Nottingham
4.00 Apotheosis 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Brighton
3.20 White Moss 0.5pt win - 5th
4.20 Cecily 0.5pt win - 4th
Bets : 18
Winners : 7
P/L : +10.13pts
ROI : 43%
I went down to Brighton but it was pretty uninspiring stuff on the south coast. I backed White Moss as I thought she was a big price in a poor race. She ran a bit flat but this was her first start since disappointing at Kempton in January and could be capable of better.
The card at Nottingham was of a better standard but looked mightily competitive. Mattamia was impressive in the 3-y-o handicap at 3.00. He had been gelded over the winter and apparently been working well at home. A follow up looks on the card, especially if turned out quickly under a penalty.
Apotheosis typically finished 4th (E/W terms only 1-2-3 due to the sole N/R) in the 4.00. Looked to be going as well as any approaching two out, but was tapped for toe before staying on again. He is worth another chance.
This Ones For Eddy is currently well treated on the turf (OR 60), and was unlucky in the 5.00. Finished a close 3rd after repeatedly denied a clear run, this performance, on going faster than ideal, proves how well handicapped he is on the green stuff. The handicapper may re-assess after this though. Back in 6th, James Pollard ran better than the form line suggests, and could find a similar race if connections can sort out his tendency to race keenly.
Wednesday, 8 April 2009
Flat 2009 (Turf) - The Story So Far...
There will be a daily review from now on, but here are my turf bets for the period between the beginning of the turf season until the blog started (bets are on a point scale of 1-3), followed by a brief review of those (and other) performances:
28th March
Expresso Star 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Charm School 0.5pts win - 7th
Planetary Motion 1pt win - 8th
Buddhist Mon 0.5pt win - 5th (saddle slipped)
(two split stakes bet)
29th March
Palace Moon 1pt win - WON 5/1
Thebes 1pt E/W - 18th
(split stakes bet)
31st March
Imaam 3pts win - WON evens (adv)
Manere Bay 1pt win - 5th
1st April
Daraiym 0.25pt E/W - WON 8/1 (adv)
If You Knew Suzy 0.25pt E/W - 11th
2nd April
Cherish The Moment 1pt win - 3rd
Tartan Gigha 1.5pts win - 5th
3rd April
Towy Valley 1.5pts win - 4th
Don't Stop Me Now 1pt win - WON 11/8
4th April
Herrera 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1 (6/1 adv)
6th April
The Galloping Shoe 1.5pts win - 2nd
Trade Centre 1pt win - 3rd
7th April
Daraiym 2pts win - WON 2/1
Bets : 15
Winners : 7
P/L : +12.13pts
ROI : 56%
Expresso Star and Palace Moon both looked well treated for in their respected races on the first weekend of the season at Doncaster. Both are potentially pattern class and they were equally impressive when winning. Charm School is the other horse to take from the Lincoln, he ran better than the form line suggests in 7th - he raced in the small group that came down the middle and would've preferred easier ground. He looks set for handicap success soon.
Also on Day 1, Opus Maximus ran with credit (despite interference) in the Spring Mile, he looks to be coming to hand this year, and Budhist Monk would've been closer in the 10f handicap had his saddle not slipped, clearly well treated at present but is far from straightforward.
Kempton hosted a decent A/W meeting alongside Doncaster and a few on the card look set for a profitable 2009; Changing The Guard ran well (3rd) in a decent 3-y-o handicap and looks sure to win again soon in lesser company. Cape Express ran much better than it originally seemed, he did very well to finish 3rd considering he chased a suicidal early gallop. In the staying race Benhego (4th) and Gee Dee Nen (5th) would've appreciated a much stronger gallop, and although ran ok, are capable of better.
Ridiculously there was no turf action on Monday 30th but one horse took my eye on the A/W at Lingfield. That horse was Set The Trend who was making his handicap debut for Andrew Balding. He was a rare debut winner for his yard back in February after being subject of market support and it looked as if the handicapper had given him a real chance to progress with his mark of 80. He had a stress fracture (pelvis) last season but connections' patience paid off and he got the better of subsequent winner Dance And Dance in that debut run. The fact he was hampered and clipped heels early in the race, and that the stables runners usually come on for their debut, made the win even more impressive. Recent Andrew Balding stable stars Dream Eater, Buccellati, Banknote, Vanderlin, Pentecost, Border Music, Diktorial, Passing Glance, Casual Look and Phoenix Reach all failed to win on debut. The only winning debutant I can remember in recent years is Kalahari Gold last season, and he went on to have a great campaign.
