dislike the whip, she would have won this comfortably with a clear and is useful.
Gilded Age and Off Chance hated the ground (4.45).
Over at Newbury it was a similar story, El Bravo (4.00) and Solas Alainn (5.10) got stuck in the mud and their runs are best ignored. El Bravo is definitely worth another chance as he wasn't disgraced and travelled well before failing to pick up.
Once again, Jamie Spencer left punters fuming with his ride on Apotheosis in the 4.35. Held up way off the pace, his mount cut through the field on the bridle, no easy tasked on this ground, and Spencer even seemed to take a pull at the one pole. When finally given the office he didn't pick up as his rider expected and the winner, Beau Fighter, kept on to score. It was a massive ask in these conditions expecting Apotheosis to pick up given the way he was ridden and for the umpteenth time this season Jamie Spencer was left with egg on his face.
Plaisterer was well backed for the 4.45 at Newmarket but could only manage 4th. I think more use could have been made more of her, although it's possible she needs further.
Thursday 14th May
York
1.40 Cheveton 1pt E/W - 3rd 13/2 (adv)
3.10 Yamal 1pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv)
Salisbury
4.35 Miss Glitters 1pt E/W - 2nd 9/2 (adv)
Newmarket
7.25 Dona Albo 1pt win - 4th
(+6.5pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
Cheveton ran another solid race in a big sprint at 1.40, he is still improving and is veryconsistent.
Yamal is a horse I've liked for sometime and although there were some hard luck stories in behind, he was only pushed out to win the 3.10. He wintered in Dubai but the fact he was switched to Godolphin rather than one of the family's UAE trainers suggested that there were UK plans on the turf this season.
Over at Salisbury (4.35), Hughie Morrison's Miss Glitters looked unbelievably well handicapped on her maiden form. I played safe with an E/W bet as this was a hands and heels race for inexperienced apprentices and I do believe she would've won with a more savvy ride. Although it's possible she wants further, she was allowed to race alone on the fair rail and gave the leading pair a massive lead coming into the last furlong. She finished strongly and only went down by a nose in the finish.
Like many John Dunlop horses recently, Dona Alba disappointed in the 7.25 at Newmarket.
1.40 Cheveton 1pt E/W - 3rd 13/2 (adv)
3.10 Yamal 1pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv)
Salisbury
4.35 Miss Glitters 1pt E/W - 2nd 9/2 (adv)
Newmarket
7.25 Dona Albo 1pt win - 4th
(+6.5pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
Cheveton ran another solid race in a big sprint at 1.40, he is still improving and is veryconsistent.
Yamal is a horse I've liked for sometime and although there were some hard luck stories in behind, he was only pushed out to win the 3.10. He wintered in Dubai but the fact he was switched to Godolphin rather than one of the family's UAE trainers suggested that there were UK plans on the turf this season.
Over at Salisbury (4.35), Hughie Morrison's Miss Glitters looked unbelievably well handicapped on her maiden form. I played safe with an E/W bet as this was a hands and heels race for inexperienced apprentices and I do believe she would've won with a more savvy ride. Although it's possible she wants further, she was allowed to race alone on the fair rail and gave the leading pair a massive lead coming into the last furlong. She finished strongly and only went down by a nose in the finish.
Like many John Dunlop horses recently, Dona Alba disappointed in the 7.25 at Newmarket.
Wednesday 13th May
York
2.10 Photographic 1.5pts win - 2nd
3.10 Equiano 0.5pt E/W - unpl
3.45 Serious Impact 1.5pts win - 3rd
King Fingal 0.25pt win - 4th
Dazzling Light 0.25pt win - 2nd
4.20 Starburst Excel 1pt win - 5th
(-5.5pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
The first race at York contained a number of horses in my notebook; Checklow, Stone Of Scone, Moonquake and Meethaaq and Red Kestral. With two of those going off 5/1 co-favs I couldn't get sufficient value in backing a group of runners so decided to leave the race alone. All five ran with credit and I will continue to monitor their entries.
Michael Hills lost his position on Photographic as she was shuffled back from front rank to almost last in the first couple of furlongs. Despite this she cruised through the field and took it up a furlong out. She was cruelly undone by the strong finish of Brief Encounter but lost nothing in defeat. With a more competent ride it's possible she would've had an unassailable lead. The handicapper may re-assess her as at the moment, off a mark of 89, she must be one of the best handicapped 3yo fillies in the country.
Serious Impact travelled extremely well in the 3.45 and looked the winner for the most part. He could only finish 3rd come the finish, perhaps he didn't get home over 1m4f, perhaps he got there too early, perhaps he could have been sent on by Dettori, perhaps this race came a little too soon in his career? There were plenty of theories to choose from, whatever the reason, I'm certain he will turn out to be better than any of his rivals in this and he will surely gain compensation soon. Dazzling Light (2nd), King Fingal (4th) and Cyborgo (5th) all ran with credit also and will pay there way in handicaps throughout the season.
2.10 Photographic 1.5pts win - 2nd
3.10 Equiano 0.5pt E/W - unpl
3.45 Serious Impact 1.5pts win - 3rd
King Fingal 0.25pt win - 4th
Dazzling Light 0.25pt win - 2nd
4.20 Starburst Excel 1pt win - 5th
(-5.5pts)
All bets proofed to the Racing Post
The first race at York contained a number of horses in my notebook; Checklow, Stone Of Scone, Moonquake and Meethaaq and Red Kestral. With two of those going off 5/1 co-favs I couldn't get sufficient value in backing a group of runners so decided to leave the race alone. All five ran with credit and I will continue to monitor their entries.
Michael Hills lost his position on Photographic as she was shuffled back from front rank to almost last in the first couple of furlongs. Despite this she cruised through the field and took it up a furlong out. She was cruelly undone by the strong finish of Brief Encounter but lost nothing in defeat. With a more competent ride it's possible she would've had an unassailable lead. The handicapper may re-assess her as at the moment, off a mark of 89, she must be one of the best handicapped 3yo fillies in the country.
Serious Impact travelled extremely well in the 3.45 and looked the winner for the most part. He could only finish 3rd come the finish, perhaps he didn't get home over 1m4f, perhaps he got there too early, perhaps he could have been sent on by Dettori, perhaps this race came a little too soon in his career? There were plenty of theories to choose from, whatever the reason, I'm certain he will turn out to be better than any of his rivals in this and he will surely gain compensation soon. Dazzling Light (2nd), King Fingal (4th) and Cyborgo (5th) all ran with credit also and will pay there way in handicaps throughout the season.
