Thursday 10 December 2009

Still Fairly Selective Over The Sticks

NH Season "proper" (Autumn onwards)

Is It Me 1pt win - WON 13/8
Poquelin 0.5pt E/W - WON 9/2
Fourty Acers 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 13/2
Seven Is My Number 0.25pt E/W - 4th 15/2
Poker Di Sivola 0.25pt E/W - lost
Killyglen 1pt win - 2nd
Fairyland 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 4/1
Gracechurch 0.5pt win - 2nd
Manyriverstocross 1pt win - WON 10/11
Peppertree Lane 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 9/1
Holoko Heights 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
Roll Along 1pt win - lost
Copper Bleu 0.5pt win - 2nd
Inchidaly Rock 0.5pt win - WON 4/6
Chapoturgeon 0.25pt E/W - Fell
Nothern Alliance 0.25pt E/W - lost
Harry Tricker 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 6/1
Ronaldo Des Mottes 0.25pt E/W - lost
Nomecheki 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Bormo 0.5pt win - 3rd
Zabeel Palace 0.5pt win - WON 9/4
Raise You Five 0.5pt win - WON 10/3
Whiteoak 0.5pt win - WON 15/8
Suntini 0.5pt win - WON 3/1
Beidh Tine Anseo 0.5pt win - lost
Orsippus 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 20/1
Ikorodu Road 0.5pt win - 2nd
Princeful 0.5pt win - lost
Troubletimestwo 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 16/1
Poker De Sivola 0.5pt E/W - lost
Pak Jack 0.25pt E/W - lost
Poquelin 0.5pt win - WON 9/2
Chapoturgeon 0.5pt win - 4th
Pop 0.25pt E/W - fell
My Petra 0.5pt E/W - void race

Bets in 28 races
17 winners
Staked 21pts
Returns 30.93pts
Profit 9.93pts
Yield 47%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

All-Good on the All-Weather

All bets proofed to Racing Post

A/W 2009/10

November
Tangerine Tress 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1
Colourful Move 0.5pt win - 3rd
Eagle Nebula 0.5pt win - 2nd
Ebraam 2pts win - WON 0.56/1
Jewelled 0.25pt E/W - lost
Chosen One 0.25pt E/W - lost
Carbon Hoofprint 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ensnare 0.5pt win - 2nd
Decameron 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bountiful Bay 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bestowed 2pts win - 2nd
Crimson Ribbon 0.75pt win - lost
Critical Path 0.25pt win - lost
Black Eagle 1.5pts win - WON 5/6
Fourtowns Flyer 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 7/1
Insolence 0.75pt win - WON 5.2/1
Samaaha 0.5pt win - lost
Beat The Shower 0.25pt E/W - lost
Moon Money 0.25pt E/W - lost
Business Class 0.25pt E/W lost
Kings Colour 0.25pt E/W - WON 7/1
Farcombe 0.5pt win - lost
Moojeh 0.5pt win - lost
Red Suede Shoes 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
Dance The Star 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 7/1
Black Stocking 0.25pt E/W - lost
Castlecarra 0.25pt E/W - lost
Johnny Mudball 0.5pt win - 2nd
Prescription 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ebony Eyes 0.25pt win - WON 8/1
Key Regard 0.25pt win - lost
Maria Di Scozia 0.25pt E/W - lost
Istidaam 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1
Dajen 0.25pt E/W - lost
Sydneysider 0.25pt E/W - lost
Turbo Shandy 0.25pt win - lost
Summer Affair 0.25pt win - lost
Addienaa 0.25pt E/W - lost
Onceaponatime 0.5pt win - lost
Sutton Venny 0.25pt E/W - lost
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1
Stormy Summer 0.25pt E/W - lost
Wake Up Call 1pt win - 3rd
Kings Colour 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/3
Big Bay 1pt win - WON 7/2
Sunshine Always 0.5pt win - lost
Femme De Fer 0.5pt win - 3rd
Ability N Delivery 0.5pt win - 2nd
Ishiadancer 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Spinning Bailiwick 1pt win - WON 5/4
King's Salute 0.5pt win - WON 5/2
Bahamian Kid 0.25pt E/W - lost
Onceaponatime 0.25pt E/W - lost
Zuwaar 0.5pt win - lost
Davids City 0.25pt E/W - lost
Key Regard 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Catchapenny 0.25pt E/W - lost
Interchoice Star 0.25pt E/W -lost
Saphiras Fire 0.5pt win - 3rd
Kilmun 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bahamian Bliss 0.25pt E/W - lost
Tongalooma 0.25pt E/W - lost
Head First 0.25pt win - WON 16/1
Carragold 0.25pt win - lost
Tallest Peak 0.25pt E/W - lost

