Apologies for the lack of updates. Last week was an extremeley busy time for me off the course.
On course it was a tricky few days also, not a lot went right - a similar story for a lot of punters with it being Chester week. Will get a summary up asap.
Monday, 11 May 2009
Tuesday, 5 May 2009
Drawing to Conclusions
Much is made of the draw at Chester, especially over shorter distances in double-figure fields. Just how suicidal is it to back horses drawn high in those races?
How much is myth and how much is reality?
Below I have singled out the four races that fit the bill from the spring festival.
Race 1
5f Class 2 Handicap on day one, usually race four.
Looking at the past 11 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
7-2-8 (14)
6-7-4 (13)
2-4-8 (15)
6-1-4 (14)
4-2-1 (14)
1-5-6 (14)
3-1-5 (16)
8-2-5 (12)
6-4-1 (12)
6-1-2 (10)
4-2-3 (8)
Winners: 36% drawn low, 64% drawn middle, 0% drawn high
Placed: 64% drawn low, 36% drawn middle, 0% drawn high
------------
Race 2
6f Class 3 Handicap (3yo) on day two, usually last race
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
2-11-3 (12)
6-8-1 (10)
9-4-6 (10)
13-12-7 (14)
1-5-6 (14)
1-4-6 (14)
2-6-8 (15)
12-9-16 (16)
6-1-5 (16)
9-11-3 (15)
Winners : 40% low, 30% middle, 30% high
Placed : 40% low, 33% middle, 27% high
------------
Race 3
7f Class 2 Handicap on day three, usually first race
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
6-4-1 (11)
5-6-3 (12)
10-4-8 (9)
13-5-9 (18)
1-4-3 (18)
4-3-2 (16)
2-14-3 (17)
16-6-5 (18)
3-1-13 (17)
7-5-4 (17)
Winners : 40% low, 30% middle, 30% high
Placed : 60% low, 20% middle, 20% low
------------
Race 4
5f Class 2 Handicap (3yo) on day three, usually race four
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
7-3-9 (8)
3-6-1 (8)
1-5-9 (12)
4-6-2 (10)
7-8-14 (15)
8-1-6 (15)
11-1-5 (10)
1-7-4 (14)
4-1-5 (12)
5-2-3 (12)
Winners : 50% low, 30% middle, 20% high
Placed : 47% low, 37% middle, 17% high
If we ignore those races with less runners (10 or less) ...
Winners : 50% low, 50% middle, 0% high
Placed : 44% low, 44% middle, 11% high
------------
On races 2 and 3 we see that highs do seem to be at a slight disadvantage. Although this should be factored in when deciphering a race, the disadvantage isn't great enough to discount a horse on draw alone.
Races 1 and 4 is where the bias really kicks in. Both races are over the minimum trip and of 5f and the speed the runners hit the first bend makes it extremely difficult for those drawn high.
In the all-age handicap on day one (Race 1), no horse in the high third of the draw has even made the frame. Interestingly, middle drawn horses have a better win record than lows, perhaps suggesting that if breaks are missed on the inside it can be difficult to get into a winning position thereafter.
It's a similar story with the 3y0 handicap on the final day (Race 4) , especially when looking at those races with 12 or more runners. Those drawn in the lower two thirds of the draw performing well, accounting for 89% of all horses placed.
The bias is slightly stronger for Race 1, maybe due to the speed these seasoned handicappers leave the gates and hit the first bend, as opposed to the 3yos in Race 4.
Without doubt it is a disadvantage to be drawn high in most races at Chester, although it's possible to overcome this with class or a good ride, however in big fields over 5f, there is an argument (at least) for ignoring horses on draw alone.
Be lucky.
How much is myth and how much is reality?
Below I have singled out the four races that fit the bill from the spring festival.
Race 1
5f Class 2 Handicap on day one, usually race four.