He was backed as if defeat was out the question for this Lingfield handicap (13/8 morning-price to 8/13 SP) but worryingly for his backers he was 'coltish' in the paddock and during the race he was very keen, refusing to settle - the pace was far from ideal. Despite this he kept on well to finish 3rd. The horse's SP will cloud many punter's judgement and this will no doubt be seen as a disappointing effort where in actual fact, under the circumstances, it was an extremely encouraging performance. Set The Trend was well backed prior to that first run so perhaps he won't improve as much as some of his stablemates after debut but he'll know a lot more on his next start and looks set for more success.
Two John Dunlop horses interested me from the Folkstone card on the last day of March. The first was the previously expensive to follow Imaam. Despite disappointing at short odds on his last three 2-y-o starts, he looked a clear form pick in a poor maiden. He beat little but the manner of the victory was impressive. He looks to have wintered well and could finally start to fulfill his potential. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper makes of this as prior to this win he looked potentially well treated (OR 79). The following race saw the handicap debut of his stable mate Manere Bay, she came to win her race but her challenge petered out and she faded inside the last. She looks sure to improve for the outing and is another that looks potentially well handicapped.
It was no surprise Daraiym got me off to a winning start in April, he looked well handicapped on some consistent A/W efforts earlier in the year. After he won at Catterick (2m) connections stated in their post-race interview that they were worried the 2m trip was far enough. It was no surprised to him follow up at Pontefract over 2m2f on the 7th April - he reluctantly made the running at Ponty and the handicapper may under rate the performance, he could complete a hat-trick.
Towy Valley was a beaten favourite at Bath (3rd April) but she will find a handicap soon on a course that suits her more. Over at Musselburgh on the same day Don't Stop Me Now looked well treated on his flat form for last season for John Hills and on his recent hurdle form and made his lenient mark pay. He could return to Musselburgh for their 'Gold Cup' on 12th April.
Although all eyes were on the Grand National last Saturday, there were some flat races of interest. Mark Johnston's Hunting Country made his seasonal debut at Lingfield, he looked the winner approaching the final furlong but faded into 5th late on. Perhaps he needed the run, perhaps he didn't fully stay the 1m4f, either way he looks sure to go close in similar company next time out and looks sure to pay his way in 2009.
Over at Newcastle, Herrera won well despite drifting alarmingly beforehand. She looked well treated on her maiden form of last season and as long as the handicapper doesn't over react there could be more to come.
Windsor hosted their first meeting of the season on Monday 6th April. Jeremy Noseda's one raced unbeaten The Galloping Shoe looked potentially well treated but ruined his chances by refusing to settle in the early stages of his race. He knuckled down well and kept on for 2nd place - compensation awaits. Trade Centre, a rare maiden winner for Willie Muir, kept on well in the last after looking outpaced at halfway (6f). Handicapped to win but looks sure to appreciate a step up to 7f.
28th March
Expresso Star 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Charm School 0.5pts win - 7th
Planetary Motion 1pt win - 8th
Buddhist Mon 0.5pt win - 5th (saddle slipped)
(two split stakes bet)
29th March
Palace Moon 1pt win - WON 5/1
Thebes 1pt E/W - 18th
(split stakes bet)
31st March
Imaam 3pts win - WON evens (adv)
Manere Bay 1pt win - 5th
1st April
Daraiym 0.25pt E/W - WON 8/1 (adv)
If You Knew Suzy 0.25pt E/W - 11th
2nd April
Cherish The Moment 1pt win - 3rd
Tartan Gigha 1.5pts win - 5th
3rd April
Towy Valley 1.5pts win - 4th
Don't Stop Me Now 1pt win - WON 11/8
4th April
Herrera 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1 (6/1 adv)
6th April
The Galloping Shoe 1.5pts win - 2nd
Trade Centre 1pt win - 3rd
7th April
Daraiym 2pts win - WON 2/1
Bets : 15
Winners : 7
P/L : +12.13pts
ROI : 56%
Expresso Star and Palace Moon both looked well treated for in their respected races on the first weekend of the season at Doncaster. Both are potentially pattern class and they were equally impressive when winning. Charm School is the other horse to take from the Lincoln, he ran better than the form line suggests in 7th - he raced in the small group that came down the middle and would've preferred easier ground. He looks set for handicap success soon.
Also on Day 1, Opus Maximus ran with credit (despite interference) in the Spring Mile, he looks to be coming to hand this year, and Budhist Monk would've been closer in the 10f handicap had his saddle not slipped, clearly well treated at present but is far from straightforward.
Kempton hosted a decent A/W meeting alongside Doncaster and a few on the card look set for a profitable 2009; Changing The Guard ran well (3rd) in a decent 3-y-o handicap and looks sure to win again soon in lesser company. Cape Express ran much better than it originally seemed, he did very well to finish 3rd considering he chased a suicidal early gallop. In the staying race Benhego (4th) and Gee Dee Nen (5th) would've appreciated a much stronger gallop, and although ran ok, are capable of better.