Tuesday 12 May 2009
Tuesday 12th May
Beverley
3.00 Tangerine Trees 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 14/1 (adv)
First Swallow 0.25pt E/W - 6th
Brighton
4.10 Star Choice 2pts win - 2nd
Lingfield
6.50 The Galloping Show 3pts win - 4th
7.50 Manshoor 1pt win - 4th
Warwick
2.50 Volito 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Pipers Piping 0.25pt E/W - PU
(-6.87pts)
Tangerine Trees and First Swallow (3.00 Bev) both put in encouraging seasonal debuts, although should improve for the outing, and look weighted to be competitive in the near future.
Not sure reverting to front running tactics was ideal for Star Choice. He looked to hold a major chance in the 4.10 at Brighton, but this isn't the easiest place to make all and I think it proved his undoing.
Volito is starting to find his form now handicapped, he will be winning soon. There was clearly something amiss with Pipers Piping in the same race (2.50 Warwick), he was almost pulled up.
The Galloping Shoe didn't handle the turns of Lingfield that well and wasn't knocked about thereafter. He is worth another chance.
Later in the Lingfield card Manshoor was well odds-on (in-running) to complete a hat-trick, however despite making what looked like a winning challenge one out, he was swamped late on.
3.00 Tangerine Trees 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 14/1 (adv)
First Swallow 0.25pt E/W - 6th
Brighton
4.10 Star Choice 2pts win - 2nd
Lingfield
6.50 The Galloping Show 3pts win - 4th
7.50 Manshoor 1pt win - 4th
Warwick
2.50 Volito 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Pipers Piping 0.25pt E/W - PU
(-6.87pts)
Tangerine Trees and First Swallow (3.00 Bev) both put in encouraging seasonal debuts, although should improve for the outing, and look weighted to be competitive in the near future.
Not sure reverting to front running tactics was ideal for Star Choice. He looked to hold a major chance in the 4.10 at Brighton, but this isn't the easiest place to make all and I think it proved his undoing.
Volito is starting to find his form now handicapped, he will be winning soon. There was clearly something amiss with Pipers Piping in the same race (2.50 Warwick), he was almost pulled up.
The Galloping Shoe didn't handle the turns of Lingfield that well and wasn't knocked about thereafter. He is worth another chance.
Later in the Lingfield card Manshoor was well odds-on (in-running) to complete a hat-trick, however despite making what looked like a winning challenge one out, he was swamped late on.
Sunday 10th & Monday 11th May
Sunday (+2pts)
Leopardstown
Dixie Music 1pt win - WON 7/2
Mad About You 1.5pt win - 4th
Monday (+2.88pts)
Yarmouth
2.30 Kaspirit 1pt win - WON 6/4
3.00 Gun For Sale 0.5pt E/W - 7th
5.30 Streets Apart 1.5pt win - 4th
Director's Chair 0.5pt win - 7th
Wolverhampton
2.40 Six Wives 2pt win - WON 9/4 (adv)
4.10 Foreign Investment 1pt E/W - 8th
Redcar
3.50 Strawberry Moon 1pt win - WON 15/8
Kaspirit is only a tiny little thing but she won well at Yarmouth, pulling away inside the last. The race she was 2nd in at Folkstone on debut has worked out well. For the 2nd time in her first two starts, Daniella De Bruijn made decent late headway.
Streets Apart looks well handicapped but ran flat on seasonal debut. Drifted throughout the day and may have needed this.
Six Wives was 6th to It's Alright on debut and that race is one of the best 2yo maidens so far this season. Was surprised to see Six Wives lowered to claiming company for this and obviously couldn't ignore. She traded at a double figure price after running wide on the bend but had enough in hand to score.
Strawberry Moon is a filly I like and looked well handicapped, the handicapper shouldn't punisher her too much for this and I think she will remain well treated and win more races.
Leopardstown
Dixie Music 1pt win - WON 7/2
Mad About You 1.5pt win - 4th
Monday (+2.88pts)
Yarmouth
2.30 Kaspirit 1pt win - WON 6/4
3.00 Gun For Sale 0.5pt E/W - 7th
5.30 Streets Apart 1.5pt win - 4th
Director's Chair 0.5pt win - 7th
Wolverhampton
2.40 Six Wives 2pt win - WON 9/4 (adv)
4.10 Foreign Investment 1pt E/W - 8th
Redcar
3.50 Strawberry Moon 1pt win - WON 15/8
Kaspirit is only a tiny little thing but she won well at Yarmouth, pulling away inside the last. The race she was 2nd in at Folkstone on debut has worked out well. For the 2nd time in her first two starts, Daniella De Bruijn made decent late headway.
Streets Apart looks well handicapped but ran flat on seasonal debut. Drifted throughout the day and may have needed this.
Six Wives was 6th to It's Alright on debut and that race is one of the best 2yo maidens so far this season. Was surprised to see Six Wives lowered to claiming company for this and obviously couldn't ignore. She traded at a double figure price after running wide on the bend but had enough in hand to score.
Strawberry Moon is a filly I like and looked well handicapped, the handicapper shouldn't punisher her too much for this and I think she will remain well treated and win more races.
Monday 11 May 2009
Dam-ming Evidence, or is it?
There are reasons why just one 2000 Guineas winner since 1970 has gone on to win the Derby.
Firstly there is the trip argument. Breeding can sometimes tell just half the story; regardless of apparent stamina influences, if you have the speed to win a Guineas - will you have the stamina to win a Derby? Secondly there is the worry that a horse has already peaked, the ability to keep a horse at the very top of his game is a tough ask. Thirdly, the timing of the race, not every horse can cope with two massive asks just over a month apart.
Since 1970 only Nashwan has completed the double, but how reliable is this stat? How many have attempted, and how many of those who did had an apparent chance with regards to stamina?
Year : 2003
Horse : Refuse To Bend
Sire: Sadler's Wells (11.3f)
Result : 13th at 11/4F
Conclusion : Never raced over 1m4f after and did have success at those shorter trip, didn't stay 1m4f in this grade.
Year : 2001
Horse : Golan
Sire : Spectrum (9.6f)
Result : 2nd at 11.4J
Conclusion : Got the trip fine (won King George later), but all career best form came when fresh, the horse was unable to put in another brilliant performance just a month after the Guineas.
Year : 1998
Horse : King Of Kings
Sire : Sadler's Wells (11.3f)
Result : Last at 11/2 (reported to have finished lame)
Conclusion : Impossible to tell if he got the trip, but the fact he showed so much speed at two (dual 6f winner) suggests staying 1m4f (in this grade) was far from certain. Unlikely he stayed in this grade.
Year : 1997
Horse : Entrepreneur
Sire : Sadler's Wells (11.3f)
Result : 4th at 4/6F
Conclusion : Finished "tired" and reverted to a mile for his only run after, didn't stay in this grade.