Looking at the past 11 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
7-2-8 (14)
6-7-4 (13)
2-4-8 (15)
6-1-4 (14)
4-2-1 (14)
1-5-6 (14)
3-1-5 (16)
8-2-5 (12)
6-4-1 (12)
6-1-2 (10)
4-2-3 (8)
Winners: 36% drawn low, 64% drawn middle, 0% drawn high
Placed: 64% drawn low, 36% drawn middle, 0% drawn high
------------
Race 2
6f Class 3 Handicap (3yo) on day two, usually last race
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
2-11-3 (12)
6-8-1 (10)
9-4-6 (10)
13-12-7 (14)
1-5-6 (14)
1-4-6 (14)
2-6-8 (15)
12-9-16 (16)
6-1-5 (16)
9-11-3 (15)
Winners : 40% low, 30% middle, 30% high
Placed : 40% low, 33% middle, 27% high
------------
Race 3
7f Class 2 Handicap on day three, usually first race
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
6-4-1 (11)
5-6-3 (12)
10-4-8 (9)
13-5-9 (18)
1-4-3 (18)
4-3-2 (16)
2-14-3 (17)
16-6-5 (18)
3-1-13 (17)
7-5-4 (17)
Winners : 40% low, 30% middle, 30% high
Placed : 60% low, 20% middle, 20% low
------------
Race 4
5f Class 2 Handicap (3yo) on day three, usually race four
Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners;
7-3-9 (8)
3-6-1 (8)
1-5-9 (12)
4-6-2 (10)
7-8-14 (15)
8-1-6 (15)
11-1-5 (10)
1-7-4 (14)
4-1-5 (12)
5-2-3 (12)
Winners : 50% low, 30% middle, 20% high
Placed : 47% low, 37% middle, 17% high
If we ignore those races with less runners (10 or less) ...
Winners : 50% low, 50% middle, 0% high
Placed : 44% low, 44% middle, 11% high
------------
On races 2 and 3 we see that highs do seem to be at a slight disadvantage. Although this should be factored in when deciphering a race, the disadvantage isn't great enough to discount a horse on draw alone.
Races 1 and 4 is where the bias really kicks in. Both races are over the minimum trip and of 5f and the speed the runners hit the first bend makes it extremely difficult for those drawn high.
In the all-age handicap on day one (Race 1), no horse in the high third of the draw has even made the frame. Interestingly, middle drawn horses have a better win record than lows, perhaps suggesting that if breaks are missed on the inside it can be difficult to get into a winning position thereafter.
It's a similar story with the 3y0 handicap on the final day (Race 4) , especially when looking at those races with 12 or more runners. Those drawn in the lower two thirds of the draw performing well, accounting for 89% of all horses placed.
The bias is slightly stronger for Race 1, maybe due to the speed these seasoned handicappers leave the gates and hit the first bend, as opposed to the 3yos in Race 4.
Without doubt it is a disadvantage to be drawn high in most races at Chester, although it's possible to overcome this with class or a good ride, however in big fields over 5f, there is an argument (at least) for ignoring horses on draw alone.
Be lucky.
Monday 4th May
Kempton
2.30
Lenny Bee 1pt win - 2nd
3.30
Invisible Man 1pt win - 4th
5.00
Dayia 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 4/1 (adv)
Warwick
3.10
Resentful Angel 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 7/1 (adv)
3.40
Glen Molly 1pt win - 3rd
Trip Switch 0.5pt win - 6th
Newcastle
3.15 Just Timmy Marcus 0.5pt E/W - unpl
Beverley
3.20
Tartan Gigha 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv)
7.5pts staked, 6.68pts returned (-0.82pts).
Selections continue to win or go close. After two big priced 2nds yesterday, to have another three today was frustrating.
In the 3.20 at Beverley, Tartan Gigha took full advantage of recent leniency from the handicapper with a clear cut victory. I'd recently felt Mark Johnston's gelding preferred polytrack but off a mark of 81 I thought he was worth chancing on turf. The stiff finish of Beverley was ideal and the win never looked in doubt.
Onto Kempton where I thought Lenny Bee had a major chance on handicap debut. He was slowly away and despite making up plenty of ground to finish 2nd he was never in a position to actually win the race.
Invisible Man was a decent 3rd behind Infiraad at Newmarket but he never looked happy back on polytrack in the 3.30 maiden. He was beaten at 1/3 on debut at Great Leighs on his first attempt. He may be worth another chance back on turf.
Uniquely Poised was an impressive winner of the following maiden and will be interesting in handicaps. Sam Sharp, 2nd after a lay-off for Henry Cecil, travelled well before getting tapped of toe, he stayed on well once beaten and should come on a bundle for this run.
In the staying handicap at 5.00, Dayia deserves plenty of credit for getting herself in a winning position before eventually finishing 2nd. A stronger end to end gallop will suit more in the future and success doesn't look too far away.
Just Timmy Marcus (3.15 Newcastle) was a drifter all day but travelled well in rear. He didn't looked entirely happy on the rain softened ground when asked for his effort, and wasn't knocked about thereafter.
African Cheetah was one that thrived on the softer going at Newcastle and he run away with the 1m2f maiden. He was 3rd behind Bothy on his last start and that race is starting to work out well.
Seasonal Cross came from a different parish to finish 3rd in the apprentice handicap at Warwick. She looks sure to find a small race for Simon Dow in the near future.
