Still Fairly Selective Over The Sticks

NH Season "proper" (Autumn onwards)

Is It Me 1pt win - WON 13/8
Poquelin 0.5pt E/W - WON 9/2
Fourty Acers 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 13/2
Seven Is My Number 0.25pt E/W - 4th 15/2
Poker Di Sivola 0.25pt E/W - lost
Killyglen 1pt win - 2nd
Fairyland 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 4/1
Gracechurch 0.5pt win - 2nd
Manyriverstocross 1pt win - WON 10/11
Peppertree Lane 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 9/1
Holoko Heights 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
Roll Along 1pt win - lost
Copper Bleu 0.5pt win - 2nd
Inchidaly Rock 0.5pt win - WON 4/6
Chapoturgeon 0.25pt E/W - Fell
Nothern Alliance 0.25pt E/W - lost
Harry Tricker 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 6/1
Ronaldo Des Mottes 0.25pt E/W - lost
Nomecheki 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Bormo 0.5pt win - 3rd
Zabeel Palace 0.5pt win - WON 9/4
Raise You Five 0.5pt win - WON 10/3
Whiteoak 0.5pt win - WON 15/8
Suntini 0.5pt win - WON 3/1
Beidh Tine Anseo 0.5pt win - lost
Orsippus 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 20/1
Ikorodu Road 0.5pt win - 2nd
Princeful 0.5pt win - lost
Troubletimestwo 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 16/1
Poker De Sivola 0.5pt E/W - lost
Pak Jack 0.25pt E/W - lost
Poquelin 0.5pt win - WON 9/2
Chapoturgeon 0.5pt win - 4th
Pop 0.25pt E/W - fell
My Petra 0.5pt E/W - void race

Bets in 28 races
17 winners
Staked 21pts
Returns 30.93pts
Profit 9.93pts
Yield 47%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

All-Good on the All-Weather

All bets proofed to Racing Post

A/W 2009/10

November
Tangerine Tress 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1
Colourful Move 0.5pt win - 3rd
Eagle Nebula 0.5pt win - 2nd
Ebraam 2pts win - WON 0.56/1
Jewelled 0.25pt E/W - lost
Chosen One 0.25pt E/W - lost
Carbon Hoofprint 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ensnare 0.5pt win - 2nd
Decameron 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bountiful Bay 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bestowed 2pts win - 2nd
Crimson Ribbon 0.75pt win - lost
Critical Path 0.25pt win - lost
Black Eagle 1.5pts win - WON 5/6
Fourtowns Flyer 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 7/1
Insolence 0.75pt win - WON 5.2/1
Samaaha 0.5pt win - lost
Beat The Shower 0.25pt E/W - lost
Moon Money 0.25pt E/W - lost
Business Class 0.25pt E/W lost
Kings Colour 0.25pt E/W - WON 7/1
Farcombe 0.5pt win - lost
Moojeh 0.5pt win - lost
Red Suede Shoes 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
Dance The Star 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 7/1
Black Stocking 0.25pt E/W - lost
Castlecarra 0.25pt E/W - lost
Johnny Mudball 0.5pt win - 2nd
Prescription 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ebony Eyes 0.25pt win - WON 8/1
Key Regard 0.25pt win - lost
Maria Di Scozia 0.25pt E/W - lost
Istidaam 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1
Dajen 0.25pt E/W - lost
Sydneysider 0.25pt E/W - lost
Turbo Shandy 0.25pt win - lost
Summer Affair 0.25pt win - lost
Addienaa 0.25pt E/W - lost
Onceaponatime 0.5pt win - lost
Sutton Venny 0.25pt E/W - lost
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1
Stormy Summer 0.25pt E/W - lost
Wake Up Call 1pt win - 3rd
Kings Colour 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/3
Big Bay 1pt win - WON 7/2
Sunshine Always 0.5pt win - lost
Femme De Fer 0.5pt win - 3rd
Ability N Delivery 0.5pt win - 2nd
Ishiadancer 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Spinning Bailiwick 1pt win - WON 5/4
King's Salute 0.5pt win - WON 5/2
Bahamian Kid 0.25pt E/W - lost
Onceaponatime 0.25pt E/W - lost
Zuwaar 0.5pt win - lost
Davids City 0.25pt E/W - lost
Key Regard 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Catchapenny 0.25pt E/W - lost
Interchoice Star 0.25pt E/W -lost
Saphiras Fire 0.5pt win - 3rd
Kilmun 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bahamian Bliss 0.25pt E/W - lost
Tongalooma 0.25pt E/W - lost
Head First 0.25pt win - WON 16/1
Carragold 0.25pt win - lost
Tallest Peak 0.25pt E/W - lost

Bets in 45 races
17 winners
Staked 37.25
Returns 47.21
Profit 9.96pts
Yield 27%

December
Green Velvet 0.5pt win - 2nd
Divine Force 0.5pt win - WON 11/2
Red Suede Shoes 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 5/1
Cry Alot Boy 0.25pt E/W - lost
Madhal 0.25pt E/W - lost
Running Flush 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 15/2
Son Of Monsieur 0.25pt E/W - 4th 66/1
Shannon Golden 0.25pt E/W - 5th 25/1
Prohibition 0.5pt win - lost
L'Hirondelle 0.25pt E/W - 4th 16/1
Resentful Angel 1pt win - WON 5/2
Ensnare 1pt win - lost
Istiqdaam 1pt win - 2nd
Spinning Bailiwick 0.5pt win - WON 9/4
Fairplaytomyself 0.25pt E/W - lost
Rainiers Girld 0.25pt E/W - lost
Poppanan 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 6/1
Sestet 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Espy 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 14/1
Onceaponatime 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 11/1
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Nabeeda 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Trade Centre 1pt win - WON 15/8
Tiddliwinks 0.5pt win - WON 15/8
Resentful Angel 1pt win - 2nd
Nabeeda 0.75pt win - lost
Admiral Bond 0.25pt win - lost
Lady Rockfield 0.5pt win - lost
Istiqdaam 1.5pt win - WON 6/4
Dance The Star 1pt win - 3rd
Carragold 0.25pt E/W - lost
Action Girl 0.25pt E/W - lost
The Wee Chief 0.5pt E/W - lost
Space Station 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 8/1
Sutton Venny 0.25pt E/W - WON 20/1
Sunshine Always 0.25pt E/W - lost
Fernado Torres 1pt win - 3rd

Bets In 28 races
13 winners
Staked 24pts
Returns 27.12pts
Profit 3.12pts
Yield 13%

Grand National 2010

Originally in Raceform Update 2nd December 2009...

It was fantastic to witness one of the great weight carrying performances on Saturday when Denman powered to his 2nd Hennessy win. However before Harry Findlay had finished his victory speech I was digesting what I had seen with the future in mind.

Unlike a so-called Grand National trial run a couple of weeks prior, the Hennessy has been a stepping-stone to some decent Grand National performances over the years. Of the previous twelve Hennessy fields, 23% (46) have gone on to take their chance at Aintree that season with nine (My Will, Snowy Morning, Royal Auclair, Whats Up Boys, Bindaree, Red Marauder, Call It A Day, Addington Boy, Suny Bay) finishing at least placed – and although I don’t wish to discuss unlucky Aintree horses too much, its a figure that would have been greater had Knowhere (2008), Hedgehunter (2004), Ad Hoc (2002), Beau (2001), Fiddling The Facts (1999) and Ciel De Brion (1998) stayed on their feet.

17 of those 46 Hennessy/National runners managed of a top-5 finish at Newbury, and they account for ten of the fifteen horses listed above.

It isn’t just statistics that lead me to the bet I’m about to advise, Saturday’s 3rd (Niche Market) and 5th (Gone To Lunch) strike me as ideal Grand National types.

Last season’s Irish Grand National winner, Niche Market, is still improving and put in a sterling effort to finish among the class acts last weekend. He jumps for fun and despite his stamina he’ll travel well enough to race front rank throughout at Aintree. He looks sure to go well if allowed to take his chance.

Gone To Lunch was 2nd in the Scottish Grand National back in April and although perhaps a little quirky he has a touch of class and is a horse I’ve always felt capable of a landing a major prize. Another impeccable jumper, has an abundance of stamina, but does occasionally switch off during races. However I have a feeling the National fences will keep him interested and bring out the best in Jeremy Scott’s gelding.

With the Grand National c&d bringing out expected improvement I believe Niche Market and Gone To Lunch are two of the few well-handicapped horses in the current ante-post list.

