Brighton
3.30
Lady Florence 0.5pt win - WON 7/2 (adv)
5.00
Rocket Rob 1pt win - 3rd
5.30
Espy 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 4/1
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
Despite the firm going it paid to come across to the near side rail at Brighton, the result of recent watering.
Lady Florence had ran into two well handicapped types in Mountain Cat and Hypnotic recently so looked to hold massive form chances in this seller. She had yet to win a race but she had never contested a race this weak when in form and she was worth chancing. She ran out a comfortable 3l winner.
Drifting off the rail cost Rocket Rob any chance he held in the 5.00.
Espy travelled well enough in the 5.30 but was no match for the front two come the final furlong. He doesn't look the same horse this season but his last two efforts have been encouraging
Despite looking in trouble at halfway, Aldaado ran out an easy winner of the 3.15 at Hamilton. He is progressing nicely and there should be more to come when upped in trip.
A combination of getting hampered and inexperience cost Call To Arms making a winning debut in the 7.00 at Thirsk. He is nailed on for a maiden.
Tuesday, 30 June 2009
Monday 29th June
Wolverhampton
2.30
Two Turtle Doves 0.25pt E/W - 6th
5.00
Capucci 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 10/1 (adv)
Pontefract
4.15
Sadaska 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
The Quiet Genius 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
5.45
Kipchak 0.5pt win - unplaced
Windsor
8.10
Rio Guru 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Blow Hole 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
8.40
Course De Diamante 0.5pt win - 5th
9.10
Tignello 0.5pt win - 5th
Pauls Pet 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 50/1 (adv)
Musselburgh
8.25
Solas Alainn 1.5pt win - 3rd
Mooted 0.5pt win - WON 3/1 (adv)
8.55
Carpe Diem 1pt win - 7th
Al Wasef 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
9.25
Street Spirit 0.25pt E/W - 7th
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
A extremely busy day.
I feared the 6f was too sharp for Two Turtles Doves in the 2.30 and that did turn out to be the case. It was a fair performance under the circumstances, Seb Sanders was motionless once it was clear she couldn't win. A similar race over further with a couple of pound off for this run (hopefully) could see her go well at a price next time out.
Capucci looked all over the winner in the 5.00 but wouldn't go by Major Phil. Well handicapped but not the toughest in a finish. Definitely an "in-running horse".
Sadaska (4.15 Pontefract) was very weak in the market prior to her handicap debut which is a big negative given her stable. She showed some ability though and I will keep my eye on her over this trip and further.
Kipchak went off too quick in the 5.45
On to Windsor where Racing Hero was a ridiculously short price for the 8.10. I looked elsewhere for value with Rio Guru and Blow Hole. Rio Guru ran her usual solid race (2nd) but was no match for Resurge. Blow Hole was beaten a long way, he left the Noseda yard for just 9,000gns late last year and has clearly lost some ability.
Course De Diamante was disappointing on her handicap debut in the 8.40. She still looks plenty green though and I wouldn't write her off just yet.
Tignello was again a beaten fav in the 9.10, I have no idea what happened inside the last furlong when he was heavily eased by Ryan Moore. He is fast running out of chances. Pauls Pet looked to be slowly coming to hand and looked ridiculously over priced at 50/1 (early birds). He kept on nicely for 3rd to land another juicy E/W bet.
The 8.25 at Musselburgh looked a match between Solas Alainn and Mooted. Neither are totally straightforward but both looked a cut above their rivals here. Solas Alainn took them along before weakening and it was Mooted that come there travelling two out and this time he went through with his effort to score well.
Carpe Diem was give little chance to show in the 8.55, held up way off the pace.
Street Spirit ran ok in the 9.25 he has shown enough to suggest he can find a small race. Trade Price and George Adamson are the others to take from the race.
2.30
Two Turtle Doves 0.25pt E/W - 6th
5.00
Capucci 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 10/1 (adv)
Pontefract
4.15
Sadaska 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
The Quiet Genius 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
5.45
Kipchak 0.5pt win - unplaced
Windsor
8.10
Rio Guru 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Blow Hole 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
8.40
Course De Diamante 0.5pt win - 5th
9.10
Tignello 0.5pt win - 5th
Pauls Pet 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 50/1 (adv)
Musselburgh
8.25
Solas Alainn 1.5pt win - 3rd
Mooted 0.5pt win - WON 3/1 (adv)
8.55
Carpe Diem 1pt win - 7th
Al Wasef 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
9.25
Street Spirit 0.25pt E/W - 7th
All bets proofed to the Racing Post.