Year : 1995
Horse : Pennekamp
Sire : Bering (10.2f)
Result : 11th at 11/8F
Conclusion : Another that was reported to have finished lame. As with King Of Kings, I have my own opinion with regards to their stamina. Although it cannot be proved, it is unlikely he stayed in this grade.
Year : 1994
Horse : Mister Baileys
Sire : Robellino (10.2f)
Result : 4th at 14/1
Conclusion : Was always going to struggle to get home given the aggressive tactics employed for Derby day, but with the evidence of the Dante (where he travelled well but could only finished 3rd) it's safe to say he didn't stay in this grade.
Year : 1992
Horse : Rodrigo De Triano
Sire : El Gran Senor (8.9f)
Result : 9th at 13/2F
Conclusion : The Derby was his 4th run of the season so hard to know exactly what was behind his defeat at Epsom, also he was ridden to get the trip so it's possible he could have finished closer - after a mid-season break he won two G1's over 10f. His Derby flop was probably due to a number of things, but as he was never campaigned over 1m4f again, the evidence suggests he didn't stay in this grade.
Despite the fact all were bred to get further than the Guineas trip of 1m (or even improve for the step up) just one definitely stayed the Derby trip - Golan. It proves that breeding is guide rather than proof in such matters and that running style and performances can be a better indication on what is the optimum trip for any horse.
At the very least it appears these horses represent little value. To me, they were all priced as if they were guaranteed to stay the Derby trip, perhaps even improve for it. On that basis I struggle to see how any Guineas winner can be value for the Derby.
This brings us nice to this season's 2000 Guineas winner, Sea The Stars, who is currently as short as 5/2 for these season's blue riband.
Being by Cape Cross there are entitled to be plenty of trip worries, however there is more stamina on the dam side (Urban Sea). He is a half-brother to...
Galileo - Derby winner
Black Sam Bellamy - G1 winner over 1m4f
Urban Ocean - 1m4f winner
Melikah - placed in two Oaks
All Too Beautiful - 2nd in Oaks
Many will suggest this is enough to see Sea The Stars through with regards to stamina on the big day, however I'm not so sure. On closer inspection we find all of the above had stamina influences on the sire side as well; Galileo (Sadler's Wells), Black Sam Bellamy (Sadler's Wells), Urban Ocean (French Derby winner Bering), Melikah (Lammtarra), All Too Beautiful (Sadler's Wells).
It's also worth noting that none of these had the speed to win a quality race over 1m. Melikah and All Too Beautiful never even ran over a mile, making their debuts over 10f. These are very different animals to Sea The Stars and making comparisons when looking for clues for the future could be dangerous.
Just two of Urban Sea's offspring have failed to win at 1m4f and both horses had less of a stamina influence on the sire's side; My Typhoon by Giants Causeway and Cheery Hinton by Green Desert.
Cherry Hinton was reverted to 8/9f after she was beaten in the Oaks, and My Typhoon was a multiple 9f winner in the States who failed to get home in both attempts at further.
Like My Typhoon and Cherry Hinton, Sea The Stars has mile/intermediate/speed influences from his sire, and like those two it's a possibility that 1m4f could stretch his stamina.
I'm not suggesting he definitely won't stay, but my doubts are surely valid, and at the current price does he represent value? As I believe a link to proven stayers has incorrectly been factored in with the price, for me the answer is simple....
No.
Be lucky.
Firstly there is the trip argument. Breeding can sometimes tell just half the story; regardless of apparent stamina influences, if you have the speed to win a Guineas - will you have the stamina to win a Derby? Secondly there is the worry that a horse has already peaked, the ability to keep a horse at the very top of his game is a tough ask. Thirdly, the timing of the race, not every horse can cope with two massive asks just over a month apart.
Since 1970 only Nashwan has completed the double, but how reliable is this stat? How many have attempted, and how many of those who did had an apparent chance with regards to stamina?
Year : 2003
Horse : Refuse To Bend
Sire: Sadler's Wells (11.3f)
Result : 13th at 11/4F
Conclusion : Never raced over 1m4f after and did have success at those shorter trip, didn't stay 1m4f in this grade.
Year : 2001
Horse : Golan
Sire : Spectrum (9.6f)
Result : 2nd at 11.4J
Conclusion : Got the trip fine (won King George later), but all career best form came when fresh, the horse was unable to put in another brilliant performance just a month after the Guineas.
Year : 1998
Horse : King Of Kings
Sire : Sadler's Wells (11.3f)
Result : Last at 11/2 (reported to have finished lame)
Conclusion : Impossible to tell if he got the trip, but the fact he showed so much speed at two (dual 6f winner) suggests staying 1m4f (in this grade) was far from certain. Unlikely he stayed in this grade.
Year : 1997
Horse : Entrepreneur
Sire : Sadler's Wells (11.3f)
Result : 4th at 4/6F
Conclusion : Finished "tired" and reverted to a mile for his only run after, didn't stay in this grade.
Year : 1995
Horse : Pennekamp
Sire : Bering (10.2f)
Result : 11th at 11/8F
Conclusion : Another that was reported to have finished lame. As with King Of Kings, I have my own opinion with regards to their stamina. Although it cannot be proved, it is unlikely he stayed in this grade.
Year : 1994
Horse : Mister Baileys
Sire : Robellino (10.2f)
Result : 4th at 14/1
Conclusion : Was always going to struggle to get home given the aggressive tactics employed for Derby day, but with the evidence of the Dante (where he travelled well but could only finished 3rd) it's safe to say he didn't stay in this grade.
Year : 1992
Horse : Rodrigo De Triano
Sire : El Gran Senor (8.9f)
Result : 9th at 13/2F
Conclusion : The Derby was his 4th run of the season so hard to know exactly what was behind his defeat at Epsom, also he was ridden to get the trip so it's possible he could have finished closer - after a mid-season break he won two G1's over 10f. His Derby flop was probably due to a number of things, but as he was never campaigned over 1m4f again, the evidence suggests he didn't stay in this grade.
Despite the fact all were bred to get further than the Guineas trip of 1m (or even improve for the step up) just one definitely stayed the Derby trip - Golan. It proves that breeding is guide rather than proof in such matters and that running style and performances can be a better indication on what is the optimum trip for any horse.
At the very least it appears these horses represent little value. To me, they were all priced as if they were guaranteed to stay the Derby trip, perhaps even improve for it. On that basis I struggle to see how any Guineas winner can be value for the Derby.
This brings us nice to this season's 2000 Guineas winner, Sea The Stars, who is currently as short as 5/2 for these season's blue riband.
Being by Cape Cross there are entitled to be plenty of trip worries, however there is more stamina on the dam side (Urban Sea). He is a half-brother to...