In the 7f fillies handicap Resentful Angel was rushed up to take the lead and plenty of use was made of her early on. Despite this she galloped all the way to the line and stayed on once headed to finish 2nd beaten less than a length. This was a decent effort give how the race was run and she may even be worth another crack at a mile.
The opposite can be said regarding Glen Molly and Trip Switch, who may appreciate dropping down from 7f to 6f. They travelled well enough in the 3.40 (7f) but didn't really finish their races.
Look To This Day made a pleasing return over 1m4f at Windsor and she should find a race over slightly further.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 133
Winners 50
P/L +39.20pts
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 33
Winners 13
P/L +15.10pts
ROI 41%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 91
Winners 32
P/L +15.09
ROI 14%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
2.30
Lenny Bee 1pt win - 2nd
3.30
Invisible Man 1pt win - 4th
5.00
Dayia 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 4/1 (adv)
Warwick
3.10
Resentful Angel 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 7/1 (adv)
3.40
Glen Molly 1pt win - 3rd
Trip Switch 0.5pt win - 6th
Newcastle
3.15 Just Timmy Marcus 0.5pt E/W - unpl
Beverley
3.20
Tartan Gigha 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv)
7.5pts staked, 6.68pts returned (-0.82pts).
Selections continue to win or go close. After two big priced 2nds yesterday, to have another three today was frustrating.
In the 3.20 at Beverley, Tartan Gigha took full advantage of recent leniency from the handicapper with a clear cut victory. I'd recently felt Mark Johnston's gelding preferred polytrack but off a mark of 81 I thought he was worth chancing on turf. The stiff finish of Beverley was ideal and the win never looked in doubt.
Onto Kempton where I thought Lenny Bee had a major chance on handicap debut. He was slowly away and despite making up plenty of ground to finish 2nd he was never in a position to actually win the race.
Invisible Man was a decent 3rd behind Infiraad at Newmarket but he never looked happy back on polytrack in the 3.30 maiden. He was beaten at 1/3 on debut at Great Leighs on his first attempt. He may be worth another chance back on turf.
Uniquely Poised was an impressive winner of the following maiden and will be interesting in handicaps. Sam Sharp, 2nd after a lay-off for Henry Cecil, travelled well before getting tapped of toe, he stayed on well once beaten and should come on a bundle for this run.
In the staying handicap at 5.00, Dayia deserves plenty of credit for getting herself in a winning position before eventually finishing 2nd. A stronger end to end gallop will suit more in the future and success doesn't look too far away.
Just Timmy Marcus (3.15 Newcastle) was a drifter all day but travelled well in rear. He didn't looked entirely happy on the rain softened ground when asked for his effort, and wasn't knocked about thereafter.
African Cheetah was one that thrived on the softer going at Newcastle and he run away with the 1m2f maiden. He was 3rd behind Bothy on his last start and that race is starting to work out well.
Seasonal Cross came from a different parish to finish 3rd in the apprentice handicap at Warwick. She looks sure to find a small race for Simon Dow in the near future.
In the 7f fillies handicap Resentful Angel was rushed up to take the lead and plenty of use was made of her early on. Despite this she galloped all the way to the line and stayed on once headed to finish 2nd beaten less than a length. This was a decent effort give how the race was run and she may even be worth another crack at a mile.
The opposite can be said regarding Glen Molly and Trip Switch, who may appreciate dropping down from 7f to 6f. They travelled well enough in the 3.40 (7f) but didn't really finish their races.
Look To This Day made a pleasing return over 1m4f at Windsor and she should find a race over slightly further.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 133
Winners 50
P/L +39.20pts
ROI 25%
All-Weather
Bets 33
Winners 13
P/L +15.10pts
ROI 41%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 91
Winners 32
P/L +15.09
ROI 14%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Monday, 4 May 2009
Sunday 3rd May
Newmarket
2.00
Precision Break 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Dance The Star 0.25pt E/W - unpl
2.35
Casilda 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 25/1 (adv) - N/R all bets revert to win only
3.50
Thebes 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Fullandby 0.25pt E/W - unpl
5.35
Mutamaashi 1pt win - N/R
Hamilton
3.00
This Ones For Eddy 1pt win - 3rd
Colonel Sherman 0.25pt E/W - unlp
5.20
Virtuality 0.25pt E/W - 8th
4.5pts staked, 1.25pts returned (-3.25pts).
Precision Break ran a nice race on his reappearance (2.00 Newmarket), especially as it was reported he lost a shoe. He will be interesting when returned to longer trips.
I was very disappointed to see a N/R in the 2.35, the value E/W bet on Casilda reverted to a win bet. As I expected the filly ran a race that belied her odds and she was a decent 2nd to Heaven Sent. I hope any callers that placed their bets after the N/R realised the E/W terms had changed and had a saver F/C (paid over £6). I was disappointed to see Casilda in this race as I believe she was a handicap good thing off her current mark, however you cannot blame connections and they now have some valuable black type and £14,000 in prize money. The handicapper will have his say on this effort so from a punting point of view she could be the one that got away.