A extremely busy day.
I feared the 6f was too sharp for Two Turtles Doves in the 2.30 and that did turn out to be the case. It was a fair performance under the circumstances, Seb Sanders was motionless once it was clear she couldn't win. A similar race over further with a couple of pound off for this run (hopefully) could see her go well at a price next time out.
Capucci looked all over the winner in the 5.00 but wouldn't go by Major Phil. Well handicapped but not the toughest in a finish. Definitely an "in-running horse".
Sadaska (4.15 Pontefract) was very weak in the market prior to her handicap debut which is a big negative given her stable. She showed some ability though and I will keep my eye on her over this trip and further.
Kipchak went off too quick in the 5.45
On to Windsor where Racing Hero was a ridiculously short price for the 8.10. I looked elsewhere for value with Rio Guru and Blow Hole. Rio Guru ran her usual solid race (2nd) but was no match for Resurge. Blow Hole was beaten a long way, he left the Noseda yard for just 9,000gns late last year and has clearly lost some ability.
Course De Diamante was disappointing on her handicap debut in the 8.40. She still looks plenty green though and I wouldn't write her off just yet.
Tignello was again a beaten fav in the 9.10, I have no idea what happened inside the last furlong when he was heavily eased by Ryan Moore. He is fast running out of chances. Pauls Pet looked to be slowly coming to hand and looked ridiculously over priced at 50/1 (early birds). He kept on nicely for 3rd to land another juicy E/W bet.
The 8.25 at Musselburgh looked a match between Solas Alainn and Mooted. Neither are totally straightforward but both looked a cut above their rivals here. Solas Alainn took them along before weakening and it was Mooted that come there travelling two out and this time he went through with his effort to score well.
Carpe Diem was give little chance to show in the 8.55, held up way off the pace.
Street Spirit ran ok in the 9.25 he has shown enough to suggest he can find a small race. Trade Price and George Adamson are the others to take from the race.
Monday, 29 June 2009
Prophetable Statistics #1
#1 Stuart Williams - "fancied" 3yo handicap debutants
Of those starting at 10/1 or lower since 2006...
In recent season the shrewd yard have been sent a lot more 2/3yos and have enjoyed much success with them.
The findings have proved what I have always believed, Stuart Williams is a decent trainer and if a horse shows any ability he will find a race for it. Many of those beaten on handicap bow went on to score on the 2nd or 3rd handicap start.
The market is key with this yard, although one or two handicap debutants have run well at big prices, those that figure prominently in the market fair a great deal better. Obviously this yard know exactly where they are with their 3yos.
However many punters and odds compilers try to second-guess this yard and I believe that a few gambles on the yard's horses have nothing to do with connections at all.
"Fancied" handicap debutants however do seem to run consistently well.
One 3yo handicap debutant today: Sadaska, in the 4.15 at Pontefract who is currently best priced 7/1.
She looks to hold a major form chance also. Looks well treated on her debut effort, and with improvement for this longer trip expected, could be a blot on the handicap.
She is by Fantastic Light, out of a mare that has produced
Behego - six time winner from 1m6f to 2m3f
Hawbridge King - winner from 1m6f to 2m4f
Strobe (full brother) - five time winner from 1m4f to 2m4f
Today she steps up from 7f (twice) and 10f (LTO) to the stiff 1m4f at Pontefract.
If Sadaska doesn't continue the trend today you will get it all back very soon over further.
Of those starting at 10/1 or lower since 2006...
- 29% (6/21) have won
- 62% (13/21) have placed at least
- £1235 profit to £100 level stakes - 59% yield
In recent season the shrewd yard have been sent a lot more 2/3yos and have enjoyed much success with them.
The findings have proved what I have always believed, Stuart Williams is a decent trainer and if a horse shows any ability he will find a race for it. Many of those beaten on handicap bow went on to score on the 2nd or 3rd handicap start.
The market is key with this yard, although one or two handicap debutants have run well at big prices, those that figure prominently in the market fair a great deal better. Obviously this yard know exactly where they are with their 3yos.
However many punters and odds compilers try to second-guess this yard and I believe that a few gambles on the yard's horses have nothing to do with connections at all.
"Fancied" handicap debutants however do seem to run consistently well.