Galileo - Derby winner
Black Sam Bellamy - G1 winner over 1m4f
Urban Ocean - 1m4f winner
Melikah - placed in two Oaks
All Too Beautiful - 2nd in Oaks
Many will suggest this is enough to see Sea The Stars through with regards to stamina on the big day, however I'm not so sure. On closer inspection we find all of the above had stamina influences on the sire side as well; Galileo (Sadler's Wells), Black Sam Bellamy (Sadler's Wells), Urban Ocean (French Derby winner Bering), Melikah (Lammtarra), All Too Beautiful (Sadler's Wells).
It's also worth noting that none of these had the speed to win a quality race over 1m. Melikah and All Too Beautiful never even ran over a mile, making their debuts over 10f. These are very different animals to Sea The Stars and making comparisons when looking for clues for the future could be dangerous.
Just two of Urban Sea's offspring have failed to win at 1m4f and both horses had less of a stamina influence on the sire's side; My Typhoon by Giants Causeway and Cheery Hinton by Green Desert.
Cherry Hinton was reverted to 8/9f after she was beaten in the Oaks, and My Typhoon was a multiple 9f winner in the States who failed to get home in both attempts at further.
Like My Typhoon and Cherry Hinton, Sea The Stars has mile/intermediate/speed influences from his sire, and like those two it's a possibility that 1m4f could stretch his stamina.
I'm not suggesting he definitely won't stay, but my doubts are surely valid, and at the current price does he represent value? As I believe a link to proven stayers has incorrectly been factored in with the price, for me the answer is simple....
No.
Be lucky.
UPDATE 6th May - 9th May
Apologies for the lack of updates. Last week was an extremeley busy time for me off the course.
On course it was a tricky few days also, not a lot went right - a similar story for a lot of punters with it being Chester week. Will get a summary up asap.
On course it was a tricky few days also, not a lot went right - a similar story for a lot of punters with it being Chester week. Will get a summary up asap.
Tuesday 5 May 2009
Drawing to Conclusions
Much is made of the draw at Chester, especially over shorter distances in double-figure fields. Just how suicidal is it to back horses drawn high in those races?
How much is myth and how much is reality?
Below I have singled out the four races that fit the bill from the spring festival.
Race 1
5f Class 2 Handicap on day one, usually race four.
Looking at the past 11 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
7-2-8 (14)
6-7-4 (13)
2-4-8 (15)
6-1-4 (14)
4-2-1 (14)
1-5-6 (14)
3-1-5 (16)
8-2-5 (12)
6-4-1 (12)
6-1-2 (10)
4-2-3 (8)
Winners: 36% drawn low, 64% drawn middle, 0% drawn high
Placed: 64% drawn low, 36% drawn middle, 0% drawn high
------------
Race 2
6f Class 3 Handicap (3yo) on day two, usually last race
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
2-11-3 (12)
6-8-1 (10)
9-4-6 (10)
13-12-7 (14)
1-5-6 (14)
1-4-6 (14)
2-6-8 (15)
12-9-16 (16)
6-1-5 (16)
9-11-3 (15)
Winners : 40% low, 30% middle, 30% high
Placed : 40% low, 33% middle, 27% high
------------
Race 3
7f Class 2 Handicap on day three, usually first race
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
6-4-1 (11)
5-6-3 (12)
10-4-8 (9)
13-5-9 (18)
1-4-3 (18)
4-3-2 (16)
2-14-3 (17)
16-6-5 (18)
3-1-13 (17)
7-5-4 (17)
Winners : 40% low, 30% middle, 30% high
Placed : 60% low, 20% middle, 20% low
------------
Race 4
5f Class 2 Handicap (3yo) on day three, usually race four
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
7-3-9 (8)
3-6-1 (8)
1-5-9 (12)
4-6-2 (10)
7-8-14 (15)
8-1-6 (15)
11-1-5 (10)
1-7-4 (14)
4-1-5 (12)
5-2-3 (12)
Winners : 50% low, 30% middle, 20% high
Placed : 47% low, 37% middle, 17% high
If we ignore those races with less runners (10 or less) ...
Winners : 50% low, 50% middle, 0% high
Placed : 44% low, 44% middle, 11% high
------------
On races 2 and 3 we see that highs do seem to be at a slight disadvantage. Although this should be factored in when deciphering a race, the disadvantage isn't great enough to discount a horse on draw alone.
Races 1 and 4 is where the bias really kicks in. Both races are over the minimum trip and of 5f and the speed the runners hit the first bend makes it extremely difficult for those drawn high.
In the all-age handicap on day one (Race 1), no horse in the high third of the draw has even made the frame. Interestingly, middle drawn horses have a better win record than lows, perhaps suggesting that if breaks are missed on the inside it can be difficult to get into a winning position thereafter.
It's a similar story with the 3y0 handicap on the final day (Race 4) , especially when looking at those races with 12 or more runners. Those drawn in the lower two thirds of the draw performing well, accounting for 89% of all horses placed.
The bias is slightly stronger for Race 1, maybe due to the speed these seasoned handicappers leave the gates and hit the first bend, as opposed to the 3yos in Race 4.
Without doubt it is a disadvantage to be drawn high in most races at Chester, although it's possible to overcome this with class or a good ride, however in big fields over 5f, there is an argument (at least) for ignoring horses on draw alone.
Be lucky.
How much is myth and how much is reality?
Below I have singled out the four races that fit the bill from the spring festival.
Race 1
5f Class 2 Handicap on day one, usually race four.
Looking at the past 11 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
7-2-8 (14)
6-7-4 (13)
2-4-8 (15)
6-1-4 (14)
4-2-1 (14)
1-5-6 (14)
3-1-5 (16)
8-2-5 (12)
6-4-1 (12)
6-1-2 (10)
4-2-3 (8)
Winners: 36% drawn low, 64% drawn middle, 0% drawn high
Placed: 64% drawn low, 36% drawn middle, 0% drawn high
------------
Race 2
6f Class 3 Handicap (3yo) on day two, usually last race
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
2-11-3 (12)
6-8-1 (10)
9-4-6 (10)
13-12-7 (14)
1-5-6 (14)
1-4-6 (14)
2-6-8 (15)
12-9-16 (16)
6-1-5 (16)
9-11-3 (15)
Winners : 40% low, 30% middle, 30% high
Placed : 40% low, 33% middle, 27% high
------------
Race 3
7f Class 2 Handicap on day three, usually first race
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
6-4-1 (11)
5-6-3 (12)
10-4-8 (9)
13-5-9 (18)
1-4-3 (18)
4-3-2 (16)
2-14-3 (17)
16-6-5 (18)
3-1-13 (17)
7-5-4 (17)
Winners : 40% low, 30% middle, 30% high
Placed : 60% low, 20% middle, 20% low
------------
Race 4
5f Class 2 Handicap (3yo) on day three, usually race four
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
7-3-9 (8)
3-6-1 (8)
1-5-9 (12)
4-6-2 (10)
7-8-14 (15)
8-1-6 (15)
11-1-5 (10)
1-7-4 (14)
4-1-5 (12)
5-2-3 (12)
Winners : 50% low, 30% middle, 20% high
Placed : 47% low, 37% middle, 17% high
If we ignore those races with less runners (10 or less) ...
