Originally in Raceform Update 2nd December 2009...
It was fantastic to witness one of the great weight carrying performances on Saturday when Denman powered to his 2nd Hennessy win. However before Harry Findlay had finished his victory speech I was digesting what I had seen with the future in mind.
Unlike a so-called Grand National trial run a couple of weeks prior, the Hennessy has been a stepping-stone to some decent Grand National performances over the years. Of the previous twelve Hennessy fields, 23% (46) have gone on to take their chance at Aintree that season with nine (My Will, Snowy Morning, Royal Auclair, Whats Up Boys, Bindaree, Red Marauder, Call It A Day, Addington Boy, Suny Bay) finishing at least placed – and although I don’t wish to discuss unlucky Aintree horses too much, its a figure that would have been greater had Knowhere (2008), Hedgehunter (2004), Ad Hoc (2002), Beau (2001), Fiddling The Facts (1999) and Ciel De Brion (1998) stayed on their feet.
17 of those 46 Hennessy/National runners managed of a top-5 finish at Newbury, and they account for ten of the fifteen horses listed above.
It isn’t just statistics that lead me to the bet I’m about to advise, Saturday’s 3rd (Niche Market) and 5th (Gone To Lunch) strike me as ideal Grand National types.
Last season’s Irish Grand National winner, Niche Market, is still improving and put in a sterling effort to finish among the class acts last weekend. He jumps for fun and despite his stamina he’ll travel well enough to race front rank throughout at Aintree. He looks sure to go well if allowed to take his chance.
Gone To Lunch was 2nd in the Scottish Grand National back in April and although perhaps a little quirky he has a touch of class and is a horse I’ve always felt capable of a landing a major prize. Another impeccable jumper, has an abundance of stamina, but does occasionally switch off during races. However I have a feeling the National fences will keep him interested and bring out the best in Jeremy Scott’s gelding.
With the Grand National c&d bringing out expected improvement I believe Niche Market and Gone To Lunch are two of the few well-handicapped horses in the current ante-post list.
A Grand National wager this early will always carry a degree of risk but due to the tremendous value currently on offer for the pair, I believe it is correct to strike now and put every faith in connections to keep the duo fairly weighted and allow them their chance of glory. If so, then at the very least, we will be in “free bet” territory next spring.
Niche Market 1pt win – 25/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet
Gone To Lunch 1pt win – 40/1 Bet365
(ante-post bets on a scale of 1-10pts)
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I doubt there were many eyes on the Class 5 sprint Handicap at Lingfield at 3.35pm last Friday, however I believe it a race worthy of note.
It was the quickest 5f over c&d since Arganil’s Listed win back in March, and quickest in the grade since Sand Crooner’s win back in January 2008. The 1-2-3 that day won 7 handicaps (from 18 starts) over the next three months and there is every reason to expect similar success from this race.
The front two, Ediths Boy and Ability N Delivery, went very hard from the front and the pair deserve plenty of credit for maintaining the frantic gallop, and their positions, all the way to the line. Femme De Fer did best of those from off the pace, finishing with a flourish back in 3rd.
It appears very strong form for the grade and I’ll be surprised if Ability N Delivery and Femme De Fer do not gain compensation in similar company soon.
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