A Grand National wager this early will always carry a degree of risk but due to the tremendous value currently on offer for the pair, I believe it is correct to strike now and put every faith in connections to keep the duo fairly weighted and allow them their chance of glory. If so, then at the very least, we will be in “free bet” territory next spring.

Niche Market 1pt win – 25/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet
Gone To Lunch 1pt win – 40/1 Bet365

(ante-post bets on a scale of 1-10pts)


------------------------------------------------

I doubt there were many eyes on the Class 5 sprint Handicap at Lingfield at 3.35pm last Friday, however I believe it a race worthy of note.

It was the quickest 5f over c&d since Arganil’s Listed win back in March, and quickest in the grade since Sand Crooner’s win back in January 2008. The 1-2-3 that day won 7 handicaps (from 18 starts) over the next three months and there is every reason to expect similar success from this race.

The front two, Ediths Boy and Ability N Delivery, went very hard from the front and the pair deserve plenty of credit for maintaining the frantic gallop, and their positions, all the way to the line. Femme De Fer did best of those from off the pace, finishing with a flourish back in 3rd.

It appears very strong form for the grade and I’ll be surprised if Ability N Delivery and Femme De Fer do not gain compensation in similar company soon.

------------------------------------------------

A Vacant Belt Come March?

Despite what the market currently tells us, due to the leading protagonists vulnerabilities, this season's Queen Mother Champion Chase could well be up for grabs.

Master Minded has disappointed at home as well as on the course recently, and with bone scans planned we must look for a viable alternative.

Current 2nd favourite Big Zeb is classy enough but with four falls from eleven chase starts to date, a clear round at Cheltenham is far from certain. If someone will lay me "fall no-bet" I'll get involved.

I was lucky enough to back Well Chief ante-post for the Arkle at 33/1. His legs were not as brittle back then, and as brilliant as he is around Cheltenham, he is no longer an ante-post proposition. I'll wait to see what condition he is come the day before I include him in any calculations.

It's a possibility these three may not be in the race with a circuit to run on that Wednesday in March, so with most firms going double-figures bar, there must be some risk-free ante-post value around. Risk-free in the sense that bigger priced selections backed now will be a similar price if the big guns line up, but will be a fraction of the price if any of the A-Team fail in make it.

Voy Por Ustedes, Crackaway Jack and Schindlers Hunt will almost certainly run in more suitable races so are far from ideal ante-post possibilities.

Last season's Arkle 1-2, Forpadydeplasterer and Kalahari King, don't interest me the prices. I still believe both will need further to be at their best and it's no surprise to see them a similar price for the Ryanair Chase.

Barker's (who?) 12/1 quote looks very stingy indeed. It's solely based on his two improved runs last April, the last of which a 15l victory over Forpadydeplaster. In my opinion this one time 90-odd handicap hurdler hasn't the class to be a Champion Chaser and his odds are at least a third of what they should be.

It leaves me with an obvious and perhaps uninspiring selection in Petit Robin. A 9l third at 12/1 last season on only his fourth chase start, he ran better than the formline suggest when a well-beaten 7th on his final start 2m4f Melling Chase at Aintree.

After Cheltenham his stable spoke of step ups in trip to "avoid the winner (Master Minded)". Given the sudden uncertainty regarding Master Minded it wouldn't surprise me if connections re-nag on that idea and had another crack at the 2m prize.

His left-handed form is very decent and with another year behind him he may not put in his one blunder per race - if that is the case there is every reason to believe he can improve on his 3rd last year, even if class acts do show up. If they don't it leaves the door wide open and only a just a reproduction of last year's effort will see him fight out the finish.

A speculative E/W at Ladbrokes and William Hill's 33/1 is in order.

STOP PRESS - AN UPDATE!!!

It's been some time since I updated this blog. Time constraints was one reason but I was also waiting for some news before making a decision with this blog.

This blog will now be just an update of results. My thoughts and articles can soon be found on a weekly basis in Raceform Update.

The flat season is now over and the line has performed very well in the difficult period since.

Below is a record of bets so far in the A/W season, as well as all NH bets so far this autumn.

A/W 2009/10
Tangerine Tress 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1
Colourful Move 0.5pt win - 3rd
Eagle Nebula 0.5pt win - 2nd
Ebraam 2pts win - WON 0.56/1
Jewelled 0.25pt E/W - lost
Chosen One 0.25pt E/W - lost
Carbon Hoofprint 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ensnare 0.5pt win - 2nd
Decameron 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bountiful Bay 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bestowed 2pts win - 2nd
Crimson Ribbon 0.75pt win - lost
Critical Path 0.25pt win - lost
Black Eagle 1.5pts win - WON 5/6
Fourtowns Flyer 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 7/1
Insolence 0.75pt win - WON 5.2/1
Samaaha 0.5pt win - lost
Beat The Shower 0.25pt E/W - lost
Moon Money 0.25pt E/W - lost
Business Class 0.25pt E/W lost
Kings Colour 0.25pt E/W - WON 7/1
Farcombe 0.5pt win - lost
Moojeh 0.5pt win - lost
Red Suede Shoes 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
Dance The Star 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 7/1
Black Stocking 0.25pt E/W - lost
Castlecarra 0.25pt E/W - lost
Johnny Mudball 0.5pt win - 2nd
Prescription 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ebony Eyes 0.25pt win - WON 8/1
Key Regard 0.25pt win - lost
Maria Di Scozia 0.25pt E/W - lost
Istidaam 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1
Dajen 0.25pt E/W - lost
Sydneysider 0.25pt E/W - lost
Turbo Shandy 0.25pt win - lost
Summer Affair 0.25pt win - lost
Addienaa 0.25pt E/W - lost
Onceaponatime 0.5pt win - lost
Sutton Venny 0.25pt E/W - lost
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1
Stormy Summer 0.25pt E/W - lost

Bets in 31 races
11 winners
Staked 24.75pts
Returns 30.04pts
Profit 5.29pts
Yield 21%

NH Season "proper" (Autumn onwards)
Is It Me 1pt win - WON 13/8
Poquelin 0.5pt E/W - WON 9/2
Fourty Acers 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 13/2
Seven Is My Number 0.25pt E/W - 4th 15/2
Poker Di Sivola 0.25pt E/W - lost
Killyglen 1pt win - 2nd
Fairyland 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 4/1
Gracechurch 0.5pt win - 2nd
Manyriverstocross 1pt win - WON 10/11
Peppertree Lane 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 9/1
Holoko Heights 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
Roll Along 1pt win - lost
Copper Bleu 0.5pt win - 2nd
Inchidaly Rock 0.5pt win - WON 4/6
Chapoturgeon 0.25pt E/W - Fell
Nothern Alliance 0.25pt E/W - lost
Harry Tricker 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 6/1
Ronaldo Des Mottes 0.25pt E/W - lost
Nomecheki 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Bormo 0.5pt win - 3rd
Zabeel Palace 0.5pt win - WON 9/4
Raise You Five 0.5pt win - WON 10/3
Whiteoak 0.5pt win - WON 15/8
Suntini 0.5pt win - WON 3/1

Bets in 20 races
15 winners
Staked 15.5pts
Returns 26.93pts
Profit 11.43pts
Yield 74%

Another September Update

It's been a fantastic month so far which included a 10-day winning run. Been very busy once again so here is an update in one post.