Rainbow View was disappointing in the 1000 Guineas with connections immediately blaming the fast ground. She wouldn't be the first horse from the yard to disappoint in a Guineas (Raven's Pass, Nanina), and like those two, I expect her to improve steadily throughout the year and find Group 1 success at a later date. Serious Attitude travelled as well as any but looked a non-stayer. The winner Ghanaati was an unknown quantity and it wasn't the biggest shock to me when it was her that took advantage of the leading protagonist's below par runs. I knew Laudatory was well handicapped off 77 last month at Kempton!
Thebes is very consistent, and although I believe he will benefit from some headgear, I could not ignore him at the morning price of 16/1. Connections reverted to the previously successful front running tactics and I believed that helped. He travelled strongly throughout and looked the winner until Evens And Odds came with a surging run. Thebes is happier when bowling along in front, however I still thought he failed to finish his race once again. I don't recall many (if any) Mark Johnston horses wearing headgear so I don't think my pleas will be answered. Fullandby was another who hated the ground this weekend.
For the 2nd time this week I beat the odds massively with This Ones For Eddy and for the 2nd time this week he was beaten despite running well, this time in the "jump jockey's race" at Hamilton. For all my admiration of the jump boys, for the most part they have been tactically inept in the two recent races of this type, then again I don't suppose Jamie Spencer would impress on a novice chaser at Plumpton. I still believe there is another race in This Ones For Eddy, he rallied once headed, unusual for a front runner so I have to think Barry Keniry got plenty wrong with the ride, also Graham Lee failed to give Rosko (2nd) a chance to actual win the race.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 126
Winners 47
P/L +40.02pts
ROI 27%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 87
Winners 30
P/L +13.91
ROI 13%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
2.00
Precision Break 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Dance The Star 0.25pt E/W - unpl
2.35
Casilda 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 25/1 (adv) - N/R all bets revert to win only
3.50
Thebes 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Fullandby 0.25pt E/W - unpl
5.35
Mutamaashi 1pt win - N/R
Hamilton
3.00
This Ones For Eddy 1pt win - 3rd
Colonel Sherman 0.25pt E/W - unlp
5.20
Virtuality 0.25pt E/W - 8th
4.5pts staked, 1.25pts returned (-3.25pts).
Precision Break ran a nice race on his reappearance (2.00 Newmarket), especially as it was reported he lost a shoe. He will be interesting when returned to longer trips.
I was very disappointed to see a N/R in the 2.35, the value E/W bet on Casilda reverted to a win bet. As I expected the filly ran a race that belied her odds and she was a decent 2nd to Heaven Sent. I hope any callers that placed their bets after the N/R realised the E/W terms had changed and had a saver F/C (paid over £6). I was disappointed to see Casilda in this race as I believe she was a handicap good thing off her current mark, however you cannot blame connections and they now have some valuable black type and £14,000 in prize money. The handicapper will have his say on this effort so from a punting point of view she could be the one that got away.
Rainbow View was disappointing in the 1000 Guineas with connections immediately blaming the fast ground. She wouldn't be the first horse from the yard to disappoint in a Guineas (Raven's Pass, Nanina), and like those two, I expect her to improve steadily throughout the year and find Group 1 success at a later date. Serious Attitude travelled as well as any but looked a non-stayer. The winner Ghanaati was an unknown quantity and it wasn't the biggest shock to me when it was her that took advantage of the leading protagonist's below par runs. I knew Laudatory was well handicapped off 77 last month at Kempton!
Thebes is very consistent, and although I believe he will benefit from some headgear, I could not ignore him at the morning price of 16/1. Connections reverted to the previously successful front running tactics and I believed that helped. He travelled strongly throughout and looked the winner until Evens And Odds came with a surging run. Thebes is happier when bowling along in front, however I still thought he failed to finish his race once again. I don't recall many (if any) Mark Johnston horses wearing headgear so I don't think my pleas will be answered. Fullandby was another who hated the ground this weekend.