One 3yo handicap debutant today: Sadaska, in the 4.15 at Pontefract who is currently best priced 7/1.
She looks to hold a major form chance also. Looks well treated on her debut effort, and with improvement for this longer trip expected, could be a blot on the handicap.
She is by Fantastic Light, out of a mare that has produced
Behego - six time winner from 1m6f to 2m3f
Hawbridge King - winner from 1m6f to 2m4f
Strobe (full brother) - five time winner from 1m4f to 2m4f
Today she steps up from 7f (twice) and 10f (LTO) to the stiff 1m4f at Pontefract.
If Sadaska doesn't continue the trend today you will get it all back very soon over further.
Sunday 28th June
Salisbury
2.35
Seventh Cavalry 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 14/1
5.20
Whotsit 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 12/1 (adv)
Windsor
4.35
El Loco Uno 0.5pt win - unplaced
Curragh
4.20
Rockhampton 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Drumbeat 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
All bets proofed to Racing Post.
Regardless of the result at Epsom, Team O'Brien got their tactics wrong. It was a totally different story here though. Pace/tactics were spot on and it worked perfectly for Fame And Glory who ran out an easy 5l winner.
Although Seventh Cavalry has yet to get his head in front (beaten in 11 maidens), he is fairly consistent so the handicapper has been pretty fair dropping him 20lbs over the past 12 months. If his mark keeps slipping he will eventually find a race, I thought it could be this one (2.35). He ran well and not for the first time in his career looked the winner. He couldn't quite get to Merrymadcap though but at 14/1 he was a decent E/W bet.
Alqaffay was a fair 2nd in the maiden at 4.45. The fact that his powerful stable have persevered with him should not be ignored. Success in handicaps awaits.
I took 33/1 about Whotsit LTO (backed down to 10/1) but the horse was given no chance due to a poor ride from his inexperienced pilot. I felt he would've been in the shake up with a clear run so off a lower mark here he could not be ignored. Again well backed, 12/1 (morning) to 5/1 (SP), he looked all over the winner (1/16 in running), this time getting a positive ride from Laura Pike, but was cruelly collared late on.
2.35
Seventh Cavalry 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 14/1
5.20
Whotsit 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 12/1 (adv)
Windsor
4.35
El Loco Uno 0.5pt win - unplaced
Curragh
4.20
Rockhampton 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Drumbeat 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
All bets proofed to Racing Post.
Regardless of the result at Epsom, Team O'Brien got their tactics wrong. It was a totally different story here though. Pace/tactics were spot on and it worked perfectly for Fame And Glory who ran out an easy 5l winner.
Although Seventh Cavalry has yet to get his head in front (beaten in 11 maidens), he is fairly consistent so the handicapper has been pretty fair dropping him 20lbs over the past 12 months. If his mark keeps slipping he will eventually find a race, I thought it could be this one (2.35). He ran well and not for the first time in his career looked the winner. He couldn't quite get to Merrymadcap though but at 14/1 he was a decent E/W bet.
Alqaffay was a fair 2nd in the maiden at 4.45. The fact that his powerful stable have persevered with him should not be ignored. Success in handicaps awaits.
I took 33/1 about Whotsit LTO (backed down to 10/1) but the horse was given no chance due to a poor ride from his inexperienced pilot. I felt he would've been in the shake up with a clear run so off a lower mark here he could not be ignored. Again well backed, 12/1 (morning) to 5/1 (SP), he looked all over the winner (1/16 in running), this time getting a positive ride from Laura Pike, but was cruelly collared late on.
Sunday, 28 June 2009
Saturday 27th June
Newcastle
3.10
Buddhist Monk 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
3.45
Boy Blue 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 20/1 (adv)
Windsor
4.40
Divisnky 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 14/1 (adv)
Bountiful Bay 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
5.10
Kindest 0.5pt win - 3rd
Candy Ride 0.5pt win - 2nd
Newmarket
5.05
Another Try 0.25pt E/W - 6th
Doncaster
8.10
Wild Rhubarb 0.5pt win - 3rd
8.45
Fancy Footsteps 0.25pt win - 3rd 12/1 (adv)
Laura's Lady 0.25pt win - 4th
Milton Of Campsie 0.25pt E/W - 5th
All bets proofed to Racing Post.
In the 2.40 at Chester, Act Of Kalinisi just failed to get up on handicap debut. It was a fine effort from off the pace around here and compensation awaits.