11th September
Brave Prospector 0.25pt E/W - WON 16/1
Lowther 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Deserk Kiss 0.5pt win - WON 13/2 (adv) DISQUALIFIED
Truly Asia 0.5pt win - 3rd
Life's Challenge 1pt win - 3rd
Espy 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 6/1 (adv)
Galliotto 0.5pt win - unplaced

12th September
Mustakmil 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Chichen Daawe 1pt win - WON 3/1
Santo Padra 0.25pt E/W - WON 18/1 (adv)
Orpsie Boy 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

13th September
Kerrys Requiem 0.5pt E/W - 5th
Act Of Kalanisi 0.5pt win - 6th
Dance The Star 0.5pt win - 4th
Carbon Hoofprint 0.25pt E/W - 6th
Lenny Bee 1pt win 3rd

14th September
Ms Sophie Eleanor 1pt win - unplaced
Hightime Heroine 1pt win - 2nd

15th September
Theocritus 1pt win - 3rd
No Wonga 0.5pt E/W - WON 15/2

16th September
Mutawarath 0.5pt win - unplaced
Militarist 0.5pt win - unplaced
Pipers Piping 0.25pt E/W - 5th

17th September
She's In The Money 0.5pt win - WON 6/1
Leonid Glow 0.5pt win - 2nd
Eastern Hills 0.25pt E/W - unplaced


Staked: 60.25pts
Returned: 88.68pts
Profit: 28.43pts
Yield: 47%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Thursday 10th September

Epsom
3.55
Sahaall 0.5pt win - unplaced

4.30
Kings Colour 0.5pt win - WON 7/2 (adv)

Doncaster
5.25
Ingleby Lady 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Kempton
6.35
Battlemaiden 1pt win - 2nd

Tipperary
6.55
Natural High 1pt win - WON 9/10


Staked: 41.75pts
Returned: 61.81pts
Profit: 20.06pts
Yield: 48%

Wednesday 9th September

Doncaster
2.30
Ransom Note 1pt win - unplaced

4.20
Russian Jar 1pt win - unplaced

Epsom
3.25
Funday 1pt win - WON 4/1

3.55
Mohathaab 0.5pt win - unplaced

Kempton
8.50
Ottoman Empire 0.5pt win - WON 6/4 (adv)


Staked: 38.25pts
Returned: 57.66pts
Profit: 19.41pts
Yield: 51%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Tuesday 8th September

Goodwood
2.35
Zahoo 1pt win - 3rd

4.20
Charger 0.5pt win - 4th

Lingfield
5.40
Satefisio 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

Staked: 34.25pts
Returned: 51.41pts
Profit: 17.16pts
Yield: 50%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

September Catch Up

I've been very busy over the past week or so and as a result I've not been able to keep up to date with my blog entries.

Will get up to date for September in this one post, it's been a promising start...


1st September
2.20 Ripon
Whirlijig 2pts win - 3rd

3.30 Ripon
Hippolytus 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Knight's Victory 0.5pt win - unplaced

4.20 Leicester
Dandy Man 2pts win - WON Evs (adv)


2nd September
3.50 Lingfield
Azharia 1pt E/W - unplaced

4.00 Brighton
Sunceleb 0.5pt win - unplaced

7.50 Kempton
Sunshine Always 1pt win - WON 7/4 (adv)
Songful 0.25pt E/W - unplaced


3rd September
3.05 Redcar
Tangerine Trees 1pt win - unplaced

4.35 Epsom
Air Maze 1pt win - 2nd

5.00 Salisbury
Triple Dream 2pts win - WON 9/4 (adv)

5.35 Salisbury
Covert Ambition 1pt win - unplaced

4th September
2.20 Lingfield
Rare Malt 1pt win - 2nd

4.50 Lingfield
Mutamaashi 1pt E/W - 2nd 9/2 (adv)

5.20 Lingfield
Brief Look 2pts win - WON 10/11 (adv)
Kansai Spirit 0.25pt win - unplaced

7.50 Kempton
Eolith 1pt win - WON 9/4 (adv)


5th September
3.10 Kempton
Fancy Footsteps 0.5pt win - 4th
Set The Trend 0.5pt win - unplaced

4.20 Kempton
Dhaawiah 1pt win - unplaced
Mohtashem 0.5pt win - unplaced

4.50 Kempton
Danse On Wood 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

5.25 Kempton
Tinaar 0.5pt E/W - WON 6/1 (adv)

6.20 Wolverhampton
Satwa Star 1.5pts win - 4th
Helieorbea 0.5pt win - unplaced

9.20 Wolverhampton
Cheers For Thea 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1 (adv)


6th September
3.45 York
Eton Rifles 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 13/2 (adv)

4.50 York
Without Prejudice 0.5pt E/W - WON 7/1 (adv)

5.20
Resentful Angel 0.5pt E/W - unplaced


7th September
3.00 Newcastle
Mayoman 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1 (adv)

4.20 Folkstone
Ordoney 1pt win - WON 2/1

5.00 Newcastle
The Quiet Genius 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 20/1 (adv)

Staked: 31.75pts
Returned: 47.41pts
Profit: 15.66pts
Yield: 49%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Saturday 22nd August

Bath
6.15
Carbon Hoofprint 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 9/2 (adv)

Chester
2.55
Sabotage 1pt win - 3rd

5.10
Zuwaar 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 5/1 (adv)

Ripon
4.35
Thebes 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

5.05
Off Chance 1pt win - WON 13/8
Fernando Torres 0.25pt win - 6th

Sandown
3.50
Kerrys Requiem 0.25pt E/W - 8th

Friday 21st August

Sandown
2.40
Chandika 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 10/1

York
4.40
Swingkeel 2pts win - WON 7/2 (adv)
Saga De Tercey 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 10/1

Salisbury
7.30
Aquisition 0.5pt win - WON 10/3

Thursday 20th August

York
2.15
Puff 0.5pt E/W - 4th

2.50
Acrostic 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 5/1
Loveloce 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.40
Lucky Leigh 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
La Zamora 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Favourite Girl 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Chepstow
5.30
Cadeaux Fax 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Wednesday 19th August

York
1.45
Whispering Gallery 0.5pt win - WON 5/1 (adv)
Coin Of The Realm 0.5pt win - unplaced
Dazzling Light 0.5pt win - unplaced

3.25
Precision Break 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

4.40
Silver Games 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1 (adv)

Tuesday 18th August

York
2.15
Elusive Pimpernel 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

Monday 17th August

Wolverhampton
2.45
Cheers For Thea 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 7/1 (adv)

3.15
Prescription 1.5pts win - 2nd

Kempton
3.30
Penitent 0.5pt win - 2nd

5.00
Fancy Footsteps 1pt win - WON 3/1 (adv)

Windsor
7.05
Desert Kiss 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Toolendithaar 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

8.05
Shared Moment 0.25pt E/W - 6th

Yarmouth
6.50
Gun For Sale 0.5pt E/W - 4th

7.50
Penolva 0.5pt win - 3rd

Sunday 16th August

Bath
4.00
Chatanoogachoochoo 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Hillside Lassie 0.5pt win - unplaced

5.00
Triple Dream 1pt win - WON 7/1 (adv) *

*5.95/1 after R4

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Saturday 15th August

Ripon
2.45
Cwm Rhondda 0.5pt win - 4th

Newmarket
5.10
Apotheosis 0.5pt E/W - 6th

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Friday 14th August

Nottingham
2.35
High Achieved 1pt win - 3rd

3.45
Burza 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Gaselee 0.25pt E/W - 4th

4.45
Twist Again 0.75pt E/W - WON 13/2 (adv)
The Quiet Genius 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Newcastle
2.45
Off Chance 1pt win - WON 5/2

Newbury
5.10
Candy Rose 0.5pt E/W - 6th

Newmarket
7.00
Seasonal Cross 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 11/1 (adv)
Devinius 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Catterick
8.20
Mayoman 0.25pt E/W - 4th

Thursday 13th August

Salisbury
2.30
Many A Slip 0.5pt E/W - WON 10/1 (adv)
City Of Rome 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Arkellion 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Sandown
3.25
Thief Of Time 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Wellington Square 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.00
Mezenah 2pts win - WON 4/5 (adv)

Newcastle
6.30
She's In The Money 0.5pt win - WON 4/1

8.30
Whipma Whopma Gate 0.25pt E/W - 6th

Chepstow
7.50
Rosie Two 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Two Turtle Doves 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Migilori 0.25pt E/W - unplaced



All bets proofed to Racing Post

Wednesday 12th August

Salisbury
4.05
Sterling Sound 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 40/1 (adv)

5.10
Akabar 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Yarmouth
4.30
Broughton's Silk 1pt win - 6th
Blue Turk 0.5pt win - 7th

Sandown
7.10
Militarist 0.5pt E/W - 4th

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Tuesday 11th August

Lingfield
4.00
Prescription 1pt win - WON 5/2 (adv)

5.00
Red Suede Shoes 0.5pt win - 3rd
Rockabout 0.5pt win - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Monday 10th August

Wolverhampton
3.30
Bahamian Music 1pt win - WON 11/4 (adv)

Thirsk
6.30
Funky Munky 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1 (adv)

8.30
Devil You Know 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Windsor
6.50
Clientele 1pt win - 7th
Aflaam 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 16/1

