Monday, 13 April 2009

Monday 13th April

Warwick
2.20
Baby Rock 0.5pt E/W - unpl

Redcar
2.35
Miss Keck 0.5pt win - 5th
Amir Pasha 0.25pt E/W - unpl

3.45
Kipchak 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Top Tribute 0.25pt win - 7th
Shadowtime 0.25pt win - unpl

Yarmouth
2.50
Desert Kiss 0.5pt win - 4th

4.00
Style Icon 0.5pt win - 6th
Zeffirelli 0.5pt win - 5th
Truly Devine 0.5pt win - unpl

5.45
Annabelle's Charm 1pt win - 3rd

A typical Bank Holiday minefield for punters; horses showing massively improved form to land gambles, strange betting patterns throughout the day and numerous poor rides - I'd be writing for a week if I went into the details of every tenderly handed horse I saw today. Under the circumstances I pleased to come out the day relatively unscathed (-1pt).

At Warwick, Baby Rock's run in the 2.20 can be totally ignored, he suffered an unclear passage throughout and wasn't knocked about.

Miss Keck looked an unlucky loser in the 2.35 at Redcar, she was short of room at a pivotal time and the race was over by the time she got into the clear. She finished well to finish 5th and looks sure to find a staying handicap soon. Kipchak had a decent A/W season and ran well for new connections on his last start, when carrying a penalty over an inadequate 6f. He looked sure to go well today, back over 7f and back running off his OR of 67 - for these reasons he was my joint-strongest bet of the day. The victory never looked in doubt and he won well from the front. Top Tribute wasn't given a hard time back in 7th and should find a race before long.

Yarmouth is probably my least favourite track, I feel it's extremely difficult to find winners there and today proved no exception. Negotiation took the first for John Gosden, he looks sure to progress and should follow up in handicap company. The market told the story in the 4.00, there was money for just two horses (Seneschal and Elusive Hawk), and they filled the 1-2 spots, pulling clear of the 3rd. Many 'negatives' on the exchanges for plenty of their rivals, none more so that 3rd fav Truly Devine, who was 7/1 on-course while simultaneously trading at 20/1 on the machine - he was last throughout. Annabelle's Charm looked a well handicapped filly given her maiden form on the A/W, she disappointed on her handicap debut two months ago after drifting badly in the market so she was far from bombproof. Jamie Spencer failed to keep her straight when making their challenge and as a result couldn't muster a serious challenge. She probably isn't totally straightforward but she has ability and will benefit from stronger handling.

I've been as 'diplomatic' as I can be with these reviews.

Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record.

Flat (turf) 2009

Bets 24

Winners 8

P/L +9.13pts

ROI 30%

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National Hunt

Bets 2

Winners 2

P/L +5.3pts

ROI 265%

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All-Weather

Bets 6

Winners 2

P/L +2.67pts

ROI 44%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

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