Winners : 50% low, 50% middle, 0% high
Placed : 44% low, 44% middle, 11% high
------------
On races 2 and 3 we see that highs do seem to be at a slight disadvantage. Although this should be factored in when deciphering a race, the disadvantage isn't great enough to discount a horse on draw alone.
Races 1 and 4 is where the bias really kicks in. Both races are over the minimum trip and of 5f and the speed the runners hit the first bend makes it extremely difficult for those drawn high.
In the all-age handicap on day one (Race 1), no horse in the high third of the draw has even made the frame. Interestingly, middle drawn horses have a better win record than lows, perhaps suggesting that if breaks are missed on the inside it can be difficult to get into a winning position thereafter.
It's a similar story with the 3y0 handicap on the final day (Race 4) , especially when looking at those races with 12 or more runners. Those drawn in the lower two thirds of the draw performing well, accounting for 89% of all horses placed.
The bias is slightly stronger for Race 1, maybe due to the speed these seasoned handicappers leave the gates and hit the first bend, as opposed to the 3yos in Race 4.
Without doubt it is a disadvantage to be drawn high in most races at Chester, although it's possible to overcome this with class or a good ride, however in big fields over 5f, there is an argument (at least) for ignoring horses on draw alone.
Be lucky.
Monday 4th May
Kempton
2.30
Lenny Bee 1pt win - 2nd
3.30
Invisible Man 1pt win - 4th
5.00
Dayia 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 4/1 (adv)
Warwick
3.10
Resentful Angel 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 7/1 (adv)
3.40
Glen Molly 1pt win - 3rd
Trip Switch 0.5pt win - 6th
Newcastle
3.15 Just Timmy Marcus 0.5pt E/W - unpl
Beverley
3.20
Tartan Gigha 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv)
7.5pts staked, 6.68pts returned (-0.82pts).
Selections continue to win or go close. After two big priced 2nds yesterday, to have another three today was frustrating.
In the 3.20 at Beverley, Tartan Gigha took full advantage of recent leniency from the handicapper with a clear cut victory. I'd recently felt Mark Johnston's gelding preferred polytrack but off a mark of 81 I thought he was worth chancing on turf. The stiff finish of Beverley was ideal and the win never looked in doubt.
Onto Kempton where I thought Lenny Bee had a major chance on handicap debut. He was slowly away and despite making up plenty of ground to finish 2nd he was never in a position to actually win the race.
Invisible Man was a decent 3rd behind Infiraad at Newmarket but he never looked happy back on polytrack in the 3.30 maiden. He was beaten at 1/3 on debut at Great Leighs on his first attempt. He may be worth another chance back on turf.
Uniquely Poised was an impressive winner of the following maiden and will be interesting in handicaps. Sam Sharp, 2nd after a lay-off for Henry Cecil, travelled well before getting tapped of toe, he stayed on well once beaten and should come on a bundle for this run.
In the staying handicap at 5.00, Dayia deserves plenty of credit for getting herself in a winning position before eventually finishing 2nd. A stronger end to end gallop will suit more in the future and success doesn't look too far away.
Just Timmy Marcus (3.15 Newcastle) was a drifter all day but travelled well in rear. He didn't looked entirely happy on the rain softened ground when asked for his effort, and wasn't knocked about thereafter.
African Cheetah was one that thrived on the softer going at Newcastle and he run away with the 1m2f maiden. He was 3rd behind Bothy on his last start and that race is starting to work out well.
Seasonal Cross came from a different parish to finish 3rd in the apprentice handicap at Warwick. She looks sure to find a small race for Simon Dow in the near future.
In the 7f fillies handicap Resentful Angel was rushed up to take the lead and plenty of use was made of her early on. Despite this she galloped all the way to the line and stayed on once headed to finish 2nd beaten less than a length. This was a decent effort give how the race was run and she may even be worth another crack at a mile.
The opposite can be said regarding Glen Molly and Trip Switch, who may appreciate dropping down from 7f to 6f. They travelled well enough in the 3.40 (7f) but didn't really finish their races.
Look To This Day made a pleasing return over 1m4f at Windsor and she should find a race over slightly further.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 133
Winners 50
P/L +39.20pts
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 33
Winners 13
P/L +15.10pts
ROI 41%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 91
Winners 32
P/L +15.09
ROI 14%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
2.30
Lenny Bee 1pt win - 2nd
3.30
Invisible Man 1pt win - 4th
5.00
Dayia 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 4/1 (adv)
Warwick
3.10
Resentful Angel 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 7/1 (adv)
3.40
Glen Molly 1pt win - 3rd
Trip Switch 0.5pt win - 6th
Newcastle
3.15 Just Timmy Marcus 0.5pt E/W - unpl
Beverley
3.20
Tartan Gigha 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv)
7.5pts staked, 6.68pts returned (-0.82pts).
Selections continue to win or go close. After two big priced 2nds yesterday, to have another three today was frustrating.
In the 3.20 at Beverley, Tartan Gigha took full advantage of recent leniency from the handicapper with a clear cut victory. I'd recently felt Mark Johnston's gelding preferred polytrack but off a mark of 81 I thought he was worth chancing on turf. The stiff finish of Beverley was ideal and the win never looked in doubt.
Onto Kempton where I thought Lenny Bee had a major chance on handicap debut. He was slowly away and despite making up plenty of ground to finish 2nd he was never in a position to actually win the race.
Invisible Man was a decent 3rd behind Infiraad at Newmarket but he never looked happy back on polytrack in the 3.30 maiden. He was beaten at 1/3 on debut at Great Leighs on his first attempt. He may be worth another chance back on turf.
Uniquely Poised was an impressive winner of the following maiden and will be interesting in handicaps. Sam Sharp, 2nd after a lay-off for Henry Cecil, travelled well before getting tapped of toe, he stayed on well once beaten and should come on a bundle for this run.
In the staying handicap at 5.00, Dayia deserves plenty of credit for getting herself in a winning position before eventually finishing 2nd. A stronger end to end gallop will suit more in the future and success doesn't look too far away.
Just Timmy Marcus (3.15 Newcastle) was a drifter all day but travelled well in rear. He didn't looked entirely happy on the rain softened ground when asked for his effort, and wasn't knocked about thereafter.
African Cheetah was one that thrived on the softer going at Newcastle and he run away with the 1m2f maiden. He was 3rd behind Bothy on his last start and that race is starting to work out well.