7.50
Beauchamp Xerxes 3pts win (MAX) - WON 11/8 (adv)

8.20
Bolanderi 0.5pt E/W - 4th 18/1 (adv)
Little Prudence 0.25pt E/W - 5th 20/1

Sunday 9th August

Windsor
2.30
Global Village 1pt win - 3rd

5.00
Chandika 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 11/2 (adv)

Redcar
3.10
Yashkur 0.5pt win - unplaced
Chichen Dawwe 0.5pt win - 7th

3.40
Ingleby Lady 2pts win - WON 7/4 (adv)

Leicester
4.50
Focail Eile 1pt win - WON 5/2

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Saturday 8th August

Haydock
2.10
Opus Maximus 1pt win - 3rd
Lowther 1pt win - unplaced

3.15
Sweet Lightning 1pt E/W - unplaced

Newmarket (July)
2.25
Whispering Gallery 1pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

3.35
Taqdeyr 1pt E/W - unplaced
Eastern Hills 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

5.10
Kindest 1pt win - 2nd
So Blissful 0.5pt win - 5th

Redcar
3.10
Without Prejudice 1pt win - 4th

Lingfield
8.10
Satwa Street 0.5pt E/W - 5th

Friday 7th August

Haydock
5.50
Beau Fighter 1pt win - 4th

Thursday 6th August

Haydock
3.40
Mull Of Killough 1pt win - 2nd

4.10
Wooshska 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Yarmouth
4.50
Twist Again 1pt win - 2nd
Galletto 1pt win - 3rd

Bath
8.05
Carbon Hoofprint 2pts win - WON 7/4

Sandown
7.55
Almuktahem 1pt win - 3rd

8.25
Bomber Brown 0.5pt win - 3rd
Kidlate 0.5pt win - 5th

Wednesday 5th August

Brighton
4.00
Uncle Fred 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Burns Night 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Newcastle
4.50
Carragold 0.5pt E/W - 5th

5.20
Leonid Glow 0.5pt win - 5th
Fortunate Flame 0.5pt win - unplaced

Kempton
6.05
Dance The Star 2pts win - 2nd

6.35
One Oi 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Candy Rose 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Yarmouth
5.50
Global Village 1pt win - 4th
Many Welcomes 0.5pt win - 2nd

7.20
Big Boom 1.5pt win - 4th

Tuesday 4th August

Catterick
3.20
Saga De Tercey 1.5pt win - WON 13/8
That'll Do Nicely 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

3.50
Chosen One 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Bedloe's Island 0.5pt win - 4th
Istiqdaam 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Monday 3rd August

Ripon
3.15
Crime Writer 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

4.45
Promise Maker 0.5pt E/W - 7th

Windsor
7.00
Espy 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 12/1
Triple Dream 0.5pt E/W - 4th 20/1

7.30
Prince Of Johanne 1pt win - WON 13/8

Carlisle
8.15
Cheers For Thea 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Gulnaz 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

8.45
Scotch And Soda 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Two Turtle Doves 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 16/1

Sunday 2nd August

Chester
4.05
Opus Maximus 0.5pt E/W - 4th

4.35
King Fingal 1pt win - 5th
I'm In The Pink 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 16/1 (adv)

Newbury
5.00
Air Maze 1pt win - 3rd
Bow To No One 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Saturday 1st August

Doncaster
2.05
Chris's Jem 0.5pt win - unplaced

Goodwood
3.40
Markab 0.25pt E/W - 4th 10/1 (adv)
Brave Prospector 0.25pt E/W - 7th 40/1 (adv)
Orpsie Boy 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Newmarket (July)
2.45
Invincible Isle 0.5pt E/W - 5th

3.20
Laaheb 1.5pt win - 2nd

Thirsk
3.30
Motashem 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Hamilton
7.40
Berridale 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

8.10
Evan 1pt win - 3rd

9.10
Hippolytus 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 13/2 (adv)

Lingfield
5.55
Resentful Angel 0.5pt win - 3rd 11/2
Cardinal 0.5pt win - 4th 9/2

Prophetable Statistics #2

#2 Mark Johnston - 3yo's stepped up markedly in trip

3yo's upped in trip by 3f or more in 2009...

• 46% (13/28) won
• 71% (20/28) placed at least
• £3152 profit to £100 level stakes
• 113% level stakes yield

Topolski WON 8/1
Straits of Hormuz WON 15/2
Holberg WON 7/1
Becausewecan WON 9/2
Perpetually WON 4/1
Rupestrian WON 11/4
Holberg WON 5/2
Parnethon WON 5/2
Fin Vin De Leu WON 9/4
Act Of Kalinisi WON 2/1
Rafaam WON 7/4
Yourgunnabelucky WON 11/10
Gilded Age WON 4/6
Smooth Sovereign 2nd 8/1
Quai D'Orsay 2nd 7/1 (beaten 0.5l)
Longboat Key 2nd 11/2 (btn nk)
Royal Society 2nd 4/1
Chilly Filly 2nd 11/4
Alanbrooke 2nd 6/4 (btn hd)
Fin Vin De Leu 3rd
Leulaheulahlay unplaced
Kimberley Downs unplaced
Sabotage unplaced
Tarzan unplaced
Whispering Gallery unplaced
Atabaas Allure unplaced
Step Fast unplaced
Kasaa Ed unplaced

Friday 31st July

Goodwood
3.25
Lovelace 0.25pt win - 5th
Acrostic 0.25pt win - 6th
Tartan Gigha 0.25pt win - unplaced

5.45
La Zamora 0.25pt win - 4th
Green Beret 0.25pt win - 3rd

Bath
7.40
Dangerous Midge 0.5pt win - 3rd
Voortrekker 0.5pt win - unplaced

8.15
Desert Kiss 0.5pt win - 2nd
So Blissful 0.25pt win - 7th

Newmarket
8.05
Without Prejudice 0.25pt win - WON 13/2
Aflaam 0.25pt win - 5th
Orlando's Tale 0.25pt win - unplaced

Thursday 30th July

Goodwood
4.35
Akhanenten 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 25/1 (adv)

Epsom
7.30
Polemica 0.25pt E/W - 7th

Wednesday 29th July

Goodwood
2.10
Swingkeel 1pt E/W - 3rd 7/1 (adv)
Always Bold 0.5pt E/W - 7th

2.45
Xtenstion 1pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)

4.00
Sabotage 0.25pt E/W - 8th

5.10
Alsace Lorraine 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

Redcar
5.00
King Pin 0.5pt E/W - 7th
Business Class 0.25pt E/W - 9th

5.35
Half A Crown 0.5pt E/W - 8th

Leicester
7.10
Cry Alot Boy 0.25pt E/W - WON 14/1 (adv)

8.15
Big Boom 1pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Tuesday 28th July

Goodwood
2.10
Sweet Lightning 1pt win - 2nd
Royal Destination 1pt win - 3rd
William Blake 0.5pt win - 4th

4.35
Precision Break 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 20/1

5.10
Wellington Square 1pt E/W - 7th

Beverley
5.30
Whipma Whopma Gate 1pt E/W - 8th
Bestowed 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Monday 27th July

Yarmouth
2.30
Right Rave 0.5pt E/W - WON 9/2 (adv)

5.00
Alvee 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

5.30
Whotsit 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 11/1

Southwell
5.15
Appelouse 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1

Windsor
6.40
Falcon Rock 0.5pt win - WON 7/2 (adv)
Apotheosis 0.5pt win - 3rd

Bets proofed to Racing Post

Sunday 26th July

Ascot
3.25
Reject 0.5pt E/W - 8th
New Leyf 0.25pt E/W - 5th

4.35
Sabotage 0.75pt E/W - 3rd 7/1 (adv)
Hevelius 0.75pt E/W - 8th

Carlisle
2.25
Cheyenne Red 1pt win - 2nd
Moneysupermarket 0.25pt E/W - 6th

3.35
Saga De Tercey 1pt win - 2nd

Bets proofed to Racing Post

Wokingham Working Out Well

It may seem I'm stating the obvious when suggesting the Wokingham is decent form - it's a Royal Ascot handicap after all. However even by it's own standards this year's race is working out extremely well.

Those involved have run 26 times since recording 6 wins, and 4 places - a decent return given the competitive nature of the races these sprinters contest.