For the 2nd time this week I beat the odds massively with This Ones For Eddy and for the 2nd time this week he was beaten despite running well, this time in the "jump jockey's race" at Hamilton. For all my admiration of the jump boys, for the most part they have been tactically inept in the two recent races of this type, then again I don't suppose Jamie Spencer would impress on a novice chaser at Plumpton. I still believe there is another race in This Ones For Eddy, he rallied once headed, unusual for a front runner so I have to think Barry Keniry got plenty wrong with the ride, also Graham Lee failed to give Rosko (2nd) a chance to actual win the race.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 126
Winners 47
P/L +40.02pts
ROI 27%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 87
Winners 30
P/L +13.91
ROI 13%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Sunday, 3 May 2009
Saturday 2nd May
Newmarket
2.00
Deep Winter 0.25pt E/W - unpl
Mohathab 0.25pt E/W - unpl
3.10
Monitor Closely 0.25pt E/W - 8th
Lord Shanakill 0.25pt E/W - unpl
4.55
Sopranist 1pt win - 7th
Spring Of Fame 0.5pt win - 3rd
5.30
Photographic 1pt win - WON 3/1
Goodwood
2.20
King Olav 0.5pt win - 2nd
2.55
Born Tobouggie 1pt win - 3rd
Sawab 0.25pt E/W - 8th
4.40
Devil To Pay 1pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)
Doncaster
5.40
Empowered 1pt win - WON 15/8 (adv) 10p R4
8.5pts stakes, 11.7pts returned (+3.2pts).
Mohathab was well backed for the opener but finished tailed off and eased, obviously feeling the effects of the ground - clearly better was expected. The combination of ground and some harsh handicapping seemed to stop Deep Winter's progress.
Full marks to Channel 4 for their explanation of how horses can be ground dependent due to their action. It's common knowledge that Casual Conquest wouldn't want fast ground, but the TV close-ups on Saturday really showed how "shouldery" this horse's action is. He never looked comfortably hitting this firm ground as hard as his action forces him to and the over priced Bronze Cannon took full advantage. Spanish Moon blotted his copybook yet again, refusing to enter the stalls.
Unlike some pundits, who believe we saw a superstar of Saturday, the 2000 Guineas left me cold. I see no reason to suggest this is even an average renewal, especially as I cannot help but think that perhaps Delegator left a bit on the course back on Craven day. Monitor Closely ran a cracker in 8th, one of the first off the bridle he stayed on well after the dip. He will do well over 10f plus this season. Sea The Star is now as short of 5/2 for the Derby - there will be a separate post on this matter in a few days.
In the 4.55, Sopranist looked all at sea on this fast going and Spring Of Fame failed to show his form for Godolphin and/or on turf.
The handicapper was lenient with Photographic given the manner of her debut success and she won the last comfortably. Connections may now try their luck in pattern company. Ave, back in 3rd will be winning soon, she looks well handicapped on last years form which included the sole defeat of the since improved Ghanaati.
At Goodwood, King Olav ran a solid race in the first but was no match for the winner.
Born Tobouggie confirmed Kempton placings with those who re-opposed her here but could only manage 3rd overall. She travelled well and I won't be writing her off.
The early bird catches the worm and I was that was indeed the case with the 4.40. Devil To Pay looked a horse potentially in the wrong grade and the 4/1 morning price looked huge. Those odds lasted until around 11:20am and he shortened further throughout the day and went off 13/8! He looked a little awkward on the turn and when Seb Sanders looked down soon after I feared the worse, he was then hampered by the runner-up which resulted in his losing his place (traded at 38 in-running at this point), however he picked up and stayed on well to score. Everything went wrong for this horse so he deserves plenty of credit for this win and should win more races.
The Thirsk Hunt Cup went to Flawed Genius, on this blog after his last run I made the following comments:
"although he isn't totally straightforward Flawed Genius was never put in the race. They were strung out at halfway due to a frantic pace and the horse did not receive the cover a horse of his type needs. "
He was given a much better ride by Neil Callan in this race and being short of room momentarily late on even helped his cause. The return of the tongue-tie also helped and his win came as no surprise.
It was always going to be a matter of time before Empowered won a handicap and Willie Haggas' well handicapped 4yo made no mistake in the opener at Doncaster, despite veering right when making his challenge. He has unlimited potential and should be one to follow.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 121
Winners 46
P/L +43.27pts
ROI 30%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 82
Winners 29
P/L +17.16pts
ROI 17%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
2.00
Deep Winter 0.25pt E/W - unpl
Mohathab 0.25pt E/W - unpl
3.10
Monitor Closely 0.25pt E/W - 8th
Lord Shanakill 0.25pt E/W - unpl
4.55
Sopranist 1pt win - 7th
Spring Of Fame 0.5pt win - 3rd
5.30
Photographic 1pt win - WON 3/1
Goodwood
2.20
King Olav 0.5pt win - 2nd
2.55
Born Tobouggie 1pt win - 3rd
Sawab 0.25pt E/W - 8th
4.40
Devil To Pay 1pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)
Doncaster
5.40
Empowered 1pt win - WON 15/8 (adv) 10p R4
8.5pts stakes, 11.7pts returned (+3.2pts).