Seasonal Cross came from a different parish to finish 3rd in the apprentice handicap at Warwick. She looks sure to find a small race for Simon Dow in the near future.
In the 7f fillies handicap Resentful Angel was rushed up to take the lead and plenty of use was made of her early on. Despite this she galloped all the way to the line and stayed on once headed to finish 2nd beaten less than a length. This was a decent effort give how the race was run and she may even be worth another crack at a mile.
The opposite can be said regarding Glen Molly and Trip Switch, who may appreciate dropping down from 7f to 6f. They travelled well enough in the 3.40 (7f) but didn't really finish their races.
Look To This Day made a pleasing return over 1m4f at Windsor and she should find a race over slightly further.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 133
Winners 50
P/L +39.20pts
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 33
Winners 13
P/L +15.10pts
ROI 41%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 91
Winners 32
P/L +15.09
ROI 14%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Monday 4 May 2009
Sunday 3rd May
Newmarket
2.00
Precision Break 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Dance The Star 0.25pt E/W - unpl
2.35
Casilda 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 25/1 (adv) - N/R all bets revert to win only
3.50
Thebes 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Fullandby 0.25pt E/W - unpl
5.35
Mutamaashi 1pt win - N/R
Hamilton
3.00
This Ones For Eddy 1pt win - 3rd
Colonel Sherman 0.25pt E/W - unlp
5.20
Virtuality 0.25pt E/W - 8th
4.5pts staked, 1.25pts returned (-3.25pts).
Precision Break ran a nice race on his reappearance (2.00 Newmarket), especially as it was reported he lost a shoe. He will be interesting when returned to longer trips.
I was very disappointed to see a N/R in the 2.35, the value E/W bet on Casilda reverted to a win bet. As I expected the filly ran a race that belied her odds and she was a decent 2nd to Heaven Sent. I hope any callers that placed their bets after the N/R realised the E/W terms had changed and had a saver F/C (paid over £6). I was disappointed to see Casilda in this race as I believe she was a handicap good thing off her current mark, however you cannot blame connections and they now have some valuable black type and £14,000 in prize money. The handicapper will have his say on this effort so from a punting point of view she could be the one that got away.
Rainbow View was disappointing in the 1000 Guineas with connections immediately blaming the fast ground. She wouldn't be the first horse from the yard to disappoint in a Guineas (Raven's Pass, Nanina), and like those two, I expect her to improve steadily throughout the year and find Group 1 success at a later date. Serious Attitude travelled as well as any but looked a non-stayer. The winner Ghanaati was an unknown quantity and it wasn't the biggest shock to me when it was her that took advantage of the leading protagonist's below par runs. I knew Laudatory was well handicapped off 77 last month at Kempton!
Thebes is very consistent, and although I believe he will benefit from some headgear, I could not ignore him at the morning price of 16/1. Connections reverted to the previously successful front running tactics and I believed that helped. He travelled strongly throughout and looked the winner until Evens And Odds came with a surging run. Thebes is happier when bowling along in front, however I still thought he failed to finish his race once again. I don't recall many (if any) Mark Johnston horses wearing headgear so I don't think my pleas will be answered. Fullandby was another who hated the ground this weekend.
For the 2nd time this week I beat the odds massively with This Ones For Eddy and for the 2nd time this week he was beaten despite running well, this time in the "jump jockey's race" at Hamilton. For all my admiration of the jump boys, for the most part they have been tactically inept in the two recent races of this type, then again I don't suppose Jamie Spencer would impress on a novice chaser at Plumpton. I still believe there is another race in This Ones For Eddy, he rallied once headed, unusual for a front runner so I have to think Barry Keniry got plenty wrong with the ride, also Graham Lee failed to give Rosko (2nd) a chance to actual win the race.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 126
Winners 47
P/L +40.02pts
ROI 27%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 87
Winners 30
P/L +13.91
ROI 13%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
2.00
Precision Break 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Dance The Star 0.25pt E/W - unpl
2.35
Casilda 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 25/1 (adv) - N/R all bets revert to win only
3.50
Thebes 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Fullandby 0.25pt E/W - unpl
5.35
Mutamaashi 1pt win - N/R
Hamilton
3.00
This Ones For Eddy 1pt win - 3rd
Colonel Sherman 0.25pt E/W - unlp
5.20
Virtuality 0.25pt E/W - 8th
4.5pts staked, 1.25pts returned (-3.25pts).
Precision Break ran a nice race on his reappearance (2.00 Newmarket), especially as it was reported he lost a shoe. He will be interesting when returned to longer trips.
I was very disappointed to see a N/R in the 2.35, the value E/W bet on Casilda reverted to a win bet. As I expected the filly ran a race that belied her odds and she was a decent 2nd to Heaven Sent. I hope any callers that placed their bets after the N/R realised the E/W terms had changed and had a saver F/C (paid over £6). I was disappointed to see Casilda in this race as I believe she was a handicap good thing off her current mark, however you cannot blame connections and they now have some valuable black type and £14,000 in prize money. The handicapper will have his say on this effort so from a punting point of view she could be the one that got away.
Rainbow View was disappointing in the 1000 Guineas with connections immediately blaming the fast ground. She wouldn't be the first horse from the yard to disappoint in a Guineas (Raven's Pass, Nanina), and like those two, I expect her to improve steadily throughout the year and find Group 1 success at a later date. Serious Attitude travelled as well as any but looked a non-stayer. The winner Ghanaati was an unknown quantity and it wasn't the biggest shock to me when it was her that took advantage of the leading protagonist's below par runs. I knew Laudatory was well handicapped off 77 last month at Kempton!
Thebes is very consistent, and although I believe he will benefit from some headgear, I could not ignore him at the morning price of 16/1. Connections reverted to the previously successful front running tactics and I believed that helped. He travelled strongly throughout and looked the winner until Evens And Odds came with a surging run. Thebes is happier when bowling along in front, however I still thought he failed to finish his race once again. I don't recall many (if any) Mark Johnston horses wearing headgear so I don't think my pleas will be answered. Fullandby was another who hated the ground this weekend.