1. High Standing - won G3 next time out
2. Asset - no runs
3. Rock Of Rochelle - 6th (of 7) in G3 next time out
4. Markab - no runs
5. Prohibit - no runs
6. Advanced - no runs
7. Striking Spirit - won C3 handicap NTO
8. Joseph Henry - beaten 1.75l in Premier handicap (Curragh) NTO, then placed in the Bunbury Cup
9. Orpsie Boy - good effort (9th) NTO in Bunbury Cup
10. Knot In Wood - won G3 NTO, then beaten 1l in C2 handicap, then won C2 handicap
11. Van Bossed - well beaten twice since
12. Jimmy Styles - unlucky in C2 handicap NTO
13. Tamagin - won C2 handicap since, then 2nd in C2 handicap
14. Brave Prospector - no runs
15. Osiris Way - well beaten NTO
16. Nota Bene - good effort (8th) in Bunbury Cup NTO, then won C3 conds stakes
17. Baby Strange - beaten NTO
18. Soap Wars - no runs
19. Beaver Patrol - beaten in Bunbury Cup NTO (50/1)
20. Pearly Way - well beaten NTO
21. Sohraab - Big run (close 4th) in Listed race NTO
22. Evens And Odds - no runs
23. Carcinetto - well beaten NTO (50/1)
24. Exclamation - no runs
25. Zidane - no runs
26. Genki - 2nd in C2 handicap NTO, then placed in Abu Dhabi International

Of the 17 that have run since, 11 have franked the form, 3 in pattern company.

With so many runners putting in monster performances in the race, especially those who raced on the near side or those drawn low who lost ground switching to the far side, the formline looks sure to throw up more winners and will be key in studying for the remaining big sprint handicaps of 2009.

Saturday 25th July

Ascot
3.15
Loch Linnhe 1pt E/W - unplaced

3.50
Redford 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 16/1 (adv ante-post)
Redford 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 12/1 (adv)
Taqdeyr 0.25pt E/W - 6th

5.35
Senses 0.5pt win - unplaced
Interdiamonds 0.5pt win - unplaced

Newcastle
4.45
Eton Rifles 1pt E/W - 2nd 4/1 (adv)

Lingfield
6.15
Warrior Conquest 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Salisbury
8.40
Santefisio 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 9/4

Friday 24th July

Ascot
3.50
Balaagha 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 12/1 (adv)

4.25
Hendersyde 1pt win - unplaced

5.00
William Blake 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 8/1 (adv)

Thirsk
3.05
Shared Moment 0.5pt E/W - 5th
Winrob 0.25pt E/W - WON 16/1 (adv)

Newmarket (July)
8.10
Kensington Oval 1.5pt win - 3rd

8.45
Indian Violet 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Dontuwishitwereso 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Thursday 23rd July

Bath
4.40
Rosie Two 0.5pt E/W - 6th
Tarqua 0.25pt E/W - 8th

5.10
Air Maze 1pt win - WON 7/4

Doncaster
6.10
Sunley Sovereign 0.5pt E/W - 4th 16/1 (adv)

7.50
Prescription 1pt win - 6th

8.25
Whirlijig 0.25pt E/W - 8th

Sandown
2.45
Chris's Jem 0.25pt E/W - 5th

Folkstone
6.25
Royal Bloom 1pt win - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Air Maze looked well treated and took the 5.10 at Bath after a lay-off. More success looks certain.

Prescription travelled well in the 7.50 at Doncaster before blowing up late on. This was her first start for some time and she was weak in the betting beforehand. She looked as though she needed the run and being obviously well treated looks sure to fare better in the future.

In the 8.25, Whirlijig showed enough ability to suggest he can be competitive in handicaps in the near future.

Chris's Jem was travelling well before she repeatedly denied a clear run in the 2.45 at Sandown - this run is best ignored.

Abu Dhabi International Stakes - Ascot 25th July

Unsurprisingly the Abu Dhabi International, formally the Tote/Totesport International Handicap, has been won by some decent in recent years. Five of the last ten winners won of a mark in the 100's and nine had either been contesting, or went on to contest Group races. It will be a simialr story for the winner of this year's renewal.

Of big three 7f handicaps this season (Victoria Cup, Buckingham Palace Stakes, Bunbury Cup) two have been a disappoinment. The Victoria Cup was of a relatively poor standard and the Bunbury Cup was ran at a farcical pace, as the result the form of both races is questionable - although seeing as the winners of both races (Swift Gift and Plum Pudding) are not taking their chance here that knowledge isn't as useful as it might have been.

Unlike the Bunbury Cup, where Plum Pudding was gifted an uncontested lead, a study of the projected pace suggests a decent gallop.

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With only 22 lining up and the stalls positioned in the centre it's probable the field will come down the middle in one group, negating any draw bias. This is good news for those drawn high as they may be disadvantaged if the field were to split.

With five prominent races, Signor Peltro, Crackdown, Dianes Choice, Taqdeyr and Thebes drawn in stalls 5 to 10 those drawn would enjoy a nice lead. There is just one prominent racer drawn high - Roaring Forte is stall 17. Horatio Carter in the 19 box likes to run up with the pace but will only track whatever pace is in front, he will not be forcing. We don't know a great deal about Captain Brilliance (15), he has been held up in the past but was fairly prominent when 2nd in the Bunbury, that maneuver may just have been Johnny Murtagh adapting to the slow pace.

Wherever they go the gallop is certain to be strong and those held up off the pace look sure to benefit.

One that fits that bill is the Michael Bell trained Redford. The 100 rated 4yo, already dabbling in pattern company, looks a typical winner of this event. 6th in this last year (as 3yo), he has been in typically consistent form this year. After a 6f pipe-opener in May he was a solid 3rd in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on ground possibly too quick. Then LTO he was 6th behind Plum Pudding (Captain Brilliance 2nd, Racer Forever 5th) in the Bunbury, again the ground would have been quicker than ideal and given the snail-like pace it was a monster effort to get so close given his running style.

I believe him to be equally as effective over 7f or a mile so the stiff 7f here, at a decent clip, should prove ideal. With ticks in plenty of boxes, plus the added bonus of many of the originally leading protagonists doubly entered here and Goodwood, I decided to go in early with Redford and advised him ante-post at 16/1 (E/W) last week.

With today's rain taking the sting out of the ground and with the draw confirming he will definitely be assured a lead I see no reason to change my mind. In fact I may go in again at the 12/1 with Stan James.

There are obvious dangers...

Captain Brilliance - another who would not have been suited tracking a slow pace at Newmarket but run well despite that. Very much an unknown quantity but I can't help but think he is priced up based on what Forgotten Voice (a stablemate with a similar profile), did earlier this season.

Roaring Forte - always been highly regarded, broke the juvenile record at Lingfield despite easing down. Has no experience of big fields and with the (albeit small) worry of front-running alone on the fair side, he is short enough.

Secret Society - progressing at a rate of knots and looks the pick of the 3yo's and those at the foot of the weights.

Racer Forever - closely weighted with Redford on Ascot and Newmarket form. Also hindered by how the race was run at Newmarket and if I'm right about Redford he should be too far behind.

Taqdeyr - Steadily improving and not disgraced when upped in class over 7f recently. Still weighted to be competitive. At 18/1 with Bet365 he is interesting me most as the potential 2nd selection.

Wednesday 22nd July

Lingfield
3.30
Bahamian Bliss 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.00
Summer Rose 0.5pt win - unplaced

Chepstow
4.20
First Swallow 1pt win - unplaced
Gioaccino 0.5pt win - unplaced

Sandown
6.00
Ensnare 0.5pt win - unplaced

7.40
Crime Writer 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Very poor racing. The biggest disappointment being First Swallow who was well beaten in the 4.20 at Catterick. Had previously shaped as if coming to hand so I was surprised to see connections apply the headgear for this. He clearly resented them and his progress has been temporarily halted.

Tuesday 21st July

Ffos Las
4.00
Charity Belle 1pt win - 2nd

4.30
Cape Melody 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 7/1 (adv)

5.30
Sir Boss 1pt win - WON 3/1 (adv)

Yarmouth
3.15
Carpe Marien 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Twist Again 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 22/1

5.45
Big Boom 1pt E/W - 2nd 11/2 (adv)

All bets proofed to Racing Post

21st July

I was fairly confident about the bets I had lined up for the new Ffos Las and Yarmouth.

The day started brightly enough with the ridiculously over priced (33/1 => 22/1) Twist Again getting a place in the 3.15 at Yarmouth. Was travelling well before Jimmy Quinn lost his position but ran on well into 3rd place after the race had been won. Must surely find a race soon.

Big Boom, a recent 50/1 2nd for us, looked to hold a major chance in the finale at Yarmouth. Well handicapped, well drawn on going that suited I couldn't see this horse being outside the 1-2-3-4 and he was E/W banker material. Could only finish 2nd however but another solid performance and is obviously well treated.

