Need to be Brave to Back a Craven Fave

The Craven hasn't been a great race for punters, despite many horses lining up with huge reputations. The majority have simply underperformed on the day. Over the past 21 runnings, despite 15 favs starting at 2/1 or shorter, just five have succeeded.

Many bubbles have been burst in this...

1988 Warning 4/7 - lost
1990 Mukddaam 6/4 - lost
1991 Desert Sun 6/5 - lost
1992 Forest Tiger 11/4 - lost
1993 Barathea 10/11 - lost
1994 Green Green Desert 11/4 - lost
1995 Nwaamis 8/11 - lost
1996 Alhaarth 1/2 - lost
1999 Mujahid 2/5 - lost
2000 Rossini 7/4 - lost
2001 Nayef 4/6 - lost
2003 Joint-favs 6/5 (coupled) - lost
2004 Three Valleys 2/1 - lost
2005 Etlaala 2/1 - lost
2006 City Of Troy 8/11 - lost
2008 Raven's Pass 11/8 - lost

Just one odds-on shot (from 8) has won, Xaar (by a head) at 8/11 in 1997.

I'm never a fan of 'fate of favourite' statistics, I don't believe they are logical, however I believe with the Craven there is logic behind the stat. Being classic types the horses involved obviously have future dates in mind and no trainer wants to lose the 2000 Guineas in mid-April. They won't be over done at home, connections will not want them to peak in this, they want something left in the tank for the big day(s) ahead. Raven's Pass (2008), King's Best, (2000), Nayef (2001), Dr Devious (1992) improved drastically on what they showed in the Craven, all went on to Group 1 success after defeats in this race.

I'm actually fan of this year's favourite, Delegator, but couldn't entertain the idea of backing him today at odds-on, in what could also turn out to be a muddling affair. In a race where a defeat would mean little to a horses long term possibilities, is this the best opportunity to back this particular horse? Or the best opportunity to back any horse at a short price?

I'm not sure it is.

Be lucky.