Mohathab was well backed for the opener but finished tailed off and eased, obviously feeling the effects of the ground - clearly better was expected. The combination of ground and some harsh handicapping seemed to stop Deep Winter's progress.
Full marks to Channel 4 for their explanation of how horses can be ground dependent due to their action. It's common knowledge that Casual Conquest wouldn't want fast ground, but the TV close-ups on Saturday really showed how "shouldery" this horse's action is. He never looked comfortably hitting this firm ground as hard as his action forces him to and the over priced Bronze Cannon took full advantage. Spanish Moon blotted his copybook yet again, refusing to enter the stalls.
Unlike some pundits, who believe we saw a superstar of Saturday, the 2000 Guineas left me cold. I see no reason to suggest this is even an average renewal, especially as I cannot help but think that perhaps Delegator left a bit on the course back on Craven day. Monitor Closely ran a cracker in 8th, one of the first off the bridle he stayed on well after the dip. He will do well over 10f plus this season. Sea The Star is now as short of 5/2 for the Derby - there will be a separate post on this matter in a few days.
In the 4.55, Sopranist looked all at sea on this fast going and Spring Of Fame failed to show his form for Godolphin and/or on turf.
The handicapper was lenient with Photographic given the manner of her debut success and she won the last comfortably. Connections may now try their luck in pattern company. Ave, back in 3rd will be winning soon, she looks well handicapped on last years form which included the sole defeat of the since improved Ghanaati.
At Goodwood, King Olav ran a solid race in the first but was no match for the winner.
Born Tobouggie confirmed Kempton placings with those who re-opposed her here but could only manage 3rd overall. She travelled well and I won't be writing her off.
The early bird catches the worm and I was that was indeed the case with the 4.40. Devil To Pay looked a horse potentially in the wrong grade and the 4/1 morning price looked huge. Those odds lasted until around 11:20am and he shortened further throughout the day and went off 13/8! He looked a little awkward on the turn and when Seb Sanders looked down soon after I feared the worse, he was then hampered by the runner-up which resulted in his losing his place (traded at 38 in-running at this point), however he picked up and stayed on well to score. Everything went wrong for this horse so he deserves plenty of credit for this win and should win more races.
The Thirsk Hunt Cup went to Flawed Genius, on this blog after his last run I made the following comments:
"although he isn't totally straightforward Flawed Genius was never put in the race. They were strung out at halfway due to a frantic pace and the horse did not receive the cover a horse of his type needs. "
He was given a much better ride by Neil Callan in this race and being short of room momentarily late on even helped his cause. The return of the tongue-tie also helped and his win came as no surprise.
It was always going to be a matter of time before Empowered won a handicap and Willie Haggas' well handicapped 4yo made no mistake in the opener at Doncaster, despite veering right when making his challenge. He has unlimited potential and should be one to follow.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 121
Winners 46
P/L +43.27pts
ROI 30%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 82
Winners 29
P/L +17.16pts
ROI 17%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Saturday, 2 May 2009
Friday 1st May
Musselburgh
3.30
Sirvino 1pt win - WON 5/2
4.05
Cheveton 1pt win - 2nd
4.40
Miss Keck 0.75pt win - 6th
Merrion Tiger 0.25pt win - 2nd 14/1 (adv)
5.15
Opus Maximus 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Lingfield
5.05
Montbretia 0.5pt win - 4th
Ancient Lights 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 25/1
A pleasing day (+5.5pts), every bet going close or winning.
At Musselburgh, Sirvino needed every inch of the 9f trip in the 3.30 but was a dicisive winner come the finish. A hat-trick looks a real possibility with the liklehood of a return to 10f next time out.
Cheveton (4.05) has progressed into a really decent sprinter and given the ground was quicker than ideal he lost nothing in defeat. The winner Spin Cycle picked up well and won with a bit in hand, he is a useful.
Merrion Tiger ran a game race in the 1m6f handicap, he took up proceedings over 3f out and was only collared in the final half furlong. He was undone by a strong challenge from That'll Do Nicely who could follow up if the handicapper is fair. Miss Keck back in 6th will appreciate a return to 2m.
Opus Maximus had shaped as if coming to hand (an unlucky in-running 7th in the Spring Mile especially encouraging) and with the handicapper easing him 3lb he looked to hold a major chance in the 5.15. He had the race won some way out and was value for more than the winning distance.