In the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, Look Here found 10f too sharp at this level. She is a genuine G1 horse, but at 1m4f.
Tony Culhane stole the Northumerland Plate off 16 brain-dead jockeys. Plenty in behind are worth another chance, notebly Hendersyde and Electrolyser. Meethaaq (tailed off) was coltish for the 3rd time this season - he needs a trip to the vets.
Boy Blue (3.45) was mentioned on this blog back in April when he took my eye behind Billy Dane. He put in another solid performance after that before disappointing around an unsuitable Chester. Back on a course that suits and off a 1lb lower mark I though he held every chance here. I was amazed to see him priced up 20/1 outsider of the field in the morning and with 9 going to post he looked a fair E/W selection. He battled all the way to the line but was beaten less than a length into 3rd place.
The topically named Sunshine Always just failed in the 5.25 and must find a handicap soon.
At Newmarket, Another Try's winning run came too an end, he didn't really see out this 7f trip.
Dvinsky ran a solid race in the 4.40 at Windsor, he is in form at the moment and looks well treated on the turf.
Candy Ride and Kindest were a little bit disappointing (2nd & 5th) in the 5.10 but are worth another chance in their own age group.
Fancy Footsteps put in a more encouraging effort in the 8.45 at Doncaster. She is on the way back. Laura's Lady ran ok and Milton Of Campsie ran well for a long way at a price.
3.10
Buddhist Monk 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
3.45
Boy Blue 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 20/1 (adv)
Windsor
4.40
Divisnky 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 14/1 (adv)
Bountiful Bay 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
5.10
Kindest 0.5pt win - 3rd
Candy Ride 0.5pt win - 2nd
Newmarket
5.05
Another Try 0.25pt E/W - 6th
Doncaster
8.10
Wild Rhubarb 0.5pt win - 3rd
8.45
Fancy Footsteps 0.25pt win - 3rd 12/1 (adv)
Laura's Lady 0.25pt win - 4th
Milton Of Campsie 0.25pt E/W - 5th
All bets proofed to Racing Post.
In the 2.40 at Chester, Act Of Kalinisi just failed to get up on handicap debut. It was a fine effort from off the pace around here and compensation awaits.
In the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, Look Here found 10f too sharp at this level. She is a genuine G1 horse, but at 1m4f.
Tony Culhane stole the Northumerland Plate off 16 brain-dead jockeys. Plenty in behind are worth another chance, notebly Hendersyde and Electrolyser. Meethaaq (tailed off) was coltish for the 3rd time this season - he needs a trip to the vets.
Boy Blue (3.45) was mentioned on this blog back in April when he took my eye behind Billy Dane. He put in another solid performance after that before disappointing around an unsuitable Chester. Back on a course that suits and off a 1lb lower mark I though he held every chance here. I was amazed to see him priced up 20/1 outsider of the field in the morning and with 9 going to post he looked a fair E/W selection. He battled all the way to the line but was beaten less than a length into 3rd place.
The topically named Sunshine Always just failed in the 5.25 and must find a handicap soon.
At Newmarket, Another Try's winning run came too an end, he didn't really see out this 7f trip.
Dvinsky ran a solid race in the 4.40 at Windsor, he is in form at the moment and looks well treated on the turf.
Candy Ride and Kindest were a little bit disappointing (2nd & 5th) in the 5.10 but are worth another chance in their own age group.
Fancy Footsteps put in a more encouraging effort in the 8.45 at Doncaster. She is on the way back. Laura's Lady ran ok and Milton Of Campsie ran well for a long way at a price.
Saturday, 27 June 2009
Friday 26th June
Doncaster
3.25
Without Prejudice 0.5pt win - 3rd
The Galloping Shoe 0.5pt win - 4th
5.05
Unbelievable Jeff 0.5pt win - 4th
She's In The Money 0.5pt win - 6th
Volito 0.5pt win - 7th
Newcastle
7.25
Cheveton 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Hamish McGonagall 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1 (adv)
8.55
Mark Of Meydan 1pt E/W - WON 12/1 (adv)
Without Prejudice and The Galloping Shoe ran solid races without threatening when 3rd and 4th in the 3.25 at Doncaster. I still think there are races to be won with this pair and I'm not losing faith yet.