For the 2nd time this week I beat the odds massively with This Ones For Eddy and for the 2nd time this week he was beaten despite running well, this time in the "jump jockey's race" at Hamilton. For all my admiration of the jump boys, for the most part they have been tactically inept in the two recent races of this type, then again I don't suppose Jamie Spencer would impress on a novice chaser at Plumpton. I still believe there is another race in This Ones For Eddy, he rallied once headed, unusual for a front runner so I have to think Barry Keniry got plenty wrong with the ride, also Graham Lee failed to give Rosko (2nd) a chance to actual win the race.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 126
Winners 47
P/L +40.02pts
ROI 27%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 87
Winners 30
P/L +13.91
ROI 13%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Sunday 3 May 2009
Saturday 2nd May
Newmarket
2.00
Deep Winter 0.25pt E/W - unpl
Mohathab 0.25pt E/W - unpl
3.10
Monitor Closely 0.25pt E/W - 8th
Lord Shanakill 0.25pt E/W - unpl
4.55
Sopranist 1pt win - 7th
Spring Of Fame 0.5pt win - 3rd
5.30
Photographic 1pt win - WON 3/1
Goodwood
2.20
King Olav 0.5pt win - 2nd
2.55
Born Tobouggie 1pt win - 3rd
Sawab 0.25pt E/W - 8th
4.40
Devil To Pay 1pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)
Doncaster
5.40
Empowered 1pt win - WON 15/8 (adv) 10p R4
8.5pts stakes, 11.7pts returned (+3.2pts).
Mohathab was well backed for the opener but finished tailed off and eased, obviously feeling the effects of the ground - clearly better was expected. The combination of ground and some harsh handicapping seemed to stop Deep Winter's progress.
Full marks to Channel 4 for their explanation of how horses can be ground dependent due to their action. It's common knowledge that Casual Conquest wouldn't want fast ground, but the TV close-ups on Saturday really showed how "shouldery" this horse's action is. He never looked comfortably hitting this firm ground as hard as his action forces him to and the over priced Bronze Cannon took full advantage. Spanish Moon blotted his copybook yet again, refusing to enter the stalls.
Unlike some pundits, who believe we saw a superstar of Saturday, the 2000 Guineas left me cold. I see no reason to suggest this is even an average renewal, especially as I cannot help but think that perhaps Delegator left a bit on the course back on Craven day. Monitor Closely ran a cracker in 8th, one of the first off the bridle he stayed on well after the dip. He will do well over 10f plus this season. Sea The Star is now as short of 5/2 for the Derby - there will be a separate post on this matter in a few days.
In the 4.55, Sopranist looked all at sea on this fast going and Spring Of Fame failed to show his form for Godolphin and/or on turf.
The handicapper was lenient with Photographic given the manner of her debut success and she won the last comfortably. Connections may now try their luck in pattern company. Ave, back in 3rd will be winning soon, she looks well handicapped on last years form which included the sole defeat of the since improved Ghanaati.
At Goodwood, King Olav ran a solid race in the first but was no match for the winner.
Born Tobouggie confirmed Kempton placings with those who re-opposed her here but could only manage 3rd overall. She travelled well and I won't be writing her off.
The early bird catches the worm and I was that was indeed the case with the 4.40. Devil To Pay looked a horse potentially in the wrong grade and the 4/1 morning price looked huge. Those odds lasted until around 11:20am and he shortened further throughout the day and went off 13/8! He looked a little awkward on the turn and when Seb Sanders looked down soon after I feared the worse, he was then hampered by the runner-up which resulted in his losing his place (traded at 38 in-running at this point), however he picked up and stayed on well to score. Everything went wrong for this horse so he deserves plenty of credit for this win and should win more races.
The Thirsk Hunt Cup went to Flawed Genius, on this blog after his last run I made the following comments:
"although he isn't totally straightforward Flawed Genius was never put in the race. They were strung out at halfway due to a frantic pace and the horse did not receive the cover a horse of his type needs. "
He was given a much better ride by Neil Callan in this race and being short of room momentarily late on even helped his cause. The return of the tongue-tie also helped and his win came as no surprise.
It was always going to be a matter of time before Empowered won a handicap and Willie Haggas' well handicapped 4yo made no mistake in the opener at Doncaster, despite veering right when making his challenge. He has unlimited potential and should be one to follow.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 121
Winners 46
P/L +43.27pts
ROI 30%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 82
Winners 29
P/L +17.16pts
ROI 17%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
2.00
Deep Winter 0.25pt E/W - unpl
Mohathab 0.25pt E/W - unpl
3.10
Monitor Closely 0.25pt E/W - 8th
Lord Shanakill 0.25pt E/W - unpl
4.55
Sopranist 1pt win - 7th
Spring Of Fame 0.5pt win - 3rd
5.30
Photographic 1pt win - WON 3/1
Goodwood
2.20
King Olav 0.5pt win - 2nd
2.55
Born Tobouggie 1pt win - 3rd
Sawab 0.25pt E/W - 8th
4.40
Devil To Pay 1pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)
Doncaster
5.40
Empowered 1pt win - WON 15/8 (adv) 10p R4
8.5pts stakes, 11.7pts returned (+3.2pts).
Mohathab was well backed for the opener but finished tailed off and eased, obviously feeling the effects of the ground - clearly better was expected. The combination of ground and some harsh handicapping seemed to stop Deep Winter's progress.
Full marks to Channel 4 for their explanation of how horses can be ground dependent due to their action. It's common knowledge that Casual Conquest wouldn't want fast ground, but the TV close-ups on Saturday really showed how "shouldery" this horse's action is. He never looked comfortably hitting this firm ground as hard as his action forces him to and the over priced Bronze Cannon took full advantage. Spanish Moon blotted his copybook yet again, refusing to enter the stalls.
Unlike some pundits, who believe we saw a superstar of Saturday, the 2000 Guineas left me cold. I see no reason to suggest this is even an average renewal, especially as I cannot help but think that perhaps Delegator left a bit on the course back on Craven day. Monitor Closely ran a cracker in 8th, one of the first off the bridle he stayed on well after the dip. He will do well over 10f plus this season. Sea The Star is now as short of 5/2 for the Derby - there will be a separate post on this matter in a few days.
In the 4.55, Sopranist looked all at sea on this fast going and Spring Of Fame failed to show his form for Godolphin and/or on turf.
The handicapper was lenient with Photographic given the manner of her debut success and she won the last comfortably. Connections may now try their luck in pattern company. Ave, back in 3rd will be winning soon, she looks well handicapped on last years form which included the sole defeat of the since improved Ghanaati.
At Goodwood, King Olav ran a solid race in the first but was no match for the winner.
Born Tobouggie confirmed Kempton placings with those who re-opposed her here but could only manage 3rd overall. She travelled well and I won't be writing her off.
The early bird catches the worm and I was that was indeed the case with the 4.40. Devil To Pay looked a horse potentially in the wrong grade and the 4/1 morning price looked huge. Those odds lasted until around 11:20am and he shortened further throughout the day and went off 13/8! He looked a little awkward on the turn and when Seb Sanders looked down soon after I feared the worse, he was then hampered by the runner-up which resulted in his losing his place (traded at 38 in-running at this point), however he picked up and stayed on well to score. Everything went wrong for this horse so he deserves plenty of credit for this win and should win more races.