Bets in 45 races
17 winners
Staked 37.25
Returns 47.21
Profit 9.96pts
Yield 27%

December
Green Velvet 0.5pt win - 2nd
Divine Force 0.5pt win - WON 11/2
Red Suede Shoes 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 5/1
Cry Alot Boy 0.25pt E/W - lost
Madhal 0.25pt E/W - lost
Running Flush 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 15/2
Son Of Monsieur 0.25pt E/W - 4th 66/1
Shannon Golden 0.25pt E/W - 5th 25/1
Prohibition 0.5pt win - lost
L'Hirondelle 0.25pt E/W - 4th 16/1
Resentful Angel 1pt win - WON 5/2
Ensnare 1pt win - lost
Istiqdaam 1pt win - 2nd
Spinning Bailiwick 0.5pt win - WON 9/4
Fairplaytomyself 0.25pt E/W - lost
Rainiers Girld 0.25pt E/W - lost
Poppanan 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 6/1
Sestet 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Espy 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 14/1
Onceaponatime 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 11/1
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Nabeeda 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Trade Centre 1pt win - WON 15/8
Tiddliwinks 0.5pt win - WON 15/8
Resentful Angel 1pt win - 2nd
Nabeeda 0.75pt win - lost
Admiral Bond 0.25pt win - lost
Lady Rockfield 0.5pt win - lost
Istiqdaam 1.5pt win - WON 6/4
Dance The Star 1pt win - 3rd
Carragold 0.25pt E/W - lost
Action Girl 0.25pt E/W - lost
The Wee Chief 0.5pt E/W - lost
Space Station 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 8/1
Sutton Venny 0.25pt E/W - WON 20/1
Sunshine Always 0.25pt E/W - lost
Fernado Torres 1pt win - 3rd

Bets In 28 races
13 winners
Staked 24pts
Returns 27.12pts
Profit 3.12pts
Yield 13%

Grand National 2010

Originally in Raceform Update 2nd December 2009...

It was fantastic to witness one of the great weight carrying performances on Saturday when Denman powered to his 2nd Hennessy win. However before Harry Findlay had finished his victory speech I was digesting what I had seen with the future in mind.

Unlike a so-called Grand National trial run a couple of weeks prior, the Hennessy has been a stepping-stone to some decent Grand National performances over the years. Of the previous twelve Hennessy fields, 23% (46) have gone on to take their chance at Aintree that season with nine (My Will, Snowy Morning, Royal Auclair, Whats Up Boys, Bindaree, Red Marauder, Call It A Day, Addington Boy, Suny Bay) finishing at least placed – and although I don’t wish to discuss unlucky Aintree horses too much, its a figure that would have been greater had Knowhere (2008), Hedgehunter (2004), Ad Hoc (2002), Beau (2001), Fiddling The Facts (1999) and Ciel De Brion (1998) stayed on their feet.

17 of those 46 Hennessy/National runners managed of a top-5 finish at Newbury, and they account for ten of the fifteen horses listed above.

It isn’t just statistics that lead me to the bet I’m about to advise, Saturday’s 3rd (Niche Market) and 5th (Gone To Lunch) strike me as ideal Grand National types.

Last season’s Irish Grand National winner, Niche Market, is still improving and put in a sterling effort to finish among the class acts last weekend. He jumps for fun and despite his stamina he’ll travel well enough to race front rank throughout at Aintree. He looks sure to go well if allowed to take his chance.

Gone To Lunch was 2nd in the Scottish Grand National back in April and although perhaps a little quirky he has a touch of class and is a horse I’ve always felt capable of a landing a major prize. Another impeccable jumper, has an abundance of stamina, but does occasionally switch off during races. However I have a feeling the National fences will keep him interested and bring out the best in Jeremy Scott’s gelding.

With the Grand National c&d bringing out expected improvement I believe Niche Market and Gone To Lunch are two of the few well-handicapped horses in the current ante-post list.

A Grand National wager this early will always carry a degree of risk but due to the tremendous value currently on offer for the pair, I believe it is correct to strike now and put every faith in connections to keep the duo fairly weighted and allow them their chance of glory. If so, then at the very least, we will be in “free bet” territory next spring.

Niche Market 1pt win – 25/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet
Gone To Lunch 1pt win – 40/1 Bet365

(ante-post bets on a scale of 1-10pts)


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I doubt there were many eyes on the Class 5 sprint Handicap at Lingfield at 3.35pm last Friday, however I believe it a race worthy of note.

It was the quickest 5f over c&d since Arganil’s Listed win back in March, and quickest in the grade since Sand Crooner’s win back in January 2008. The 1-2-3 that day won 7 handicaps (from 18 starts) over the next three months and there is every reason to expect similar success from this race.

The front two, Ediths Boy and Ability N Delivery, went very hard from the front and the pair deserve plenty of credit for maintaining the frantic gallop, and their positions, all the way to the line. Femme De Fer did best of those from off the pace, finishing with a flourish back in 3rd.

It appears very strong form for the grade and I’ll be surprised if Ability N Delivery and Femme De Fer do not gain compensation in similar company soon.

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