Ridiculously there was no turf action on Monday 30th but one horse took my eye on the A/W at Lingfield. That horse was Set The Trend who was making his handicap debut for Andrew Balding. He was a rare debut winner for his yard back in February after being subject of market support and it looked as if the handicapper had given him a real chance to progress with his mark of 80. He had a stress fracture (pelvis) last season but connections' patience paid off and he got the better of subsequent winner Dance And Dance in that debut run. The fact he was hampered and clipped heels early in the race, and that the stables runners usually come on for their debut, made the win even more impressive. Recent Andrew Balding stable stars Dream Eater, Buccellati, Banknote, Vanderlin, Pentecost, Border Music, Diktorial, Passing Glance, Casual Look and Phoenix Reach all failed to win on debut. The only winning debutant I can remember in recent years is Kalahari Gold last season, and he went on to have a great campaign.
He was backed as if defeat was out the question for this Lingfield handicap (13/8 morning-price to 8/13 SP) but worryingly for his backers he was 'coltish' in the paddock and during the race he was very keen, refusing to settle - the pace was far from ideal. Despite this he kept on well to finish 3rd. The horse's SP will cloud many punter's judgement and this will no doubt be seen as a disappointing effort where in actual fact, under the circumstances, it was an extremely encouraging performance. Set The Trend was well backed prior to that first run so perhaps he won't improve as much as some of his stablemates after debut but he'll know a lot more on his next start and looks set for more success.
Two John Dunlop horses interested me from the Folkstone card on the last day of March. The first was the previously expensive to follow Imaam. Despite disappointing at short odds on his last three 2-y-o starts, he looked a clear form pick in a poor maiden. He beat little but the manner of the victory was impressive. He looks to have wintered well and could finally start to fulfill his potential. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper makes of this as prior to this win he looked potentially well treated (OR 79). The following race saw the handicap debut of his stable mate Manere Bay, she came to win her race but her challenge petered out and she faded inside the last. She looks sure to improve for the outing and is another that looks potentially well handicapped.
It was no surprise Daraiym got me off to a winning start in April, he looked well handicapped on some consistent A/W efforts earlier in the year. After he won at Catterick (2m) connections stated in their post-race interview that they were worried the 2m trip was far enough. It was no surprised to him follow up at Pontefract over 2m2f on the 7th April - he reluctantly made the running at Ponty and the handicapper may under rate the performance, he could complete a hat-trick.
Towy Valley was a beaten favourite at Bath (3rd April) but she will find a handicap soon on a course that suits her more. Over at Musselburgh on the same day Don't Stop Me Now looked well treated on his flat form for last season for John Hills and on his recent hurdle form and made his lenient mark pay. He could return to Musselburgh for their 'Gold Cup' on 12th April.
Although all eyes were on the Grand National last Saturday, there were some flat races of interest. Mark Johnston's Hunting Country made his seasonal debut at Lingfield, he looked the winner approaching the final furlong but faded into 5th late on. Perhaps he needed the run, perhaps he didn't fully stay the 1m4f, either way he looks sure to go close in similar company next time out and looks sure to pay his way in 2009.
Over at Newcastle, Herrera won well despite drifting alarmingly beforehand. She looked well treated on her maiden form of last season and as long as the handicapper doesn't over react there could be more to come.
Windsor hosted their first meeting of the season on Monday 6th April. Jeremy Noseda's one raced unbeaten The Galloping Shoe looked potentially well treated but ruined his chances by refusing to settle in the early stages of his race. He knuckled down well and kept on for 2nd place - compensation awaits. Trade Centre, a rare maiden winner for Willie Muir, kept on well in the last after looking outpaced at halfway (6f). Handicapped to win but looks sure to appreciate a step up to 7f.
Monday, 6 April 2009
Grand National 2009 - Closure
A few of this year's Aintree races left me scratching my head, none more so than the great race itself.
The chances of Mon Mome before the race seems non-existent; beaten a long way in the race last year off a lower mark, flopped badly in the Welsh Nation earlier in the season, well behind Rambling Minster in the Blue Square Gold Cup, and tailed off in the Midlands National on his last start.
We were spoilt for choice with reasons not to back this horse, even stable jockey Aiden Coleman abandoned him in favour of fellow 100/1 shot Stan.
The horse didn't only win, he won convincingly by 12l, with only mothers and girlfriends responsible for any success stories told after.
The form looks very suspect to me, and not only because this apparent no-hoper won so impressively. There are four key points...
The chances of Mon Mome before the race seems non-existent; beaten a long way in the race last year off a lower mark, flopped badly in the Welsh Nation earlier in the season, well behind Rambling Minster in the Blue Square Gold Cup, and tailed off in the Midlands National on his last start.
We were spoilt for choice with reasons not to back this horse, even stable jockey Aiden Coleman abandoned him in favour of fellow 100/1 shot Stan.