The Thirsk Hunt Cup went to Flawed Genius, on this blog after his last run I made the following comments:
"although he isn't totally straightforward Flawed Genius was never put in the race. They were strung out at halfway due to a frantic pace and the horse did not receive the cover a horse of his type needs. "
He was given a much better ride by Neil Callan in this race and being short of room momentarily late on even helped his cause. The return of the tongue-tie also helped and his win came as no surprise.
It was always going to be a matter of time before Empowered won a handicap and Willie Haggas' well handicapped 4yo made no mistake in the opener at Doncaster, despite veering right when making his challenge. He has unlimited potential and should be one to follow.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 121
Winners 46
P/L +43.27pts
ROI 30%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 82
Winners 29
P/L +17.16pts
ROI 17%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Saturday 2 May 2009
Friday 1st May
Musselburgh
3.30
Sirvino 1pt win - WON 5/2
4.05
Cheveton 1pt win - 2nd
4.40
Miss Keck 0.75pt win - 6th
Merrion Tiger 0.25pt win - 2nd 14/1 (adv)
5.15
Opus Maximus 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Lingfield
5.05
Montbretia 0.5pt win - 4th
Ancient Lights 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 25/1
A pleasing day (+5.5pts), every bet going close or winning.
At Musselburgh, Sirvino needed every inch of the 9f trip in the 3.30 but was a dicisive winner come the finish. A hat-trick looks a real possibility with the liklehood of a return to 10f next time out.
Cheveton (4.05) has progressed into a really decent sprinter and given the ground was quicker than ideal he lost nothing in defeat. The winner Spin Cycle picked up well and won with a bit in hand, he is a useful.
Merrion Tiger ran a game race in the 1m6f handicap, he took up proceedings over 3f out and was only collared in the final half furlong. He was undone by a strong challenge from That'll Do Nicely who could follow up if the handicapper is fair. Miss Keck back in 6th will appreciate a return to 2m.
Opus Maximus had shaped as if coming to hand (an unlucky in-running 7th in the Spring Mile especially encouraging) and with the handicapper easing him 3lb he looked to hold a major chance in the 5.15. He had the race won some way out and was value for more than the winning distance.
One of the most interested races of the day was the 7f maiden at Lingfield (1.40). I didn't play in the race but have the feeling I will be backing a few of the participants over the coming months. The race was won by the Michael Stoute trained 4yo Tryst who hadn't been seen since going down by a short-head in last season's Wood Ditton. He has been gelded since and the fact that Chevely Park and Michael Stoute have kept this horse rather than sending him to the sales should not be ignored. He is sureto pay his way this season. Makaam was runner-up for the 2nd time in two career starts, his debut 2nd has worked out well so far. It was a decent effort considering he was a little keen early and future success looks a formality. Euston Square, 3rd to Infiraad on his previous start, filled the same spot in this after running on well. He came off the bridle earlier than the front two and perhaps will improve over further. Roar Of The King and Satwa Star showed glimpses of ability on debut.
I thought Ancient Lights was a most interesting runner in the 5.05. He was highly regarded by Henry Cecil last season and justified favouritism on his debut last May. He flopped on his 2nd and final start last season and is obviously difficult to train. Connections have kept faith in him and given he was given a more realistic target I thought he was worth chancing at the price. He was weak in the market on the exchanges during the day, and on course, but ran a fine race to finish 3rd. He looks sure to make up for lost time if he can be kept sweet.
I felt there were more races to be won with Benhego on the flat so connections decision to switch him over hurdles this soon should be noted. He made his debut in the 5.40 at Fontwell and despite some jumping errors he won cosily enough. He is an interesting prospect over hurdles although I wouldn't rule out a return to the flat at some point.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 113
Winners 43
P/L +40.07pts
ROI 30%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 74
Winners 26
P/L +13.96pts
ROI 15%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
3.30
Sirvino 1pt win - WON 5/2
4.05
Cheveton 1pt win - 2nd
4.40
Miss Keck 0.75pt win - 6th
Merrion Tiger 0.25pt win - 2nd 14/1 (adv)
5.15
Opus Maximus 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Lingfield
5.05
Montbretia 0.5pt win - 4th
Ancient Lights 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 25/1
A pleasing day (+5.5pts), every bet going close or winning.
At Musselburgh, Sirvino needed every inch of the 9f trip in the 3.30 but was a dicisive winner come the finish. A hat-trick looks a real possibility with the liklehood of a return to 10f next time out.
Cheveton (4.05) has progressed into a really decent sprinter and given the ground was quicker than ideal he lost nothing in defeat. The winner Spin Cycle picked up well and won with a bit in hand, he is a useful.
Merrion Tiger ran a game race in the 1m6f handicap, he took up proceedings over 3f out and was only collared in the final half furlong. He was undone by a strong challenge from That'll Do Nicely who could follow up if the handicapper is fair. Miss Keck back in 6th will appreciate a return to 2m.
Opus Maximus had shaped as if coming to hand (an unlucky in-running 7th in the Spring Mile especially encouraging) and with the handicapper easing him 3lb he looked to hold a major chance in the 5.15. He had the race won some way out and was value for more than the winning distance.
One of the most interested races of the day was the 7f maiden at Lingfield (1.40). I didn't play in the race but have the feeling I will be backing a few of the participants over the coming months. The race was won by the Michael Stoute trained 4yo Tryst who hadn't been seen since going down by a short-head in last season's Wood Ditton. He has been gelded since and the fact that Chevely Park and Michael Stoute have kept this horse rather than sending him to the sales should not be ignored. He is sureto pay his way this season. Makaam was runner-up for the 2nd time in two career starts, his debut 2nd has worked out well so far. It was a decent effort considering he was a little keen early and future success looks a formality. Euston Square, 3rd to Infiraad on his previous start, filled the same spot in this after running on well. He came off the bridle earlier than the front two and perhaps will improve over further. Roar Of The King and Satwa Star showed glimpses of ability on debut.
I thought Ancient Lights was a most interesting runner in the 5.05. He was highly regarded by Henry Cecil last season and justified favouritism on his debut last May. He flopped on his 2nd and final start last season and is obviously difficult to train. Connections have kept faith in him and given he was given a more realistic target I thought he was worth chancing at the price. He was weak in the market on the exchanges during the day, and on course, but ran a fine race to finish 3rd. He looks sure to make up for lost time if he can be kept sweet.
I felt there were more races to be won with Benhego on the flat so connections decision to switch him over hurdles this soon should be noted. He made his debut in the 5.40 at Fontwell and despite some jumping errors he won cosily enough. He is an interesting prospect over hurdles although I wouldn't rule out a return to the flat at some point.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 113
Winners 43
P/L +40.07pts
ROI 30%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 74
Winners 26
P/L +13.96pts
ROI 15%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
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