At Ffos Las, Charity Belle looked all over the winner in the 4.00 but was caught inside the last by Hollow Green. Given the weight she conceded to the winner she perhaps got there a little too soon under Jimmy Fortune. Any horse that can cruise three clear in the last should win, usually it's just a case of an ill-judged ride. Compensation awaits.

Sir Boss took the 5.30 very comfortably.

Monday 20th July

Ayr
2.30
Go Alone 1pt win - 4th

Yarmouth
3.45
Bonne 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.15
Songful 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Beverley
7.00
Moonage Daydream 0.25pt E/W - WON 12/1

8.30
Burns Night 2pts win - 4th

Windsor
8.50
Bolanderi 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 7/1

Sunday 19th July

Stratford
2.40
Bold Policy 0.25pt E/W - 6th
General Mayo 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Saturday 18th July

Newbury
2.50
Cosmopoliton 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
Ainia 0.5pt win - 6th

Newmarket (July)
3.05
Sunshine Always 1pt win - 2nd

Ripon
5.10
Cardinal 0.5pt win - 2nd
Minnola 0.5pt win - 3rd

Haydock
6.40
Lady Luachmhar 1.25pt win - WON Evs
Highkingofireland 0.25pt win - 4th

8.40
Dolly Penrose 1pt win - WON 11/4 (adv)
Princess Rainbow 0.5pt win - 3rd

9.10
Kindest 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)
Black River Falls 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Lingfield
6.55
Mr Rio 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Comsopoliton was game in victory in the 2.50 Newbury.

Sunshine Always travelled well in the 3.05 at Newmarket but again could only finish 2nd. He must find a handicap soon.

Cardinal looked an unlucky loser in the Ripon maiden handicap at 5.10. Forced to switch from an unfavourable low draw he finished with a flourish beaten a neck from what looked like an impossible position a furlong out.

Lady Luachmhar took advantate of a lenient handicap mark by taking the 6.40 at Haydock. There should be more to come from her.

I'd clearly been waiting a long time for Dolly Penrose to get her ground.

For the first time this season she had the soft going he needs and done the business. She doesn't find a great deal off the bridle so was value for more than the head winning margin.

Kindest won well in the 9.10 at Haydock. He travelled well and quickened well, there should be more to come.

Friday 17th July

Haydock
4.05
Medicean Man 0.5pt win - 3rd
Lochan Mor 0.5pt win - 4th

Newbury
3.45
Burza 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Saa'Ida 0.25pt E/W - 9th

5.30
Beauchamp Wonder 0.5pt win - 3rd

Newmarket (July)
8.50
Manere Bay 1pt win - 3rd
Elisiario 0.25pt win - unplaced

Pontefract
7.35
Northern Dare 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2

8.40
Whipma Whopma Gate 0.5pt win - 2nd

All bets proofed to Racing Post

At Haydock and Newbury, Medicean Man, Lochan Mor, Burza, Saa'Ida and Beachamp Wonder were all bogged down in the soft ground and are capable of better than their performances today.

Manere Bay travelled very well in the soft conditions at Newmarket in the 8.50 but could only finish 3rd. She looks a good thing off this mark in a fillies race.

Northern Dare loved the barely raceable conditions are Ponty. He will represent little value NTO, especially on quicker ground but is a force when the mud is flying.

Whipma Whopma Gate showed no ill-effects from the fall at Ayr earlier in the week and ran a blinder to finish 2nd in the maiden handicap.

Thursday 16th July

Hamilton
4.35
Tangerine Trees 1pt win - WON 11/4
Leonid Glow 0.5pt win - 3rd

Leicester
3.15
Orlando's Tale 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 10/1

4.25
Into The Light 0.5pt E/W - 6th

Bath
8.55
Espy 0.5pt E/W - 8th

Doncaster
8.40
Plaisterer 1pt E/W - WON 4/1

9.10
Countenence 0.25pt E/W - 7th

Epsom
7.45
Hallstatt 1pt win - 2nd
Funday 1pt win - 3rd

8.20
Crime Writer 0.5pt win - 3rd

8.50
Dream On Connie 0.25pt E/W - 6th

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Tangerine Trees took advantage of some lenient handicapping and completed a hat-trick in the 4.35 at Hamilton. Leonid Glow ran ok back in 3rd and is coming to hand.

Orlando's Tale was sickeningly (for me) beaten a nose on handicap debut in the 3.15 at Leicester. He should find a handicap soon.

Despite getting clobbered 5lb for the handicapper for a recent 2nd at Windsor, Plaisterer still looked extremely well treated and I was certain she would go well. She was ridden with supreme confidence by the under rated Jack Mitchell, showing decent toe coming from off the pace. This was a convincing win and despite a further 7lb hike for this win, I won't be betting against her in a hurry.

Impressive Lingfield maiden winner Funday but her handicap debut in the 7.45 at Epsom. She wasn't given the greatest ride in the world and is perhaps value for better than her 3rd position suggests.

Dream On Connie is coming to hand and ran well in the 8.50.

Espy ran better than the formline suggests in the 8.55 at Bath.

Wednesday 15th July

Catterick
3.30
Ingleby Lady 1pt win - 3rd

Kempton
7.50
Fancy Footsteps 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 6/1 (adv)

9.20
Global Village 1.5pts win - WON 7/2 (adv)
Resentful Angel 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 14/1

All bets proofed to Racing Post

The ground was perhaps against Ingleby Lady in the 3.30 at Catterick so her 3rd can be seen as a decent performance. She will win again on a quicker surface.

The final furlong of the 7.50 at Kempton was puzzling. Fancy Footsteps, who appears on the way back after a springtime setback, looked all over the winner but was a well beaten 3rd in the end. Assail ran out a ready winner after looking beat at the one pole. Fancy Footsteps drifted to the far rail which isn't ideal these days and this can be seen as a most encouraging performance. She clearly enjoys Kempton.

I backed Global Village for the 4th time in succession. Given the horse was unpenalised for a recent easy win and always well backed, there was no way his SP was going to be anywhere near the 7/2 early bird price. He was smashed down to a price more indicative of his chances (11/8) before recording another victory. A real odds compiler(s) error.

Resentful Angel ran very well back in 3rd in the first time headgear.

Tuesday 14th July

Beverley
2.15
Love In The West 0.5pt win - 2nd

3.15
Half A Crown 1pt E/W - 6th

5.15
Gaselee 1.5pt win - 2nd Evs (adv)

5.45
The Last Alzao 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
Mayoman 0.25pt E/W - 6th

Southwell
8.40
Uncle Brit 1pt win - WON 9/4

Yarmouth
7.20
Triple Dream 1pt win - unplaced

8.50
Sadaska 0.5pt win - 3rd

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Half A Crown is a horse I'm struggling to work out. Definitely well handicapped but there has been genuine excuses for defeats this season. Looked to hold a major chance in the 3.15 at Beverley, plum draw too, but despite travelling well could only finish 6th, narrowly out the frame.

Gaselee was disappointing on handicap debut in the 5.15. Probably didn't beat a great deal in a maiden previously but should find a handicap soon enough.

The Last Alzao completed a hat-trick and is clearly improving, there could be another win in this one as he took the amateur event with a bit in hand.

At Yarmouth, Triple Dream found the ground far too soft in the 7.20, the run should be completely ignored.

Sadaska ran ok in the 8.50, she can win a race but as with many of the yard's runners, the market will give and indication as to when.

Monday 13th July

Ayr
3.00
Whipma Whopma Gate 0.5pt E/W - BD

Windsor
7.30
April's Daughter 1pt win - 8th
Bestowed 0.25pt E/W - 9th

8.30
Lyceana 0.25pt E/W - 5th

Wolverhampton
6.50
Trade Centre 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

8.50
Aflaam 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

13th July

My only daytime bet was Whipma Whopma Gate at Ayr but she was brought down in the melee on the home turn. The remainder of the meeting was cancelled.

Bestowed ran better than the formline suggests in the Windsor seller 7.30. I can see the horse running a big race at a massive price somewhere soon.

Aflaam didn't like 7f on poly and run poorly in the 8.50 at Wolverhampton. He can do better when getting his toe in a little more, perhaps over further or a stiffer 7f.