The horse didn't only win, he won convincingly by 12l, with only mothers and girlfriends responsible for any success stories told after.
The form looks very suspect to me, and not only because this apparent no-hoper won so impressively. There are four key points...
- The manner of Mon Mome's victory
- The performance of doubtful stayer Cerium (100/1, 5th)
- The performance of doubtful stayer Arteea (200/1, 10th, shared the lead two out)
- The amount of runners in with a chance at the turn for home.
I've already spoken about the first point, but for me the other three points are as puzzling as the result itself.
Cerium, who was available at bigger odds than his 100/1 SP, finishing 5th looked an impossible target, especially considering the majority of his best form is over 2m and 2m3f being the furthest distance he'd won over.
The same can be said of Arteea, like Cerium, appeared to have little form chance and looked a doubtful stayer. This 10-y-o had also run mostly over 2m and 2m4f throughout his career with 2m4f being the furthest he'd won over - hardly your typical National types.
If this pair's chances look grim before the race, at the halfway stage their chances looked even worse, they were both well out the back. In fact they were alongside (or perhaps worse) Rambling Minster when he pulled up. How could these two non-staying, no-hopers play such a part in the finish from this desperate position? The form line of Arteea even contains the words "tailed off" - this is a horse that later had a share of the lead at the 2nd last!
Accepting one horse to massively over perform is one thing, accepting that three over perform (two of which would've needed a horsebox to stay the trip normally) is a leap of faith too far.
It made no sense to me, there must be a reason I thought.
There was also the strange sight of so many horses being in with a chance at the turn for home/approaching two out. I've never seen anything like it. Why did the field bunch so much at this stage, and why were so many suddenly in with a chance?
Are some or all of these points connected?
I decided to look at the race in great detail in a quest for the reasons behind these occurrences, at best it can help decipher this form and assist in future form study, at the very least it would provide closure - something I sorely need if I want to start sleeping again!
Many formed the opinion that Phil Smith and his compression of the handicap was the reason there were over a dozen in with a chance approaching the 2nd last - I'm not so sure, to me that's lazy analysis, and analysis should never be lazy.
The race changed drastically at Becher's (2nd time), when the leading Black Apalachi and Silver Birch (share of 2nd place) came down. Up until this point there were going a decent clip;
6:25 was on the clock at Becher's 2nd time around (6:24 was the split in 2008).
After Becher's the pace slowed drastically, the falls left Offshore Account out in front, given this was a doubtful stayer the jockey on this horse was understandably reluctant to increase the gallop.
It was almost pedestrian between Becher's and Canal Turn, over 0:31 (a good 3 secs slower than the previous two years).
The split from Becher's to the 2nd last was 2:15, compared to 2:06 (2008) and 2:05 (2007). Although the times to Becher's in 2009 and 2008 were only a second apart, 2008's final time was around 16 seconds faster.
I cannot stress how much the pace slowed from Becher's to the 2nd last - a pivotal time in any national. This is why the field bunched, and why there were so many still in with a chance at the Melling Road. It had nothing to do with the compression of the handicap!
In enabled those hopelessly tailed off at one stage, to creep into the race and it enabled many horses (including those with stamina doubts) to preserve stamina at an important point in the race.
Did this create a spring finish of sorts? Despite 2007's time being around 17 seconds faster, both splits (2007 & 2009) from the final fence to the line are identical. With regards to this year's race the final sectional doesn't fit with those that preceded it - the pace was extremely "stop-start".
The situation clearly flattered Cerium and Arteea, I'm not suggesting it flattered Mon Mome in the same way but the drop in pace certainly didn't help his nearest rivals. You'd have to think that an out and out stayer like Comply Or Die would've benefited from a sustained gallop and My Will's cruising speed (in the context of 4m4f race you understand) brought him to the fore of this dawdling group, possibly sooner than ideal.
Did it make an difference to the actual result? Who knows. At the very least I believe Mon Mome was flattered by the proximity to the 2nd.
Where does this leave us? Exactly in the same boat as things stand, but like I say, this could help when using the form for future events, or when looking at the race next year.
So when you're sitting there on the first Saturday in April 2010, don't necessarily think back and ask "what did I do wrong last year?" - you may not have done much wrong at all, regardless of the result.
Be lucky.
An Introduction
Hello, welcome to The Prophet's blog.
I'm a professional gambler and tipster and this blog will be a collection my thoughts, theories, retrospective analysis, horses to follow, and a report of past selections. A punting diary if you will.
Here's to a successful 2009.
Be lucky.
I'm a professional gambler and tipster and this blog will be a collection my thoughts, theories, retrospective analysis, horses to follow, and a report of past selections. A punting diary if you will.
Here's to a successful 2009.
Be lucky.
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