One of the most interested races of the day was the 7f maiden at Lingfield (1.40). I didn't play in the race but have the feeling I will be backing a few of the participants over the coming months. The race was won by the Michael Stoute trained 4yo Tryst who hadn't been seen since going down by a short-head in last season's Wood Ditton. He has been gelded since and the fact that Chevely Park and Michael Stoute have kept this horse rather than sending him to the sales should not be ignored. He is sureto pay his way this season. Makaam was runner-up for the 2nd time in two career starts, his debut 2nd has worked out well so far. It was a decent effort considering he was a little keen early and future success looks a formality. Euston Square, 3rd to Infiraad on his previous start, filled the same spot in this after running on well. He came off the bridle earlier than the front two and perhaps will improve over further. Roar Of The King and Satwa Star showed glimpses of ability on debut.
I thought Ancient Lights was a most interesting runner in the 5.05. He was highly regarded by Henry Cecil last season and justified favouritism on his debut last May. He flopped on his 2nd and final start last season and is obviously difficult to train. Connections have kept faith in him and given he was given a more realistic target I thought he was worth chancing at the price. He was weak in the market on the exchanges during the day, and on course, but ran a fine race to finish 3rd. He looks sure to make up for lost time if he can be kept sweet.
I felt there were more races to be won with Benhego on the flat so connections decision to switch him over hurdles this soon should be noted. He made his debut in the 5.40 at Fontwell and despite some jumping errors he won cosily enough. He is an interesting prospect over hurdles although I wouldn't rule out a return to the flat at some point.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 113
Winners 43
P/L +40.07pts
ROI 30%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 74
Winners 26
P/L +13.96pts
ROI 15%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
3.30
Sirvino 1pt win - WON 5/2
4.05
Cheveton 1pt win - 2nd
4.40
Miss Keck 0.75pt win - 6th
Merrion Tiger 0.25pt win - 2nd 14/1 (adv)
5.15
Opus Maximus 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Lingfield
5.05
Montbretia 0.5pt win - 4th
Ancient Lights 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 25/1
A pleasing day (+5.5pts), every bet going close or winning.
At Musselburgh, Sirvino needed every inch of the 9f trip in the 3.30 but was a dicisive winner come the finish. A hat-trick looks a real possibility with the liklehood of a return to 10f next time out.
Cheveton (4.05) has progressed into a really decent sprinter and given the ground was quicker than ideal he lost nothing in defeat. The winner Spin Cycle picked up well and won with a bit in hand, he is a useful.
Merrion Tiger ran a game race in the 1m6f handicap, he took up proceedings over 3f out and was only collared in the final half furlong. He was undone by a strong challenge from That'll Do Nicely who could follow up if the handicapper is fair. Miss Keck back in 6th will appreciate a return to 2m.
Opus Maximus had shaped as if coming to hand (an unlucky in-running 7th in the Spring Mile especially encouraging) and with the handicapper easing him 3lb he looked to hold a major chance in the 5.15. He had the race won some way out and was value for more than the winning distance.
One of the most interested races of the day was the 7f maiden at Lingfield (1.40). I didn't play in the race but have the feeling I will be backing a few of the participants over the coming months. The race was won by the Michael Stoute trained 4yo Tryst who hadn't been seen since going down by a short-head in last season's Wood Ditton. He has been gelded since and the fact that Chevely Park and Michael Stoute have kept this horse rather than sending him to the sales should not be ignored. He is sureto pay his way this season. Makaam was runner-up for the 2nd time in two career starts, his debut 2nd has worked out well so far. It was a decent effort considering he was a little keen early and future success looks a formality. Euston Square, 3rd to Infiraad on his previous start, filled the same spot in this after running on well. He came off the bridle earlier than the front two and perhaps will improve over further. Roar Of The King and Satwa Star showed glimpses of ability on debut.
I thought Ancient Lights was a most interesting runner in the 5.05. He was highly regarded by Henry Cecil last season and justified favouritism on his debut last May. He flopped on his 2nd and final start last season and is obviously difficult to train. Connections have kept faith in him and given he was given a more realistic target I thought he was worth chancing at the price. He was weak in the market on the exchanges during the day, and on course, but ran a fine race to finish 3rd. He looks sure to make up for lost time if he can be kept sweet.
I felt there were more races to be won with Benhego on the flat so connections decision to switch him over hurdles this soon should be noted. He made his debut in the 5.40 at Fontwell and despite some jumping errors he won cosily enough. He is an interesting prospect over hurdles although I wouldn't rule out a return to the flat at some point.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 113
Winners 43
P/L +40.07pts
ROI 30%
All-Weather
Bets 30
Winners 12
P/L +17.10pts
ROI 50%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 74
Winners 26
P/L +13.96pts
ROI 15%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
Friday, 1 May 2009
Thursday 30th April
Fokstone
2.10
Desert Auction 1pt win - WON 10/11
3.20
Chasca 0.5pt win - WON 9/2 (15p R4)
Dream Catch Me 0.25pt E/W - unpl
5.05
Annabelle's Charm 0.5pt E/W - WON 4/1
A clean sweep resulting in 4.83pts profit, I perhaps played it a little too cagey with regards to stakes.