Sunday 12th July

Southwell
4.30
Captain Crackers 1pt win - WON 7/4 (adv)

Saturday 11th July

Ascot
2.20
Shamali 1pt win - WON 7/2

Chester
2.55
Theocritus 0.25pt win - 4th
I'm In The Pink 0.25pt win - 8th

Hamilton
7.40
Atlantic Beach 0.25pt E/W - 6th

8.10
Cheyenne Red 1pt win - 3rd

8.45
King Pin 0.5pt win - 3rd

Nottingham
2.15
Gundaroo 0.5pt win - 2nd

Salisbury
8.30
Seventh Cavalry 0.25pt win - 3rd
Yvonne Evelyn 0.25pt win - unplaced

9.00
Ave 0.5pt win - WON 9/4

York
3.10
Sweet Lightning 0.25pt E/W - 6th

Friday 10th July

Chepstow
8.40
Thebes 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

9.10
Some Sunny Day 2pt win - 4th
Rockabout 0.5pt win - 7th

Chester
8.50
Hallstatt 1pt win - 2nd

Newbury
6.50
Love In The Park 1pt E/W - 3rd 6/1 (adv)

7.25
Burns Night 1.5pts win - 2nd

York
3.20
Without Prejudice 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Eastern Hills 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Newmarket (July)
1.30
Sovereign Remedy 1pt win - 3rd
Mohtashem 1pt win - 9th

2.35
Mutheeb 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 8/1 (adv)
Redford 0.5pt E/W - 6th

4.55
Pictorial 1pt win - unplaced
William Blake 0.25pt E/W - 6th

The final day of the July meeting.

Sovereign Remedy ran well without threatening in the opener and will surely find a handicap soon.

The Bunbury Cup was a farce. Plum Pudding was gifted a lead and was never headed. The 1-2-3-4 were front rank throughout. The performance of the race for me was undoubtedly Redford who put in a fantastic effort to get so close given his hold up style.

Main Aim and Fleeting Spirit ran brilliant races in the July Cup - as did Pacos Boy from an impossible position.

William Blake didn't see out 1m4f in the finale.

At Chepstow, Thebes finally got off the mark for this turf season - a well deserved victory.

Rockabout and Some Sunny Day run races full of promise in the 9.10 and will be getting their heads in front in handicap company soon.

Love In The Park run a solid race in the 6.50 at Newbury, he is holding his form well and looks sure to find at least another race.

Burns Night looked the winner in the 7.25 before being brushed aside by Credit Swap, he will fare better against his own age group.

Thursday 9th July

Doncaster
7.10
Interdiamonds 1pt win - 2nd

9.15
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 9/1 (adv)

Newmarket (July)
2.00
Arcano 0.5pt win - WON 9/4 (adv)

2.35
Changing The Guard 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Eastern Aria 0.25pt E/W - 9th
High Severa 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Warwick
3.30
Kristallo 0.25pt E/W - 7th

4.40
Secret Hero 0.5pt win - 5th

All bets proofed to Racing Post

A fairly quiet day considering the quality of the racing. I was very impressed with the Arcano and Showcasing when they filled the 1-2 spots in their Newbury maiden on debut.

Every now and again you see a maiden, usually at Newmarket or Newbury, where you know the 1-2 or 1-2-3 (rather than just the winner) are decent. I saw it with Spout/Dance A Dream (1994), Bahhare/Equal Rights (1996), Soviet Song/Airwave (2002 although at Kempton), Hala Bek/Dragon Dancer (2006), and Delegator/Palavicini/Four Winds (2008). I'm sure there were more (and I'm sure there have been one or two I got wrong) but these are the ones that stick in my head, where I thought the 1-2(-3) were potential pattern performers as soon as they crossed the line.

I formed the same opinion when I saw Arcano and Showcasing fight out the finish on their debut. With Showcasing and others winning maidens since and the 3rd (Party Doctor) finishing 3rd in the Chesham I could be on the right track. Therefore Arcano was a rare bet for me in a 2yo Group race. He travelled smoothly throughout the race and took the July Stakes without much fuss.

Eastern Aria and High Severra turned out to be outclassed in the 2.35 although Changing The Guard put in another consistent performance in 5th.

Green Beret was desperate in the 4.55, he is a smart 3yo.

At Doncaster, Interdiamonds ran a fine race in the 7.10 considering the ground went against him.

First Swallow is weighted to strike at any moment and was well supported before the 9.15. He was off the bridle early but kept on well to snatch a place. He will win soon over 6f.

Wednesday 8th July

Newmarket (July)
1.30
Photographic 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Mastoora 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Balaagha 0.5pt win - 2nd

2.00
Shamwari Lodge 0.5pt win - 8th
Rowayton 0.25pt E/W - 4th 25/1 (adv)
Akhenaten 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

2.35
Crown 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Raddy 'Ell Pauline 0.25pt E/W - 7th

5.30
Dingaan 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 25/1 (adv)
Admiral Dundas 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Catterick
3.30
Always Bold 0.5pt win - 2nd 4/1

4.05
Go Alone 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 8/1

Kempton
6.20
Global Village 0.75pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Another Try 0.25pt win - 3rd

6.50
Astarta 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 9/1

7.50
Pauls Pet 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

8.50
Isabelonabicycle 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Warrior Conquest 0.25pt win - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Drum Major 0.25pt win - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

The start of the Newmarket July meeting and an extremely busy day.

Balaagha has her quirks but is extremely talented (and well treated), she looked an unlucky 2nd in the 1.30 at Newmarket after a tardy start. Photographic ran a solid race in 5th.

Shamwari Lodge and Akhenaten (2.00) finished their races well from off the pace. The former could have been ridden more aggressively but the latter may do better back over further. Rowayton did very well to finish 3rd and his performance was most impressive. The race was ran at a decent clip and he fared best of those up with the pace. He doesn't usually front run so I was surprised to see Jimmy Quinn adopting those tactics here, especially considering there were plenty of others willing to do that job. This was the 2nd decent big field performance from Rowayton this season there could be a decent prize in him. Long term he could be the replacement for Mine, who was a very successful handicapper for the yard.

Crown and Raddy 'Ell Pauline ran ok at big prices in the Cherry Hinton but are short of this level.

Elusive Pimpernel was impressive in taking the 3.45 on his debut. An exciting prospect.

I was shocked to see Dingaan rag of the field for the 5.30 and believed his morning odds to be an insult. Although he hasn't won for some time he is in form and well handicapped. It was no surprise to see him well backed on-course and run well. Another decent effort in defeat, a case of running into a better treated rival unfortunately.

At Catterick, Always Bold looked an unlucky loser in the 3.30, just failing to get up from an impossible position, it wasn't Freddy Tickle's finest hour.

Go Alone kept on well for 2nd in the 4.05. Was no match for Real Diamond but again showed enough to suggest a handicap win is on the horizon.

Another decent Wednesday evening card at Kempton. Global Village looked well treated and was crying out for a return to 7f. The early bird price of 9/2 was huge and he was well backed down to 9/4 before taking the 6.20 with something in hand. Another Try ran well in 3rd, he is still on the up.

Astarta finished well after losing his place in the maiden at 6.50. Should find a race.

Isabelonabicycle (8.50) is a horse I've followed with success this season and I was pleased to see William Buick take over on her for the first time. David Probert threw the race away on her LTO but Buick made no such mistakes. She travelled well but had to be shaken up before putting in a storming run down the outside. Warrior Conquest ran a cracker in 2nd and will be winning soon. Drum Major continues to disappoint.

Tuesday 7th July

Pontefract
4.00
Red Jade 0.5pt win - 4th
Applaud 0.5pt win - 5th

4.30
Eton Rifles 1pt win - 3rd
Mark Of Meydan 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

5.30
Zouk 1pt win - 5th

Wolverhampton
4.15
Great Knight 1pt win - 5th

5.15
Diego Rivera 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Bonne 0.25pt E/W - 8th

Southwell
7.10
Carpe Diem 1pt win - 6th
Final Son 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

7.40
Terrymene Prince 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Swiss Art 2.5pts win - WON 5/4 (adv)

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Red Jade had everything in his favour for the 4.00 at Pontefract but could only finish 4th. He has been most disappointing this season. Applaud, one place behind, has also regressed.

Eton Rifles travelled like the winner in the 4.30 but it was a messy final 2f and he finished a close up 3rd. Compensation awaits. Draw and going were against Mark Of Meydan.

Zouk wasn't knocked about on handicap debut in the 5.30 and is capable of better.