I thought the The Scorching Wind was too short for the 5.05 but he took the race with relative east. Unbelievable Jeff ran ok from out the weights and I would imagine he will find a race when allowed to run off his true mark. She's In The Money dropped away quickly on handicap debut and Volito, who has been disappointing since winning, was well back in 7th.
Mark Johnston had a 1-2 in the 7.45 at Chester. Alpha Glen looks a decent progressive type and Easter Aria continues to hold her form.
They split into three groups for the Gosforth Park Sprint at Newcastle. As expected Hamish McGonagall ran his best race of the season, he will be winning again soon. Cheveton put in a rare unplaced effort but he stayed far side, the group that was most disadvantaged. Indian Trail probably deserves plenty of credit for "winning" the far side and finishing 5th overall.
The confident NAP of the day, Mark Of Meydan, was a horse I knew was about to catch fire. Was badly hampered when carrying the money at Ponty LTO but made no mistakes in the 8.55 when finally allowed to show his form. At 12/1 (morning and opening show) he was possibly one of the best value bets this season. I believe there is more to come.
3.25
Without Prejudice 0.5pt win - 3rd
The Galloping Shoe 0.5pt win - 4th
5.05
Unbelievable Jeff 0.5pt win - 4th
She's In The Money 0.5pt win - 6th
Volito 0.5pt win - 7th
Newcastle
7.25
Cheveton 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Hamish McGonagall 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1 (adv)
8.55
Mark Of Meydan 1pt E/W - WON 12/1 (adv)
Without Prejudice and The Galloping Shoe ran solid races without threatening when 3rd and 4th in the 3.25 at Doncaster. I still think there are races to be won with this pair and I'm not losing faith yet.
I thought the The Scorching Wind was too short for the 5.05 but he took the race with relative east. Unbelievable Jeff ran ok from out the weights and I would imagine he will find a race when allowed to run off his true mark. She's In The Money dropped away quickly on handicap debut and Volito, who has been disappointing since winning, was well back in 7th.
Mark Johnston had a 1-2 in the 7.45 at Chester. Alpha Glen looks a decent progressive type and Easter Aria continues to hold her form.
They split into three groups for the Gosforth Park Sprint at Newcastle. As expected Hamish McGonagall ran his best race of the season, he will be winning again soon. Cheveton put in a rare unplaced effort but he stayed far side, the group that was most disadvantaged. Indian Trail probably deserves plenty of credit for "winning" the far side and finishing 5th overall.
The confident NAP of the day, Mark Of Meydan, was a horse I knew was about to catch fire. Was badly hampered when carrying the money at Ponty LTO but made no mistakes in the 8.55 when finally allowed to show his form. At 12/1 (morning and opening show) he was possibly one of the best value bets this season. I believe there is more to come.
Thursday 25th June
Kempton
3.40
Set The Trend 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 11/2 (adv)
4.40
Ostaadi 1pt win - 2nd
5.40
Tender Charm 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Newcastle
5.30
Go Alone 0.5pt E/W - 6th
Seldom 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Set The Trend ran another solid race, this time when up in the grade in the 3.40 at Kempton. The front running Cloudy Start was gifted the race so Set The Trend deserves plenty of credit for pulling clear of the 3rd. He is undoubtedly better than his handicap rating, although the handicapper may act after this.
Ostaadi was 2nd again in the 4.40. I'm not sure if this horse is quirky or just green, I will continue to monitor as I have the feeling he has a big performance in him when it all clicks.
Tender Charm didn't show in the 5.40.
Go Alone was slightly disappointing on his handicap debut in the 5.30 at Newcastle, but he was positioned wide after losing his pitch and is worth another chance.
3.40
Set The Trend 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 11/2 (adv)
4.40
Ostaadi 1pt win - 2nd
5.40
Tender Charm 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Newcastle
5.30
Go Alone 0.5pt E/W - 6th
Seldom 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Set The Trend ran another solid race, this time when up in the grade in the 3.40 at Kempton. The front running Cloudy Start was gifted the race so Set The Trend deserves plenty of credit for pulling clear of the 3rd. He is undoubtedly better than his handicap rating, although the handicapper may act after this.
Ostaadi was 2nd again in the 4.40. I'm not sure if this horse is quirky or just green, I will continue to monitor as I have the feeling he has a big performance in him when it all clicks.
Tender Charm didn't show in the 5.40.
Go Alone was slightly disappointing on his handicap debut in the 5.30 at Newcastle, but he was positioned wide after losing his pitch and is worth another chance.
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