This year I've noticed more than ever, the advantage of already having a run under the belt.
Many early 2yo's will bring a reputation to the course before their first run, a reputation that is often reflected in their price. Although reputations must be respected, when looking for winners it can pay to ignore well-fancied talking horses and side with those already with racecourse experience - especially when even those at bigger prices appear to run above market opinion.
When looking at all 2yo races so far this season when at least one of the field has already run, we see the experienced runners, at the very least, over performing (with regards to price).
Folkstone 31st March
1/10 runners had experience - 3rd 6/4
Leicester 2nd April
1/9 runners had experience - 1st 6/4
Bath 3rd April
3/11 runners had experience - 1st 15/8, 2nd 14/1, Unpl
Lingfield 4th April
2/7 runners had experience - 2nd 11/4, Unpl
Newcastle 4th April
3/10 runners had experience - 1st Evs, 2nd 4/1, 3rd 4/1
Wolverhampton 6th April
4/5 runners had experience - 1st 11/10, 2nd 3/1, Unpl, Unpl
Nottingham 8th April
4/8 runners with experience - 1st 11/10, 2nd 28/1, Unpl, Unpl
Folkstone 9th April
2/13 runners with experience - 3rd 25/1 (from 66/1), Unpl
OK, I know I'm stating the bleeding obvious here, but I think the benefit of experience is even greater than our memories lead us to believe - the results above clearly suggest so. With regards to their apparent chances in the market they could hardly fared any better.
There are many angles here; dutch betting when multiple runners have experience, E/W betting alongside win singles for the bigger priced selections, even F/C combinations would've seen a tasty profit.
The key issue is value, at a time where many fancied horses are first time out, it may pay to side with the value of experience.
So think carefully when listening to those early season whispers and so-called reputations. After all, talk is cheap but money buys the beer.
Be lucky.
No comments:
Post a Comment