Great Knight wasn't given a great ride in the 4.15 at Wolverhampton, there should be another race in him.

Carpe Diem disappointed once again in the 7.10 at Southwell. He is using up all his chances.

Swiss Art, like Diamond Laura earlier in the day at Wolverhamtpon, looked a good thing in an A/W claimer. He took the 7.40 in a battling finish.

Monday 6th July

Musselburgh
2.45
That'll Do Nicely 0.5pt win - 4th

4.45
Mr Lu 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Ripon
6.50
Terrymene Prince 0.25pt E/W - 7th 100/1
Love In The West 1pt win - WON 5/2 (adv)

7.20
Zelos Dream 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Tagula Pearl 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

8.20
Devil You Know 0.5pt E/W - 4th

Windsor
7.00
Sircozy 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Dream On Connie 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to the Racing Post

A poor set of cards. Love In The West took the weak Ripon claimer fairly comfortably. Terrymene Prince, advised at 100/1, ran better than the market suggested, he travelled well for a long way prior to weakening late on.

Both Zelos Dream and Tagula Pearl ran better then their form lines suggest in the 7.20. They could be of interest in nurseries later on.

Devil You Know travelled like the winner in the 8.20 but didn't pick up and could only finish 4th. There must surely be another race in this 3yo.

You needed binoculars to see Dream On Connie and Sircozy at the halfway point in the 7.00 at Windsor. Both put in decent late work though, especially the latte who, despite coming home in 8th, finished the race better than any. Both remain of interest.

Sunday 5th July

Ayr
2.10
Moneysupermarket 0.25pt E/W - 5th

2.40
Count Bertoni 0.5pt win - 5th

3.10
Ensnare 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
King Of Rhythm 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

3.40
Herrera 0.25pt E/W -6th
Merrion Tiger 0.25pt E/W - 4th

4.40
Royal Destination 0.5pt win - WON 3/1

July
Bets 33
Winners 12
S/R 36%
Staked 30pts
Returned 41.62pts
P/L 11.62pts
Yield 39%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

All bets came at Ayr where Moneysupermarket ran well to finish 5th at a big price in the 2.10.

Ensnare followed up on his recent A/W win under a 6lb penalty. He still looked well treated so it will be interesting to see what the handicapper does now.

Hererra and Merrion Tiger ran better than their finishing positions suggest in the 3.40.

Royal Destination looked fairly treated for his handicap debut and took the 4.40 with a bit in hand. There is more to come for sure.

Saturday 4th July

Beverley
4.25
Catch Key 0.25pt E/W - 4th

Haydock
3.30
Hevelius 0.5pt E/W - 6th

Leicester
3.35
Stravella 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 16/1 (adv)
Whooska 0.5pt win - 4th
Rio Guru o.25pt E/W - unplaced

Sandown
2.40
Acrostic 0.25pt E/W - WON 15/2 (adv)
Tanto Faz 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.55
Satefisio 1pt win - 3rd

5.30
Senses 0.5pt win - 4th

Carlisle
7.05
Eastern Hills 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 8/1 (adv)
Young Gladiator 0.25pt E/W - 6th

8.05
Lauras Lady 1.5pt win - 3rd

Nottingham
8.20
Liberally 0.25pt E/W - WON 7/1 (adv)
Gilded Age 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 10/1 (adv)

9.20
Focail Eile 0.25pt E/W - 4th 16/1

July
Bets 28
Winners 10
S/R 36%
Staked 26.5pts
Returned 36.62pts
P/L 10.12pts
Yield 38%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

4th July

From the list...
Acrostic WON 7/1
Liberally WON 4/1

Shane Kelly gave Hevelius a poor ride in the 3.30 Haydock. Without doubt there is a decent prize in him.

The 3.35 at Leicester was a decent fillies handicap. Whooska was a massive drifter but showed enough in 4th to suggest she can win more races, while Stravella made a bold attempt from the front, both look on marks within their capabilities.

Acrostic (2.40 Sandown) had travelled well without winning so far this season so even though C-P Lemaire appeared to be cruising approaching the last, I for one wasn't confident he'd pick up sufficiently. Thankfully Lemaire and Acrostic just did enough to get in front on the line. He obviously doesn't find as much as expected but on the plus side his style should keep him well handicapped. Tanto Faz found the ground too lively.

Santefisio (4.55) wasn't given a great ride by Jimmy Fortune. Held up way off the pace the ran of well making up many lenghts inside the final half furlong. Although not 100% straightforward he has much more ability than the handicapper currently suggests.

Senses wasn't suited by the lack of pace in the 5.30 and is better than he showed here.

At Nottingham both Liberally and Gilded Age were well backed before the 8.20. Both looked to be coming to hand so it was no surprise to see them fight out the finish. They can continue to be competitive over the coming weeks.

Focail Eile ran a fine race in the 9.20. He travelled as well as any and looked the likely winner at the one pole. He could only finish 4th come the finish but it was a much improved effort on LTO (his first start for sometime) and handicap success may not be too far away.

Friday 3rd July

Warwick
4.20
New Leyf 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Salisbury
7.35
Cill Rialaig 1pt win - 2nd

8.40
Marina Bay 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Azharia 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

9.10
Some Sunny Day 1pt win - 2nd
Seasonal Cross 0.5pt win - 3rd

Haydock
8.50
Silent Oasis 1pt win - 4th

9.20
One Scoop Or Two 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Beverley
8.30
Shaylee 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1 (adv)
Linby 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

July
Bets 18
Winners 7
S/R 39%
Staked 17pts
Returned 28.72pts
P/L 11.72pts
Yield 69%

At Beverley, Coltswold fulfilled the promise of his maiden win with a decent victory here, his first in handicap company.

Shaylee appreciated the step up in trip to score in the 8.30 off a lenient looking mark. Linby didn't show in behind.

In the 8.50 at Haydock, Silent Oasis was disappointing, even taking into consideration how quick she was forced to travel early on.

Cill Rialaig was narrowly denied in the 7.35 a Salisbury. She is improving and as long as the handicapper doesn't over react she will gain compensation soon.

Kuanyao was an impressive winner of the 8.40, there could be more to come. Marina Walk and Azharia didn't figure although the former showed there may be a race in her in time.

The 9.10 was most frustrating with both my selections losing out in the three-way photo. Some Sunny Day, who surprisingly allowed to go off 6/1, was beaten a short-head, wheres the well backed Seasonal Cross was a neck away in 3rd. Both will be winning soon, especially Some Sunny Day.

Covert Ambition did well to chase home stablemate Kirklees in the 4.00 at Sandown, he was held up off a modest pace.

Thursday 2nd July

Haydock
2.40
Lady Springbank 0.5pt win - 3rd

Epsom
6.20
Watson's Bay 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 6/1

7.25
Wellington Square 0.75pt win - 3rd
Ivory Lace 0.25pt win - 5th

Newbury
6.30
Arab League 0.5pt win - 2nd
Filun 0.5pt win - 8th

8.10
Gallagher 1pt win - WON 6/5

8.40
Arabian Pearl 0.25pt win - 4th
Shangani 0.25pt win - 5th
Cape Melody 0.25pt win 6th

Redcar
9.20
Floras Pride 0.25pt E/W - 5th

Yarmouth
4.30
Cwm Rhondda 0.75pt win - WON 13/8
Sawab 0.25pt win - 5th

July
Bets 11
Winners 6
S/R 55%
Staked 10pts
Returned 25.22pts
P/L 15.22pts
Yield 152%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Cwm Rhondda again showed her liking for the 10f's at Yarmouth, winning well under a confident ride. She has been a great horse to follow recently. Sawab ran ok in 5th.The evening cards were decent.

At Epsom Watson's Bay (6.20) ran his usal race. Very consistent but not one to be trusted inside the last.

In the 7.25, Wellington Square was travelling well until stumbling at a crucial time. He kept on well for 3rd and compensation awaits. Ivory Lace ran a solid but never threatening race in behind.

At Newbury the apprentice handicap at 6.30 was run at a stop-start pace. Filun disappointed badly, Arab League was arguably unlucky in 2nd.

Gallagher showed his class in the conditions stakes at 8.10. He got a nice lead from Plum Pudding and nothing else got into the race. It will be interesting to see how he is campaigned from now on.

Arabian Pearl, Cape Melody and Shangani all travelled well before failing to finish their races in the 8.40. All can win more races.

Floras Pride ran ok in the 9.20 at Redcar, a little respite from the handicapper will see her competitive in similar grades.