Tuesday 14th April

Yarmouth
3.50
Aakef 1pt win - WON 11/8
Bouvardia 1pt win - 2nd 4/1 (adv) => 85/40

4.20
Lucky Dancer 0.25pt E/W - 5th

4.50
Buddhist Monk 0.75pt E/W - 3rd 9/2 (adv)

The whole day revolved around the 3.50 for me, I made it a definite match between Aakef and Bouvardia and would've been amazed had the race not gone to one of the well handicapped pair.

Aakef was well regarded by the yard last year, was sent of as low as 7/1 for the Windsor Castle stakes at Royal Ascot despite losing on debut, however I thought he looked a little soft in a finish. That said, he looked potentially well treated (OR 81) and there was every reason to believe the horse's mind would be more on the job this term as he has since been gelded. Connections quoted last year that he can be handful at home, and it could be key to the horses' success this season. I'm certain a decision to 'cut' a horse that is highly regarded wasn't one made lightly and I'm sure connections are convinced he'll improve for it.

Everyone's favourite trainer, Henry Cecil, has started the season well and his Bouvardia looked equally well treated. She beat a big field here last season after two 2nds including one against the decent Snoqualmie Girl - form that made her OR of 83 look very lenient. Again I was prepared to forgive a poor handicap debut of last season as I feel the ground was too soft for her on that final 2yo start.

I decided to split my stakes evenly on the pair and I really did think that Bouvardia was tremendous value at 4/1 this morning. She was backed down to 85/40 on course but Aakef got first run on her and despite a lightning-fast finish she could not peg back the winner. As expected they filled the 1-2 spots but we got the consolation prize you could say. Both look set for a decent season though.

I felt Lucky Dancer could improve and what he has already shown given he was stepped up to 2m for the first time. David Elsworth does so well with staying handicappers and they fact he has persevered with this lowly rated gelded should not be ignored. He did indeed put up an improved display, taking it up over 2f from home but didn't quite get home, fading into 5th. I think perhaps Alan Munro took it up a little early, and/or he may be worth a try at 1m6f. I'm sure there is a race for him.

I spoke in greater detail on the "Story So Far" post regarding Buddhist Monk's seasonal debut at Doncaster. Although he appears to be well handicapped and possess plenty of ability he is far from straightforward, but given his running style and the 8 runners going to post, he looked a cast-iron E/W bet in the last today. Although visibility wasn't great due to the fog, he looked the likely winner around 2f out, but was a beaten 3rd when they came back into view after drifting to the far rail. He does need everything to drop right, possible over further, but there are races to be won with him and I will continue to monitor his entries.


Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.

Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 27
Winners 10
P/L +8.94
ROI 26%

National Hunt
Bets 2
Winners 2
P/L +5.3pts
ROI 265%

All-Weather
Bets 6
Winners 2
P/L +2.67pts
ROI 44%

All bets proofed to the Racing Post