For me, all the best action was at Folkstone. Desert Auction looked a good thing to get off the mark in the first. He showed a similar level of form on both starts to date behind two decent early types, any unraced rival would have to be above average to trouble him. His experience told and he was made just about all.
The sprint maiden at 2.45 should throw up winners, in the right grade. Was impressed with the winner Chris's Jem, who seems to be improving with every outing. The handicapper could be lenient with her due to the ratings of those in behind, I'm hoping for a sub-72 mark.
Aegean King back 6th made good late headway after getting outpaced from a wide draw. He is sure to appreciate further, although the handicapper will no doubt take into account his trainer (Michael Wigham) when assessing him.
As well as the jolly (Billy Beetroot) Stuart Williams saddled Sircozy who was subject support at big prices. He was badly outpaced in rear until picking up well inside the last furlong, finishing as well as any into 8th. He qualifies for handicaps now and can be competitive, given his likely mark, over further.
Chasca did well to win the 3.20 fairly comfortably considering the ground may have been quicker than ideal (by Namid). Her previous run at Lingfield had to be totally ignored due to the farcical pace that day. Not the greatest race in the wolrd, I'm not a fan of the filly in 2nd, but Chasca is a likable sort and can win again. Dream Catch Me lost her chance before the race by bolting, she may find a small race when allowed to run off her actual mark in the 40s.
Annabelle's Charm was undoubtebly well handicapped but failed to win on two handicap starts to date. I don't think she was given the greatest rides in the world by Jamie Spencer on those occasions so was happy to give her another chance here. More aggresively ridden by Dane O'Neil the victory never looked in doubt. There are more races in her but her future clearly lies in the paddocks.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 108
Winners 40
P/L +34.57pts
ROI 27%
All-Weather
Bets 29
Winners 11
P/L +16.60pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 70
Winners 24
P/L +8.96pts
ROI 10%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
2.10
Desert Auction 1pt win - WON 10/11
3.20
Chasca 0.5pt win - WON 9/2 (15p R4)
Dream Catch Me 0.25pt E/W - unpl
5.05
Annabelle's Charm 0.5pt E/W - WON 4/1
A clean sweep resulting in 4.83pts profit, I perhaps played it a little too cagey with regards to stakes.
For me, all the best action was at Folkstone. Desert Auction looked a good thing to get off the mark in the first. He showed a similar level of form on both starts to date behind two decent early types, any unraced rival would have to be above average to trouble him. His experience told and he was made just about all.
The sprint maiden at 2.45 should throw up winners, in the right grade. Was impressed with the winner Chris's Jem, who seems to be improving with every outing. The handicapper could be lenient with her due to the ratings of those in behind, I'm hoping for a sub-72 mark.
Aegean King back 6th made good late headway after getting outpaced from a wide draw. He is sure to appreciate further, although the handicapper will no doubt take into account his trainer (Michael Wigham) when assessing him.
As well as the jolly (Billy Beetroot) Stuart Williams saddled Sircozy who was subject support at big prices. He was badly outpaced in rear until picking up well inside the last furlong, finishing as well as any into 8th. He qualifies for handicaps now and can be competitive, given his likely mark, over further.
Chasca did well to win the 3.20 fairly comfortably considering the ground may have been quicker than ideal (by Namid). Her previous run at Lingfield had to be totally ignored due to the farcical pace that day. Not the greatest race in the wolrd, I'm not a fan of the filly in 2nd, but Chasca is a likable sort and can win again. Dream Catch Me lost her chance before the race by bolting, she may find a small race when allowed to run off her actual mark in the 40s.
Annabelle's Charm was undoubtebly well handicapped but failed to win on two handicap starts to date. I don't think she was given the greatest rides in the world by Jamie Spencer on those occasions so was happy to give her another chance here. More aggresively ridden by Dane O'Neil the victory never looked in doubt. There are more races in her but her future clearly lies in the paddocks.
Will keep records of N.H. and A/W bets since the blog started, alongside the full Flat (turf) record...
Combined
Bets 108
Winners 40
P/L +34.57pts
ROI 27%
All-Weather
Bets 29
Winners 11
P/L +16.60pts
ROI 50%
National Hunt
Bets 9
Winners 5
P/L +9.01pts
ROI 90%
Flat (turf) 2009
Bets 70
Winners 24
P/L +8.96pts
ROI 10%
All bets proofed to Racing Post
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